hurla

Thanks !

Where is the 1st video in this series? I can't seem to find it.

And as for calling with small pocket pairs, I've heard a range of theories on it.

Let's say on average you're facing a raise and you call with your small pocket pairs in the SB or BB. On average you're putting around 2.25x into the pot. And let's say you fold whenever you don't hit a set. You're losing 2.25 x 88 times = 198 bb. In order to break even when you hit your set 12% of the time, you need to win an average of around 16bb each time. And bearing in mind you'll sometimes win a whole stack versus overpairs or 2pair hands, I think it's profitable. I filtered my database for all situations where I called with 22-88 in SB or BB and then flopped a set. The sample size was small but its very +EV all the same. I suspect most players would be +EV calling with PP in the blinds, assuming you don't go crazy postflop.

Don't just filter for 84s. Filter for all those other similar marginal hands. If you're calling 84s, I'm guessing you're calling a wide range of suited cards. Filter for them all. I recommend playing through a selection of them with Villain's cards hidden. Play through the hands and see the kind of spots you're ending up on. If you seem to be handling it well, great. But I suspect you'll find a lot of gross spots where you're just guessing with your weak range. Let us know.

For example, let's generate 10 random flops (using Flopzilla):
Ah Tc 2s
9c 6d 5c
Kh 9c 8d
9s 6d 3d
Ah Qs 8d
Ad As 9h
Ah 5c 2d
Kc 7c 7d
Ad Ks 8h
Kc Jd 5s

We can probably continue on 40% of those flops, if we include all pairs and all draws. But how often can our weak pairs withstand a turn barrel? Or face another bet on the river? How should we play our draws?
It's guesswork. The danger is that we end up passively check calling a super weak range hoping to get to showdown and win at least 22% of the time. I don't have Cardrunners but if someone else is willing to run numbers, it would be interesting.

Our equity with ATC is theoretical. The reality is that when we call with 8 high in the BB, on 88% of flops there will be at least one overcard. What's the plan? Hope we hit an 8 or a 4? Check call any pair versus multiple barrels? Check raise all draws? We're putting ourselves in tough spots so often. I know 22% doesn't sound like much to defend, but I think it would be harder to realize that equity than you're saying. IMO.

I think this is player dependent. There's more than one kind of "fish". There are plenty of these "fish" who play really loose aggressive and shove draws all the time. There's another type who passively call with their entire range. So I personally don't think it makes sense to just say "against a fish I fold/call". For the aggressive player, draws are in his turn range. For the passive player, draws aren't in his turn range.We need to base our action on reads based on his stats and play. Without any such information, I would personally default to folding. But if he has shown himself to be aggressive in raising pots postflop, then we can reasonably add draws to his range and make the call.

My question is about putting the ideas in this video into practice.

The ideas and thought process in the video are really useful and impressive. But how do you apply this to a random flop in the heat of battle with the clock ticking? There's only so deep you can go in 30 seconds (while playing 3 or 4 tables). My problem has always been making the right choice in the moment. I'd love to hear your thoughts on what the 'simplified' version of your thought process might be in the midst of a poker hand under time pressure.

Great video btw!

GInTheorem, perhaps you could give us more details on how 84s is played postflop? Saying we need to be "remotely competent" is basically the same as saying "call w 84s and play it well postflop". You really haven't given any explanation. I'm interested in blinds vs steal dynamic and I'd like to hear more about why you are so convinced that calling is better than folding.

I don't know Villain's stats, but if AK/AQ/Ax and pocket pairs make up a large part of his (possibly wide) 4bet range, aren't we giving him a free chance to improve when we check back the flop? Wouldn't he call a bet with AK and AQ here?

84s is only a mandatory defend if you have a good strategy in place for post flop. You should have an idea of what board textures you will continue. It also depends on how aggressive your opponent is.
Perhaps the OP would like to hear more detailed strategies on postflop plans following a defend with 84s? I think we can analyze some situations because it's an interesting dynamic. How often can we call 84s in BB vs BTN minraise and claim to be doing well? How often are we XF flop?

My point is that it doesn't just come down to pot odds here. You might be getting 3-1 on a call. And 84s has more than 25% equity against a 50% steal range. But playing it OOP could lead to further losses. 72o has 30% equity against a 50% steal range. Going by pot odds alone, you are getting the right price to call in the BB. Would you call with 72o?

I guess it comes down to playing styles too. What's your general strategy postflop when defending these kind of hands?

Personally I think you should fold hands like 84s in the BB. Even if the BTN is opening wide, you're putting yourself in tough spots over and over by calling so wide. Tighten up your range in the BB until you feel more confident playing those kind of spots OOP.

In the hand, the XR bluff doesn't really make much sense on such a dry board. You're basically saying that you either have a draw, air or a set. And would you really XR a set on that board? It looks like a random bluff and the BTN realized it. He could have 72o here and still win because your line is too transparent

If your plan is to defend the BB wide versus the BTN, you need a well defined strategy. Construct a defend range with hands like pairs, broadway and SCs. Then think about what kind of flops you can continue. Maybe start by check raising strong draws like NFD or OESD. See how that goes. Of course, XR your value hands like sets and two pairs too. This will make your XR range harder to read. If you feel more confident you can XR a bit wider with gutshots on the correct board textures.

Even when you're tired and yawning, the depth of what you see is impressive. Great insights !

Just wondering about calling wide in the BB vs min raises from the BTN. I know the odds are good for a call, but since the button's range is so wide and we're missing most flops and end up check folding a lot of flops, is it a justifiable play? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts on why you think it's +EV to call wide in those spots. In particular, how do you assess your equity vs such a wide button range on a variety of flops? I tend to avoid calling wide because I find it hard to estimate my equity oop vs a wide range. But I wonder if I can open up my calling range more.

Great video, I found it very interesting listening to your thought process during the hands.