howboutibex

I have a few questions about calculating a 3-bet shove EV.

How do you estimate the frequency in which your opponent will fold? Is there a particular stat you go by?

For example, I was recently in a standard situation where, 3-handed (2 places pay), the button raised 3x out of his 30BB stack. The SB (17 BBs) folded and I picked up QJo with 10BBs in the BB. I shoved and lost to A8. Was this a good shove? The button is VP41/PR22 with a 40 RFI from the button stat over just 80 hands. He's opening wide from the button (maybe, the sample size is small), but how do I estimate how often he will fold to my 3-bet?

For my calculation, I assumed he'd fold 50% of hands and that when he calls with the top 50%, I'd have 38% equity, which makes this a +2BB EV shove. Are my calculations in the ballpark?

I know this is a really specific example but I want to learn how to do these calculations correctly so I don't get stuck making -EV moves all the time.

Thank you guys!

I've had PokerTracker 4 for the last year and a half and have mostly used it mainly to track my sessions. I'm profitable in both MTTs (300 tournaments, 48% ROI) and 6-max SNGs (3000 tournaments, 5% ROI). I've recently been trying to use PT to analyze my play. While doing some research on 2+2, I discovered that a good target WTSD% would be in the 20-30% range. Mine is ~50% in both MTTs and SNGs. Obviously, I'm a calling station.

This seems like an enormous leak that I would really like to fix. Aside from the obvious, does anyone have any specific tips for lowing this number? What other stats might help me in plugging this leak? For what its worth, my WSD is 51 for both MTTs and SNGs.

Any help would be great.

Thanks!