Rhys (floppinhel)
8 points
Super interesting hand. I 100% think he's going to be cbetting all of his Jx preflop bluffs here with generally the intention of betting multiple streets as a bluff - just as a standard. Briefly ignoring the mathematical unlikelihood of him having quads I would be way more concerned about us losing to JJ then any other Jx hand - I feel he's going to check back the vast majority of his pairs on 776r (especially nutted pairs AA KK QQ and maybe JJ), as this deep two streets of value seems most likely from your 2 pair hands and offers you the chance to improve to a still worse hand and may induce 2 streets of bluffs - obviously this suggests some pretty brutal lack of balance in his spot but i don't even think its close to being bad being unbalanced in such a rare spot deep in a major.
I also think he will check back AK and maybe AQ a reasonable amount of the time (sure this means AJ pops in every now n then too but negligible to AK/AQ regarding how often he will 3b AJ as standard and further not cbet flop. It's super tempting for him to call call with these a high hands on this board but with river stacks as they are and with how strong jamming looks and how tight it should supposedly make your bet calling range he is getting a joke sick price on bluffing you off your weaker value hands (AA KK QQ TT 99 88, 7x???? lol). IF he thinks A high is close on river and is leaning towards calling i think jamming is significantly better for this spot it puts you in even with a hand as strong as yours. (Havent got a lot of history with him to know how capable he is of something like this)
I would still 100% value bet and use your sizing but the main reason is to get max value from AA KK QQ TT rather than necessarily Ax - unless he's going to bet call river with these hands we get way more from our own sizing and its not even unreasonable to see him hero check back some of that range.
I think we get shown JJ a greater amount that we want to but yeah I would 100% be calling river and I doubt I fold any hand that i had bet for value on the river (although i guess not now against anyone reading this thread)
fwiw id lean towards folding preflop 35bbs deep here, but am in no way completely against calling as its cool to have a non nutted/broadway flatting range here. (i realise this isnt river thoughts)
I also think he will check back AK and maybe AQ a reasonable amount of the time (sure this means AJ pops in every now n then too but negligible to AK/AQ regarding how often he will 3b AJ as standard and further not cbet flop. It's super tempting for him to call call with these a high hands on this board but with river stacks as they are and with how strong jamming looks and how tight it should supposedly make your bet calling range he is getting a joke sick price on bluffing you off your weaker value hands (AA KK QQ TT 99 88, 7x???? lol). IF he thinks A high is close on river and is leaning towards calling i think jamming is significantly better for this spot it puts you in even with a hand as strong as yours. (Havent got a lot of history with him to know how capable he is of something like this)
I would still 100% value bet and use your sizing but the main reason is to get max value from AA KK QQ TT rather than necessarily Ax - unless he's going to bet call river with these hands we get way more from our own sizing and its not even unreasonable to see him hero check back some of that range.
I think we get shown JJ a greater amount that we want to but yeah I would 100% be calling river and I doubt I fold any hand that i had bet for value on the river (although i guess not now against anyone reading this thread)
fwiw id lean towards folding preflop 35bbs deep here, but am in no way completely against calling as its cool to have a non nutted/broadway flatting range here. (i realise this isnt river thoughts)
Dec. 12, 2012 | 12:47 p.m.
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Regarding the general play in this video I think I agree with taking almost all the 3b spots that you didnt but discussed afterwards such as the k6o vs the tank open and the a3o sb v button. As you said the bb defending part of your game has changed significantly, pretty sure only the 97o was worthy of it though.
Not sure if these hands are in the correct order or not:
The ATo I would get in as the bottom of my Ax range - three factors:
-The button steal is absurdly wide, such that:
-Whilst he has 24bbs I think hes most likely to 3b induce with AK probably AQ and TT/JJ+ whilst putting in a plenty wide enough range of hands that we dominate a decent amount of. It sucks if we get shown AJ but i think the range is wide enough that we're pretty unlucky to be shown even undominated suited broadway hands or pairs we're flipping vs (the button steal range isnt even tight enough to really consider him folding our outs)
-The overlay we're getting in this pot with the bb invested, the very likely folded button open and the antes etc.
The A6cc I think is too good to 3b fold as hes too likely to take this 4b jam spot with too much of his range, flatting seems pretty bad so I'd be interested as to what you thing about ripping (cant remember exact stacks but feel like it was less than 29/30bb? I guess if we're doing this 4 handed there'd be some merit 2 3b calling to try to keep in his worse ax hands and anything else we can get him to jam but a6 doesnt do that great against them so i figure getting him 2 fold broadway stuff, 22-55 and a7/a8o maybe priority. I cant see it making us too exploitable, if at all, to add a4s-a6s into our 3b jamming range along with our own small pairs 22-55 as icm considerations prevent him from just taking his equity with even KQ etc. Maybe this is too many chips to shove and there is a better option, but cant see 3b folding being it, unless u want to 3b super small (85-90k) to induce flats that we can barrel off applying pressure in that way whilst giving a worse price to his jam and to our call when jammed on.
As for the QQ hand i really wish we'd been a bit more 3b happy in the fore-mentioned spots so this would get a lot less credit. As it stands I think if either or both stacks in the blinds were 4bb less I would see a lot more merit to flatting, however:
-Building a pot with this ridiculously good hand is key
-Whitesense especially seems to have played well and aggressively and the sb has become significantly more aggressive since we became 4 handed such that I think both wouldnt be able to resist a cold 4 all in spot with anything they'd put in over a button flat (all pairs, suited ax, strong hands) + maybe even a wider range than that with the extra possibly perceived "dead money" out there. Toobig4teens would probably see T9s or 98s as too big a jam v a flat but well more worthwhile to cold 4 all in with?
-My 3b size would be small for what its worth, barely more than 105k, we havent 3b this guy this deep yet and a small 3b strategy v him with these stacks could be sufficient pressure and really coffin him whilst putting in as few chips as possible when we have weaker hands, if its ineffective then we can change sizing to bigger or become more call heavy, the dynamics of the stacks behind would continue to affect my decisions there though. Balance isnt important here, you arent playing with people you play with
everyday so worrying about being totally air heavy when 3betting isnt necessary but I would 3b here simply because i think its a better spot to.
Flatting clearly has some merit to it though too.
Look forward to public apology regarding the Q6s fold utg 4 handed, almost made me reach for the comfort food.
Good job again :)
April 16, 2013 | 10:21 a.m.