dumdidum

Many thanks for this excellent vid! You're very clear in laying out your thought process. Not all other coaches have that talent. (And I writing this as somebody who teaches at university, so I think of myself having at least a bit of pedagogical expertise haha.)

I do think many tight reg UTGs will cbet most or all of their range on this board. But I see your point.

So what's your plan for the turn when you call the flop?

IMO, KTs is just a poor hand to play OOP if we take such a weak line. If we don't play some of our draws aggressively, it's just gonna happen too often that we can't realize our equity but IP player can.

If you assign an 8 or 10% RFI to the v tight UTG opener, KTs does poorly against that range (it's like a 40:60 dog). We are generally gonna flop draws with that hand which wants to see two further cards. But unless UTG is weak (in which case he might fold hands we're flipping against), we will usually need to play either flop or turn aggressively.

Jae Kim But even under the assumption he won't fold AJ/AQ, there are 6 combos of QQ in his range which must fold. There are 6 combos of JJ which must fold. There are 3 combos of KK which must fold.

That's folding out 15 combos which have +/- 50% equity vs us.

Yes, we don't wanna fold out QsJs. But that's just one combo. He can't have any other FD because the As is on board and we hold KsTs. Unless he's opening Qs9s, Js9s, 9s8s or such from UTG which I doubt, that's just one combo we don't wanna raise.

There are 12 combos of AJ, 12 combos of AQ, and 6 combos of AK.

Finally, there are 3 combos of AA and one combo of TT. In total, there are 50 combos UTG could have which matter in this situation.

Therefore, if we raise as played,

• 15/50 = 30% of the time we force a big pair with ~50% equity vs us to fold which is a huge win (UTG stands to win about 1150 chips in expected value in that node, we're taking those away from him)
• 30/50 = 60% of the time we put in money as a slight dog, we have a -EV of slightly under 200 chips from doing so.
• 5/50 = 10% of the time we're putting money in bad and have a -EV of roughly
  830 chips (I'm using the bet sizing as played by your student).

So, back-of-the-envelope calculation:

0.3 x 1150 + 0.5 x (-200) + 0.1 (-830) = 162.

Obviously, this is simplified quite a bit but the back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests the raise is very high in +EV even if all it does is folding out all JJ-KK combos.

As I said, I am a cash player for the most part so I have no clue how ICM is a factor here. But in a vaccum, this is highly +EV. Part of the story is that UTG will have a dominated FD almost never (based on opening ranges and card removal effects/combinatorics).

Addendum: I mean, I guess our range is hard to define. I think we should be playing very tight vs. a UTG reg open when we're in the SB.

I mostly 3b or fold here. I guess I could see myself flatting some big Aces, JJ-99, and some suited broadways on occasion.

But when we're check-raising the flop, the UTG reg won't consider hands such as 98s as they are not in our range. I suppose we might cold-call with something like A5s on occasion but that hand has flopped top and bottom pair.

We're very unlikely to c/r bluff into two players with a hand such as JJ here. So I think UTG must def give up with KK/QQ/JJ and probably give up with AJ.

I am a cash player for the most part and really enjoyed this entry-level video on MTTs. I am posting as I actually don't understand the logic behind the AT5tt board. We're sitting in the SB with KTs. A reg from UTG opens, we flat, rec BB comes along. We flop a FD and 2nd pair, reg cbets. Your suggestion is to flat-call once again there.

I do understand we're like 50:50 or slightly behind vs. a hand like AQ. BUT: Our hand is super-robust. We're never almost dead here. Even against AA we have 30% equity. Further, we have a blocker vs. TT (only one combo possible) and a tightish reg is unlikely to open 55 from UTG.

And, as you say, our equity isn't that great against a big Ace. However, we're blocking some AK combos, we're also blocking some AT combos.

And finally, here comes my point: A big Ace (with AJ and AQ being by far the most likely combinatorically) is gonna throw up a little if we raise. A hand like AJ can either be very slightly ahead or very, very far behind our range.

IMO, the only reason for us to flat is to keep dominated FDs which are very far behind in (even QJs we have crushed). But I don't think UTG has many of these in its range.

If he as a hand such as QQ, we can again make him fold with the raise. Making that hand fold by applying maximum is a huge win for us as QQ with a BDFD has 52% equity vs us.

So what do you think? tl;dr my point is that with a raise, we might be able to deny AJ or AQ realizing their equity.