firefly2193

Yes agreed, I personally wouldn't be 3betting as wide here hence my thought process. I still think a call is required here, c-betting flop and then checking turn and folding river seems too weak.

I would call the river, villain definitely could have some Axcc combos to bluff. To me this looks near top of our range other than 8x (and TT) by the river. I assume we'd keep betting sets on the turn, so by folding this hand could we be exploited? Or is there enough 8x combos in our range? 

I'd fold.

11% looks like 77+, ATo+, A9s+, QTs+, KQo

If he cbets 84% he's likely taking out KQo (maybe ATo) and some of QTs-KQs with no BDFD.
That leaves: 77+, A9s+, AJo+, QTs+

Betting only 42%, assuming he chucks all the non-pair hands first:
77+.

You're crushed at this point since there are no draws in his preflop range for him to continue with. Maybe he checks 77 and bluffs with some AK but you're still crushed.

Probably only continue with JJ+ and 88?

Yeah, on retrospect I would imagine 66 and TT. I must be giving too tight a range preflop - I was discounting hands like Axs and 65s.

If players are flatting utg AND then flatting a 3bet with hands like A5s, A6s, 65s then I could definitely see this being a fold. I couldn't imagine non-fish players taking that line with hands like that (66 and ATs maybe) but I could be wrong.

It depends on how he plays post-flop. If you can steal a lot post-flop - I'd be playing way higher than 50+% of hands. You're going to have position and initiative and can steal a lot of flops/turns when they tell you they have nothing, and you can put a lot of hands in your value range too. I'd likely be playing 80-90% of hands here, only ditching the unconnected, low unsuited hands. If he's a calling station post-flop, I'd tighten up a bit but not too much, maybe play 60-70% of hands and just be prepared to put A LOT of hands in your value range. 

I don't see many hands on this board he's gonna have in his range to bluff with, unless you think he's a strong enough player to turn JJ-QQ into a bluff. If you think you can get value from AQ, I would shove the river. 

I think the playerpool at 25NL are going to be extremely bluff heavy on this turn - the only value hand they can (really) have is TT, most players won't understand balance well enough so when they jam the turn are going to have so many more draws and combo draws making it an easy call with a hand like yours.

How calley (pre) is the villain? How many JTs/9Ts does he have? Villain has all the sets, though QQ he presumably 4bets pre some % of the time. He also has hands like AQhh, maybe AJs. I think you're ahead quite a lot here, and when you are the villain has relatively little equity. However if you check, you are probably forced to call a bet and the river will be tough. I think we should bet/fold, getting value from lower sets and some pair+draws and then evaluate on the river.