greedisgood

I don't mind you disagree, and I would love to hear your opinion. But saying "KQo is a good 4betbluff hand" is worthless. Yes it's good because it has blockers but this implies you flat ATs-AKs, Axo-Axo or you also cold 4bet those? Why do we need so much cold 4betbluff combinations in your opinion on a 10NL pool vs unkown players?

So please read the entire situation with active players and positions and add the assumptions you make for unknown players on 10NL to give your comment some value. Maybe we then can learn something from you.

I don't like the bluff 4bet as you say you only have a small sample = no sample. If you are really confident in his statistics/notes/history I like it, but for cold 4betting KQo I need to have more certainty like a note on a hand he showed up with something like JTs, ATs or preferably 78s in a 3bet sbvbut.

I would prefer a hand like AJs over KQo to cold 4Bet as a bluff vs practically unknowns. Maybe a suited non broadway A is even better then KQo because of the card removal effect and the tendency of our villains to just call here OOP instead of 5betjam, KQo will play really poor as you'll have to play it so passive. with some draw+hopefully live card A we can put a lot more pressure and never be drawing dead when getting it in postflop

As played post flop I like it

I think the small sizing on this board is a mistake, we've got Ah which removes a ton of his FD combos and the Jh OTF removes some more. 7h removes his 78s & 76s so he's only left with KQhh, KThh, QThh and 89hh and maybe K9hh Q9hh(but unlikely) as his CC is pretty high, will depend on how many % he 3bets.

So basically no FDs that are going to raise you OTF so I'm fan of a larger sizing, I think WM2K covered it all :)

I'm a bit skeptic so may I ask where u got it from?

Also, my PT4 makes the month 01 instead of just 1

on 5NL I doubt people bluff, they do make weird plays and you only need 25%. your blocking AQ and AK so he's basically saying he hit a set or 2pair and played it slow. My Advice is you should look at how the population plays, as it's pretty hard for people who don't play the same stake to give you advice about unknown opponents.. it's just really player and population dependent, especially on the micros where nobody has an idea about strategy & just does how they feel like at that time. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bad call on 5NL, but it could be +EV vs some opponents too. Really no idea how they play.

Personally I'm calling because the guy hasn't bet turn when he has a hand that beats me(set,2pair, straight) and now he's betting river on an offsuit 3. He still has FD's and might turn a hand like QJ into a bluff. Maybe he floated the flop with total garbage like Q9, J9, .. that's why you need population reads:)

I normally do this work off-table with flopzilla, but what I meant is this:

if he has 64 valuebluffcombos we lose to, and 25%potodds I want to know how many bluffcombos I need to beat in order to call.

you can do it in multiple ways, my example would be 5% off as 64valuecombos+16bluffcombos= 16/80=20% and we needed 25%.

Personally I would just use more easy numbers at the tables, like 60 instead of 64, then you know that 20/80=25% so you'll need 20combos to make the call, again, the numbers aren't exactly correct so you'll be making a mistake if you can only come up with exactly 20combos. But that's why it's a guessing game right :) More importantly you want to do off-table work with flopzilla or equilab to get better and faster at this, as you'll be more correct in your assumptions and calculations

+1 to ismaithliom, I only would like to add you might want to exploit villains tendency to overfold vs steals on the BB by stealing much wider. Limping will give him equity realisation he would otherwise pass on, it's hard to balance and there's the rake:)

I'd prefer x/r OTF over x/r OTT as people are stationary and when doing this OTT you give him the opportunity to make mistakes by betting low PP he shouldn't bet for a big sizing and then having to call because he only has 2$ behind.

In this hand, his sizing was ok OTT but I still doubt you'll get many folds on 5NL, but I can be wrong! I just don't think people fold a PP there

personally I like to just bet big OTF then jam OTT for max fold equity and not letting him spazz out. Or x/r OTF and if he doesn't bet just bluff good cards OTT for a large sizing. depends on his statistics but you'll need way more (500ish) to change your play vs a particular opponent, so I would put the populations range into flopzilla and look how he does on this board and how much folds we can generate vs their range by betting twice versus x/r gii

you're risking too much to call this imo.. If he 2xpots it you might give it a call but in general I don't think people overbluff enough as a bluff nearly enough to call it (personal thoughts).

