imSiankO

what are villain stats?

You do get called by worst on the flop, HJ's range should contain a lot of two broadway cards, so he's probably going to peel at least the flop with his gutshots, he's also unlikely to fold QQ/JJ if he doesnt 3bet those pre in those positions. You can't give both BB and HJ's range a free card with that flop texture, it's just too drawy, therefore you should cbet the flop both for value and for protection.

I would probably cbet slightly bigger on the river as you said he's folding everything that doesn't have an A in it looks he either has a good kicker or he's fishy/weak (for flatting a random Ax bad kicker OOP vs EP/MP) he's still not going to fold his TP, it also allows you to rep better a busted flush draw, for those reasons i'd probably bet around $9.50 on the river.

get the hell out of there with those two nitty 3betters starting to put so much money in the middle when you opened EP.

Fwiw, i did call and turn was the 8h, so i just check folded as he bet something like 65% pot.

your call pre is a mistake.. you're not really deep enough to setmine, so unless you have a very strong solid read on villain that makes you think that you're going to be able to turn your hand into a bluff often enough for you to show a profit, you shouldn't be calling his 3bet, it's just not profitable.
You outlined it yourself that his 3betting range from that position is only around 50%, that means that IF you hit a set on a wet flop and that you have to raise to prevent a scarecard from killing your action, out of all of those hands he's going to have to fold at least 50%, then if you had the times that his decent made hands still won't be strong enough to go broke with you on the flop, you fall even lower than that. The only times you should setmine 100bb deep with medium/small pocket pairs in 3Bet pots are against nitty 3betters AND preferably if you're in position, the only other time that you should consider it is when you open EP/MP and get 3betted by someone that is going to have only premiums against you're tight opening range from those positions

interesting that you decide to check the flop against a fish, care to elaborate more about your thoughts process? Is it solely because we have 2nd pair or you're taking board texture into account?

good point James, i completely forgot about the fact that i had blockers for some reason to his most obvious/common bluff hands on the river :( I'll try to work on that and think about blockers even more now and not only when i'm trying to rep a bluff myself.

slowplaying monsters and 3betting the bottom polarized of our range against people that fold too often to 3bets is the right play, meaning you want to cold call with TT+/AK/AQ while 3betting Axs/Kxs and sometimes some suited gapers and suited connectors, knowing when to 3bet those hands will depend on positions and villain's raise 1st%. When he starts to tilt/adapt then you can start shift toward the higher part of your value polarized 3betting range while keeping a couple or few bluffs depending on how drastic he's trying to adapt.
with that said, if villain is really folding as high as 90% to 3bets, you can even 3bet hands like A8o, K9o because you'll just be printing money from him folding too often preflop. Just make sure you do it in the right positions and try to guess his range once he calls, if you flop a pair to know when to cbet or not.

about the flop play it's a clear call, raising here would be turning what's probably the best hand into a bluff.. which doesn't make any sense at all, i'd much rather raise a hand that has a backdoor flush, for example A2ss on say 2h 7s Td since our hand probably can't call another cbet on the turn but has disguised implied odds for when we hit an A or 2 on the turn, not forgetting that we can cbet turn when we pickup our flush draw. While 99 is a lot less vulnerably and you'll can sometimes call the turn. With that said, never forget to look up at villains stats before raising in a situation like i said and to know when to call a second barrel with the 99.

I would size turn bigger, with that sizing it seems like you're trying to bluff him.. since you don't seem to want to play for a big pot/stacks and/or you're scared of the turn.

Since you're deep with villain i would of raised flop to 10.00 - 11.00.
as played, cbet turn 18.00 - 19.50.. and check/call or check/fold river depending on his sizing, timing.
There's a few other stuff you could use to make your decision easier on the river too, WWSF%, aggression% river, notes on villain. You have a fairly big sample on villain, use it to your advantage :)

His hand on the river is polarized to either a flush, full house (although unlikely as i expect him to reraise the flop) or a busted draw if he bets, don't think he's ever going to try to thin value bet a Kx.

He doesn't have a very high cbet in single raised pots and he's cbetting against two people, i'd tend to give him a bit more credit here even tho that flop is a very easy cbet with nearly 100% of his range, he doesn't seem to be the kind of guy that attacks board textures. For those reasons and the fact we don't have a backdoor flush draw, don't think i'm ever raising this flop, i much prefer calling.

