dubdubdublin

neat, can you explain the rationale. I would think it was a fold pre tho, no?

Hey man, I'm new here and looking to study too. I'm Irish and play low stakes mtts :)

Unless I'm misreading this, I'm like 90 percent sure you should fold pre lol. With 30 bb, this is not a hand you should be flatting in the sb. Being shallow enough at 30bb , this category of hand loses value as it doesn't realize its equity often or benefit from the implied odds it would if you were deeper.

As for your frequencies, I would imagine with a nut and range disadvantage on this board you would optimally check. Although seeing as you're already getting out of line. Perhaps you should lead out for half pot. If villain folds 1/3 of the time, you've got a winning play lol.

Hey :)

Could you go into a little more depth about what you mean here if you have a sec? I find it quite interesting!

FWIW, my analysis is that perhaps a turn raise makes a lot of sense here? I'm happy to have my analysis picked apart but the gist is that the range that almost all of heros inferior made hands are likely to call on such a safe turn. Furthermore, there is no guarantee hero will bet the river with a variety of potential scare cards and being oop, you could lose so much value from AQ, AJ A5 A8 and even AK by letting them get to showdown here. Fuck it if AA and KK stack you because holistically, you're ahead of so much of heros value range.

I like the flop call in the event that villain has a bluff, to possibly keep them barrelling on turns if that is the case. The relevant turn cards I can think of are really only an A and a K, as that improves AK, which is the main contender for getting stacks in good with. Diamonds should almost never improve villains hand, and are basically irrelevant imo.

From villains perspective, there are considerably more scare cards on turn as hero has far more diamond combos (kjd kqd k10d qjd j10d 109d 98d), as well as the Q, J and 10 as they improve J10, Q10 and QJ to respective straights)

As the 8 is so entirely innocuous and it becomes less likely villain is bluffing, I think there is an argument to raising here. The reason is that there may be some hands that villain checks back in position on the straight/ flush completing cards that wont fold to a turn raise on an off-suit ace. My feeling here is that you should have no issue going broke in this spot as you're ahead of most of villains value range, and that's before the hero calls that they may make. Like, I just feel the turn guarantees more value against the AK combos you want to call and if villain has a value hand, they simply cannot be making hero folds as you have an extremely capped range (barring bizarre preflop play lol ) . So seeing as your raise becomes essentially geared towards getting value from villains calling range on turn, the turn brick seems like the best time to do it. The board is absurdly safe and I think this is a spot where villains calling range will be at its broadest.

From an exploitative and psychological perspective, even on brick rivers I feel the player pool will find the turn a lot easier to call than the river in this situation. It is far more likely villain hero folds AK , AQ and AJ on the river than the turn.

Im from Ireland! Lets make it happen

Hi, I am also playing the same buy ins! I am also quite ambitious about improving too and would be happy to join up and try to improve my game!