I agree with isoing>limping behind, but as played I think you definitely have to bet flop. It's mw so you should play more straight forward and defend your equity and this one is a clear Vbet. Your hand is very underrepped as well and CO probably only bets when ahead of your TP and x back when he's not. (maybe some thin vbets with TT+ but that's 3hands, 1 we block)

OTT vs his small sizing I was thinking to raise at first but vs an agressive player you might earn some big bets from him OTR so call might be fine. He might disguise his JT with this small sizing but I'd think usually he doesn't with 2people behind on this board.

that's too bad.. but you really shouldn't mind paying off people 2 streets half pot with a PP vs TP when he had initiative all the way. Say he does this with all his strong 1pair hands (=AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QT, Q9s) that's 64combos. He bets half pot meaning you need 25% equity to call. you need to beat +-16combos in his range in order to be profitable so it's easy to call imo.

About my A guess: I expected him to have some Ax type of hand that he just bets twice small because "it's probably the best hand" or he heard someone say "it's hard to make a pair" and does this as a blocker bet with his PP.

if he uses this sizing with his nutted hands, his range gets a little wider but I wouldn't bet on it that the population does this so I wouldn't put him on AA/KK/AQ/KQ/sets

I would opt for a x/c as well instead of leading with a small sizing. His line makes no sense for a valuehand as what did he hit, FH on the 8 turn? scared of a better T or just a T with his AA/KK?

which hands are you trying to get value from OTR with the small sizing?

as you raised UTG & he's in CO, I don't think he's 3betting you light so I go with what's mentioned above x/c and as played bet/fold as he's just not bluffing

he probably just calls with KJ tough so I'm still folding in this hand as his bluffs would make no sense and we have no blockers to his valuerange. I also agree he shouldn't check his valuehands again OTR to x/r but this usually leads to outleveling yourself and giving your opponent too much credit.

we're blocking a lot of his Tx hands that defend vs3bet, he will have a lot of PP that call 1 street (given that he doesn't like folding pre, I assume he will continue on this board a lot).

On this turn card I don't like a bet vs this opponent, we should bet broadways as they're scarecards to his PP heavy range or spades for the increased equity we get. If he floated us with AQ/AJ that's too bad but we still got 10outs to improve on. If he folds a lot vs (delayed) double barrels go ahead, but some people don't like folding and just call again with AQ and 88 type of hands. (turn and river)

bet turn, he will let you know when beat. We're blocking some of his outs if he has a set, but if we can only get 1 street of value anyway why wouldn't we bet turn? we're saving ourselves from some suckouts, and I doubt villain will x/r bluff us here OTT. Which hands could he use for it anyway? as played it's an very ugly spot OTR and I think we could exploitive fold because his range is so weighted towards sets,boats or split pot, I don't think he turns JTs/AJs into a bluff so I fold. Your blocking 89 tough but I don't think it's reason enough to make the call for this sizing

If villain floats flop wide(doesn't fold much vs c-bets) I would cbet turn, otherwise check behind is ok I think.. Or use a large sizing to make him fold better FDs. going for half pot-3/4pot wont get the job done I think..

OTR:easy call I think he can be valuebetting 9x, TT,(JJ), or his bluffs that aren't A high(67,JTo,diamonds)

I think you can't have an exclusive strategy for this hand, when someone donks 2/3, donk small/call raise then leads 1/2pot again OTR when both FD and SD come in, I would be clueless. It's so rare to see the lines he took in this hand, and it's clearly fishy but way different then the average fish.

If he has boats in his range, it's an easy call. But what if he would x/r a hand like 99, 44 or 89 OTT instead of donk/calling? or x/calling & then spazzing out OTR with an overbet, big bet or idk what because he doesn't want you to just check behind.