Once he checks on the turn i'm definitely stabbing since he check/fold at bit over 50% of the time and i'd expect him to keep value cbetting his hands if he has a flush or TP. Once he calls i would narrow down his range to bluffcatcher hands or the nuts.

I would just give up on that river, his raise first% from MP definitely shows that he could open JTs from that position, so he's never folding that. You also have no blockers to rep a strong hand, yes you have no showdown value but i don't think he's folding often enough to make our bluff on the river here EV+ in the long run.

with your huge cbet sizing on the turn, i don't think he's bluffing very often here.. also if he ever decides to try to bluff you off your hand, i think he's more likely to check/raise the flop. His sizing on the turn also shows that he's setting up for a river shove, when we add up all those factors i do think you're very likely to run into a set here.
Best/possible case scenario that you'd want is that he would have JJ but he's almost probably always 3betting that hand preflop with his stats, i'm not sure if he has many suited gapers in his cold calling range SB vs BTN, i guess that depends on how often you fold vs raises or how often you double barrel.

Think i'm just going to sigh and press the fold button here, i don't expect QQ to be good very often without a specific dynamic with villain, he seems to play pretty straight forward judging from his stats.

bump

anyone? :o
I don't want to spoil the turn result yet before knowing what you guys think about this. :/

what are UTG stats? readless i think i much prefer 3betting as a semi-bluff vs an UTG open w/ AQo when no one else called and even more when you say that SB is on the more aggro side, should expect him to squeeze you often.

As played, yes you should definitely bet the flop. You shouldn't expect that many folds but people play much more straight forward in multipots and i highly doubt that both of them are going to call you, there's also a bunch of cards that you can barrel on the turn then re-evaluate river.

Like i said in the flop decision, people play a lot more straight forward and face up in multiway pots, don't forget that his raise has to go through two people and not only you even tho that UTG seems like he completely gave up on the pot, for those reason i'm just folding.. he could have an overpair like 55-TT that doesn't want to see a river card OOP, he could also have a flushdraw but even then you don't have the pot odds to continue since there's reversed implied odds if you hit your A.

Once he bets the river it's a clear fold to me, i would of expect him to squeeze preflop with those stats his stronger Ax, and you hold the blocker to the nut flushdraw. If the board wasn't paired i could see myself calling some % of the time depending on my timing tells that i might have on him but there's just too many stuff that beats you on this board, your hand is essentially a bluff catcher and i highly doubt he's bluffing this specific river card once you called his raise on the turn. I wouldn't say your call on the river was pretty spew but ambitious.

can we really expect people to stack off AK/QQ 150bb deep without dynamics here?

the problem here is that your hand has showdown value, but not enough to valuebet a third street into two villains.. not even one, at least one of them looks fishy and judging from cards of the other, he's also a fish. Fishes never fold straights even if there's a flush on the board. You can expect at least one of the two to either have the straight or a flush once its that river card, and they're never value betting a Q themselves, so it's an easy check fold. Even against one villain i'm check folding here unless i have the specific read that he tends to fast play his draws, then i would call but only a bet on the smaller side.

flatting the squeeze pre is definitely fine with the implied odds since you're 200bb+ deep with one of them, that said i'm not sure if calling the flop is good here, we're OOP and we only have 3 outs to the nuts.. if its the 5 of diamond we'll want to raise but we could run into a flush so thats reverse implied odds, as played once he checks back the turn and we miss and our hand has no showdown value i'm definitely betting the river, but i would of probably sized it slightly bigger, something like 1.80-1.90

cbet more on the flop, you have the 2nd nut flush draw + gutshot, their calling range on that flop is static also meaning that no matter what size you bet, they'll call or fold. You want them to put money in with their weak spade draws, definitely cbet/folding turn if he raises big.. it could make him fold a few couple hands that he called the flop with, if he ever has 8x you're not drawing dead and you might win a big pot if you hit your J, plus you still have the flush draw.

check/fold river since it's three way and all the draws hit.. its probably the worst river card you could expect
i would of probably cbet 1.35 on the turn but its not a huge mistake