hyachu

Caution on using the 18% 3bet from BTN stat over 346 hands. That's 3 betting twice over 11 times when villain faced an open on BTN.

We need to practice more on counting outs. OTT we are drawing to clubs and T. Can't really see how the 8 gives us best hand against two villains, let alone other two pairs. So we have 4 clubs, board has 2. Jc is probably not good so we should not count it. So we are left with 6 good clubs and 3 T = 9 good outs. However, we could discount further the clubs because two people are happy on the flop. They likely have some clubs in their hands. So we probably needs to take another 2 to 4 clubs away. That leaves us 5 to 7 adjusted outs. The rest is a math problem whether we have enough equity to call on the turn. Very little stack left so implied odds on CO doesn't matter.

Turn lead consideration:
Good:
- Villain is still wide. (Any 4 + wide cbetting)
- We have 8, blocking current nut a little
- We have dd, blocking FD continuation range
- We have ok equity when called
Bad:
- We have reverse implied odds when called. hitting a flush could mean losing more
- We will have a hard time playing a lot of rivers when called. Only offsuit 9 makes nut
- Villain is a any 4 villain. Not easy to make him fold anything.

River consideration:
We are 120bb effective for this pot. On the river we still have a few options
- Small bet / fold means we are blocking to get value from worse two pair, and believe him when he raises.
- Small bet / call means we are betting to induce him to do something crazy, with the thinking that he wouldn't raise with sets or 54, and 98 would have raised us on the turn. concluding that the raise means his any 4 makes him too wide on the river, a desperate move trying to win the pot.
- Big bet / sigh-fold means we continue to rep 98, hoping he fold a set.
- check / call means we believe he comes to river with a lot of air and will bluff them
- check / fold means we believe he would have folded his air on the turn and therefore he has more made hands. and he is trying to get some value since we checked
- check / raise is similar to big bet, and we get real greedy, and with a soul read.

Since you describe villain is any 4 villain and would stab, I imagine he does not give up easily and would still be quite wide on the river. I probably would check / call and hope that he is either bluffing or value betting as wide as Aces up with like Adxd. If he bets half pot / full pot we need to be right 25%/33% of the time. Hope the Any 4 wide preflop range saves us.

My understand of RCE is that we should not looking at the stat alone. Anything over 1 is profitable call. That is, we put in 1 chip and getting more than 1 chip back.

Imagine a nit who only calls river with 2nd nut (with nutz he re-raises). His RCE is going to be way high. His fold to river bet is way high too, as he is folding 3rd nut down.

Imagine a maniac who would also calls only with 2nd nut, but with anything else (nutz and 3rd nut down to air) he re-raises. His RCE is the same as the nit, but his raise river bets is crazy high.

Of course nobody plays like these two profiles. It is for illustrating the RCE stat needs to be considered with other stats to be useful.

In game theory land (probably not our low-stake land), my guess is as long as we reach the MDR, RCE is higher than 1, and raise-river filter is a +, we reach a point where we defend opponent's river successfully. Next stop would be trying to get more hands to the river as we could be too nitty in previous streets.

"Finding the Edge in Stats" by Leszek Badurowicz talks more about using his favorite stat combinations to exploit villains.

ISO OOP:
From your description, we are going to be OOP multiway bloated pot on the flop most of the time. With that in mind, we will need strong nut potential. Imagine we have TP with Q high FD on the flop, how do we navigate through 3 other players from the SB? While maybe no one hand dominates us individually, someone might have a NFD and some other might have bottom two. So I imagine we would like the pot to be small to medium size at the end.

3bet ISO:
There is "3bet with visibility" by Nick Johnson. If the 3bet can isolate to HU postflop, I think it is pretty useful. If people just limp/call 3 bets and end up mostly multiway, I think we will end up the same scenario as the ISO OOP case. Only this time we are even closer to getting the stack in and no one is folding with anything semi reasonable.

Wanna give Odds Oracle / PokerJuice ranges a try? I think stealing with $FI50 is pretty wide. If you want to go further than that, it starts to look like any 4 with a remote possibility of making a hand.
(reference: https://pokerjuice.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/articles/201943998-Download-all-ranges)

Thanks for the video. I have a truly newbie PLO question. Playing in a loose environment (villain vpip 60+), what approach would you recommend with high overpairs (eg AAxx, maybe with a limited backdoor or a gutshot, ie not great, but not nothing) on boards that are not favorable? In the video, you recommend almost always 3betting AAxx to isolate. Say we successfully isolated the single raiser in SB vs BB, but the board comes rather unfavorable for bare AA. What would be our basic strategy for such situation against microstakes population?