So, I personally would weigh him more towards no-boats by the way he played his hand and except to see the occasional rape of 44, 89 etc, but my main question to jam or not would be do I think he calls me with 9x,TT,56??, does he have JT, ... I expect to get called by all his 8x

Pretty sure villian flopped the joint and slowplayed you, nothing you can do. Highly doubtfull people ever bluff here, and you're blocking his bluffing outs. Would also make more sense for him to 3bet turn as a bluff then OTR.

vs this sizing it's a fine call, vs a bigger sizing when he's repping TP+/SD you're blocking his drawhands so I might fold. But he's repping nothing, and he probably hit his A OTR else you wouldn't ask :D but he's valuebet himself for 2 streets and you didn't pay him off when he was ahead so gj

you got an SPR of close to one, so money has to go in on the flop. Betting or checking is heavily dependent on your opponent. as I would assume most people are passive, I would bet without further reads.

Nice line, I think you played it perfect. personally I would c-bet flop with most of my AK, but with the As in our hand I don't mind the check. Turn I would be going little bigger so we don't have a big sizing OTR left, now that the flush comes through villain might fold or not, but I think on 10NL people aren't capped at AK/QQ+ because their 3bet range will be more garbage then nuts if they just call a 4bet and play it this passive. wouldn't be surprised to see him 3bet/call 4bet with AJs+/KJs+/JTs+/+mix of PP/SC

Agree with above, if you have 1.6K hands and no history/dynamics it's a fold to me

I wouldn't rely on your hud on a 100 hands sample but if you've seen him 3barrel his whole range it's ok, he could have a lot of SDs too. But he's UTG, he has a strong range based on his VPIP/PFR(he isn't ultra loose, on those 2 you can rely on a little on 100hands) so I think I'm still folding..

bet turn and fold river would be better I think, he shouldn't have too many Kx and he still has a lot of weaker hands you can get value from. And I don't think he will bluff on an 8 with his missed FDs

you are IP second to act, giving everyone behind you a reason to come along as well as not IP 100% of the time, or go for the squeeze, either way you lose equity realisation + you'll have to fold 66% of the time vs UTG's c-bet because you got nothing and I wouldn't like floating a nit with K high.. my 2 cents and there's 10% rake for seeing a flop.

it's 5NL vs an unknown, we do have position and he basically used a 4bet sizing... I think I'm calling but I hate seeing 2 people overcall this betsize because they count in euros and not in BB. I don't know how much this situation arises, but I might prefer just shipping it I mean our SPR would be 2 OTF, sure we're face up but it's 5NL they're usually just looking at their own 2cards.

The only right answer you'll find in your database, filter for squeeze preflop and look at the range of hands people are using from the blinds. Don't forget the times you can pick up the pot preflop, rakeless and denying villains equity in the pot

I don't understand why you flat KQs vs a 14 PFR after 1.2K hands guy.. He has like all broadways and 88+ so you're a major underdog vs his range and you can barely suck out on him as all the flushes in his range beat you so you're looking for T2P or nutstraight to get it in good vs him. When he gets tricky and shows agression I would just fold, he can have 5flush outs , 1x top set and 6x AA(I used an 8% RFI UTG as a hypothetical RFI) + the weird played AKs.

And also, when we see a guy who's such a nit, does he even have bluffs?

my guess is he's adding RB, I don't know what status OP is but my guess is gold star and that's a lot less RB

I agree with ismaithliom, what is the x/r% on the river for the population of 25NL ? It's just never a bluff, and as people don't thin valuebet enough neither I think you made a good fold.

OTT, I don't think you need to use this sizing as villains have a range that crush this board. you want to make a J fold, but will he even fold it? I don't think you should double barrel on the river.. I can count 61broadway combinations he won't fold vs a bet and got you crushed

I personally think turn could be fine as a check or a small bet to make him fold his Ax that beat you and 65s, .. type of hands. But none of these hands have much equity vs us and we need to get it through 2 people so I don't think we obtain enough FE and we don't have any good draws.. I think a hand like KQ would be better as we block KJ KT etc + have 2overs+a SD