finsfan7

Disappointed that betudontbet didn't guess the suits in the AT v AA hand

While this board is a pretty good one for a top 10% range to cont bet, it's true that it won't be at a 100% rate. No idea how WRUUM plays so it's very dependent on reads, and Phil has a far far better read than all of us so he probably made the right call to err on the conservative side and fold.

Phil, running a simple equity simulation on the first hand of the video, QQ76, shows that you're getting the right price to peel a card on the flop and reevaluate on the turn. I feel like having the gutter and backdoor clubs makes this call a bit easier, and having a diamond blocker helps as well.

As for the turn decision, obviously any non diamond 5 or club or Q should be an easy get it in situation. Any AK or diamond is probably a fold depending on how opponent reacts, and if the board pairs that's a tricky spot, and is read/game flow dependent. If you feel opponent continues to fire his nut flush draw + gutter type calls, then I feel like you should get it in.

Just curious about the last hand vs. lefort, what is your rationale behind betting there? I feel like his tight range from the SB smashes a KJ6 rainbow flop, so why bet your bottom pair with minimal backdoor possibilities?