
ienjoyrawfish
0 points
He's only repping 6 combos, every draw missed, and you might have induced with your flop sizing.
Have to call.
Sept. 9, 2016 | 2:54 p.m.
We can't simply ignore the BTN for simplicity's sake though, his presence in the hand is extremely important. He's 3 bet our UTG open and then cbet a flop 3 way that smashes both ours and SB's cold calling range. I think it's fair to assume that his range here is very strong. And I'm not sure why you assume his sizing is indicative of weakness? This looks like fairly standard sizing for me in a 3 bet pot a little over 100BB deep effective. He can get the money in effectively over 3 streets and is probably sizing it this way with his entire range, no? If anything he should probably make it smaller to avoid an awkward SPR on the turn, or bigger to get the money in over two streets rather than three (arguably preferable given that he's going to have few bluffs here and lots of incentive to protect his equity on this texture),but I imagine a lot of regs, particularly at these limits, just auto 1/2 pot cbet in 3 bet pots, so I wouldn't read anything in to it.
Your pre -flop range for SB looks reasonable, but his continuing range vs. our c/r is obviously going to be extremely different. I would just make a decision based on population reads here. If you think the average 10NL reg is just going to look down at his hand and go "lol overpair, 3 bet pot, 100BB" and shrug his shoulders and stack off, then obviously raise. If, on the other hand, we think these villains are competent enough to realise that us c/r this board vs. 2 players in these positions is an extremely strong line and that AA should be a snap fold when we do so, then calling becomes better. My inkling is that the former is more likely to be true than the latter, so I think I would raise here and chalk it up to a cooler if I get stacked, but I haven't played 10NL online in a while so I could well be wrong.
Sept. 9, 2016 | 2:48 p.m.
OP states that he's trying to bluff villain off a split OTR.
I don't think it's a good play. There is very little chance that your average NL50 live donk is folding A high on this board once the flop and turn check through, especially if they're described as "spewy". On the other hand, there's a much better chance that they will take a stab with hands with no SDV if we check a third time. I think a reasonable line here is to check the river with the plan of c/c vs. BTN and most likely c/f vs. everyone else.
As played, obviously fold.
You see ridiculous hands far too often vs. a whale to consider folding here.
Sept. 9, 2016 | 3:12 p.m.