heytheremate

BTN jam would probably be QQ+, AK. We should never call with JJ. But I think 4bet/fold is better in this spot than calling and having a hard postflop play.

Run it once does have good hand reviews. Upswing also has good articles, but most things these days are based on how a solver sees the situation.

I do recommend you to try and use a solver - not GTO, since 25NL players don't play it.

But by node locking, applying pool tendencies, and analiysing the results, ou will have a much greater understanding of how spots are played than simoly watching videos.

It takes some work tho

I don't mind the flat, since JJ are still a pretty good hand to play postflop and we wouldn't only be set minding on this situation.

However, I'd probably only do it 25% of the time or less. BB's range is very weak with all those hands you said- especially running 40%. Given that and the fact that we're OOP vs maybe a reg, we should try to 4bet more often than flat. Having a capped range OOP MW isn't a pleasant situation.

Bottom line: by simply flatting, unless flops are all lower than a J, we'll have a hard time realising our equity when we could have just taken down pre. Any broadway, especially K and A gives the BTN (the uncapped range) an excuse to profitably bet vs us.

In case we did 4bet, I'd even maybe call a BB shove - not BTN. In my experience, whenever a fish CC's/shoves, it is a hand where they dont want to fold or call, so they decide to just jam (a lot of Axs, pairs, two broadways). Obviously they will be nutted some of the time.

The way it was played, I'd probably fold JJ here. Villain has too many value combos that call our 3bet when IP (Axs, pocket pairs, other suited broadways, A), and since this is pretty much the bottom of our range by the river when we double barrel, I'd say it is an ok fold - especially when he shoves 2.5x pot, we don't need to defend very often given MDF. We also don't have any card that blocks his value range.

I do think that if the bet was smaller, we could make a call here, given that Villain might be aware that this isn't a good board for a 3bet pot and OOP player? He might know we have very few hands that really hit this board, so if he has any blockers, a river shove IP would make sense (holdings hands like the As or Ks, which there might not be many unsuited).

I'd also probably have a bigger bet size OTT, (around $18) given that Villain might float flop IP to try and win OTT on this board, but once he sees the small bet, he thinks he gets a good price for a call.

What are your thoughts?

hey dude, very tough spot really. Guess we have to consider our opponent a lot in this situation, we have to consider if our opponent is good enough to recognize that we could be 3 betting very light just because of ICM pressure. If we consider him good enough, we could shove. Guess i would shove.