gael67

At the table you have to decide quickly. So, let’s make it simple with rounded figures.
No specific read on CO. I will put him 50% on 99 and 50% on some draw. BB is obviously on a draw. He will not fold. To call I must put an additional 2000 to win 7500 (main and side)
Against 99 my EV is almost zero. Against draws I have around 50% to take the entire pot.
So, my EV is 50%x50%x7500=1900. I fold and reduce the variance. It can't be a big mistake

I play regularly 8 handed PLO5. Over the years, for my own use, I have made a lot of calculations and written around 50 articles regarding this game.
Unfortunately, they are not in English. Maybe I will release them some time in the future. Here is a small sample:
You will have a pair of aces one in twenty hands.
If you have no ace in your hand, there is (1/3) chance that one of the remaining 7 players has a pair of Aces. It means that you have to be careful prf when raising, or three or 4 betting without an ace, because often you might find yourself all in against Aces and this is never a good situation even in PLO5.
Don’t be in love with a king suited. there is (1/2) chance that one of the remaining 7 players is dominating you with the Ace suited. Beware of reverse implied odds.
When there is a pair on the flop (XXY) and you don’t have X, there is 1/5 chance for each opponent to have X and 3% to have YY. So don’t try to steal as much as in PLO4.
Finally, Backdoors are common, the variance is huge but the fun also.

On the turn a set has 10 outs to beat a straight. There is 42 unknown cards (since we see 8 cards and we know that the straight hand has a minimum of 2 cards which are not blockers to the outs improving the set). So the set has 10/42 = 23% chance to improve. Certainly not 36%. In this situation and in absence of implied odds, it the right play to fold the set hand.
By the way the 36% are the chances for a set to beat a straight when you are all in on the flop.

Thank you guys, it seems that I misplayed the hand;
Now, I don't know how to assign a specific range in PPT, can anyone help pls?
In the hand above on the turn, I put villain on the following hands with or without FD:
AKQx, KQJT, KQJJ, KQTT, KQ88, AKJJ, AKTT, AK88, AQJJ, AQTT, AQ88. How do I calculate my equity? Do I have to assign a % on each hand?
Thanks

Thank you for your comments and sorry for my appoximate english.
We were 8 players; villain is not especially skilled and is very aggressive (raising almost 100% preflop and CB whenever he connects with the flop).
When he didn’t reraise me on the flop I put him on a set (supported by KQ, AK, AQ) or AKQ.
When the Qd appears on the turn and he bets it took me 3 minutes to decide to call or fold. With my FD, and knowing that he is capable to bluff me out betting the turn whenever the nut changes, I decided to call.
The outcome is irrelevant but Villain showed AdQJJd.
Two very good players criticized my call on the turn. I still don’t know if I was right.
My question is: on the turn, with a range as above do I have a positive EV or not?

21% if you don't have a flush card and 17% if you have one.
To calculate this sort of % you need to use a formula giving the number of combination of x elements within y elements (exemple how many group of 4 cards within a deck of 52 cards). You can use the formula in Excel "=combin(52:4)" which gives you 270725. This is the number of hands you receive in PLO. (Note that a hand like 8765 rainbow is counted 24 time because the formula considers 8s7h6d5c is different from 8h7s6d5c). Now answering your question: once you see the flop there will be 45 unknown cards in the deck. 10 flush cards) and 35 non flush. In heads up an opponent will have combin(45;4) possible hands which is 148995 different hands. The number of hands with exactly 2 flush cards is combin(10;2) x combin(35;2) which is 26775 hands and the number of hands with 3 flush cards is combin(10;3)x35 which is 4200 and with 4 flush cards combin(10;4) which is 210 hands. The total is 31185 being 20.9%
Sorry for the complicated math. It is the only way if you want to do it yourself.

Imo the fact that we did not 3 bet pre OOP with these deep satcks does not mean our hand is capped. We could have aces.

What is our plan when we call the last raise on the flop? how would we play the turn idfthe board pairs or if it is a club, or if it is a brick? Not easy. 

My choice is either fold or jam on the flop.

Hello all,

I just joined
this forum and this is my first post; pls note English is not my mother language.

Obviously RIT
does not change the EV  but diminishes the
variance and therefore the bankroll needed which IMHO is one of the main concerns
of every pro.   

I am
surprised no one mentioned one important factor. Here it is:

Some players (including me)  are known to
propose RIT systematically. Even if RIT does not affect the EV  I noticed that many players, bad and good ones
alike, include the factor RIT in their reasoning process, so they often make
the wrong move due to this inclusion. All things being equal, they tend to pay
my flop or turn all in bet (or raise it all in if it is close) just because
they know it is “less risky” since we will RIT.

This is
great for me but I have to adjust my play against these players in the way of being
more cautious in bluffing them on the flop or the turn when we could be almost
all in.

In
contrast, some pro I respect are known to never RIT because they don’t want to encourage
some players to pay them all in before the river card.

IMHO one can
take advantage of either strategy (never or always RIT) as far as he makes it known
at the table.

To
illustrate this suppose a player having 10 outs faces a pot size all in bet on
the turn; obviously he should not call. Oddly some will call me because I always
RIT, while they will fold against the “Never RIT man”. Occasionally when I am
sure that they have not the proper odds I might even lure them into calling by letting
them know that I always RIT.