dsm2235

Note: After some thought, I decided to take out the one combo of AKss that I thought villain might have. This is a tough question though. To answer this, we would need to determine which one of those options improves his hand the least according to his range, and that's the card we prefer. After a quick look, I think from the choices listed above, the 4s seems best bc it doesn't really change anything, and it will possibly keep flush draws from betting aggressively.

+1

I lead there because some strong aces will float that flop, all Axhh calls, any other flush draw calls, all pocket pairs call. You get a ton of calls with good hands that you beat and a lot of floats with hands that are drawing thin on a flop like that. I'd never check that flop on an anonymous site like Bovada, assuming that's where you're playing.

Let's look at all the hands that beat you that call IP against you preflop: JTs = 2 combos; KJs = 2 combos; AJs = 2 combos; AJo = 6 combos; QJs = 2 combos; 44 = combos; JJ = 1 combo; AA/KK/QQ = 3 combos bc of discount (assuming at least one of the villains would 4bet QQ+ almost every time, especially the LAG after fish calls 3bet).
Total = You lose to ROUGHLY 21 combos of hands that call your cbet.

Now let's look at all the hands which you beat: all Axhh = 10 combos; KQhh = 1 combo; T9hh = 1 combo; 98hh = 1 combo. 55-TT = 6 combos each = 36 combos. You might even add 1 or 2 combos for under pairs that call randomly call flop. For this argument, we won't add them. Lastly, we'll say the fish folds, and the LAG floats you with 1 combo of AKss with high hopes for a backdoor FD/SD.
Total = You beat ROUGHLY 50 combos of hands that call your cbet.

So you win 50/71 times when you cbet flop. That's not including the dead money you pick up from FE with a standard cbet when you don't have anything on that board and they both fold. So basically, I think it's always a cbet w/QQ, often a cbet with air, but sometimes a XF with air depending on game flow.

I like to triple barrel bluff on the btn vs. a villain in the blinds who isn't playing a ton of hands. I think players fold mostly when the turn and river are both over cards to the flop (but only if it's likely that you would have one of those over cards in your hand). Also, if your credibility at that table is bad, then you really shouldn't try for a triple barrel bluff. If you get called down one time, you'll just look like an aggro fish that doesn't know what he's doing, and people will eventually start calling you with middle pair. This is when you start 3 barrel value-betting your top pair, good kicker hands.

With that being said, I never bluff with zero equity and obviously there are a billion other things to take into consideration, but for beginning purposes, I think this is an easy situation to bluff, and it works a decent amount of the time.

I think a HUD increases your win rate if you apply the stats properly to each situation, but Idk how much it actually increases. I wouldn't use my HUD if I didn't believe it helped though. I'm just saying you can be a winning player without one. If that's a lie, then no one could be a winning live player.

Bet smaller on the flop for sure. Cbet 1/2 pot or 2/3 pot. Play turn with caution if heart comes.

I find river overbets to be nutted more often than not. I'd say like 60%+ of the time, they're valuebetting when they overbet pot. I'd fold. I don't think he bets $35 w/ AT either.

I use # of hands, VPIP, PFR, 3b/fold to 3b, AF, cbet/fold to cbet, WWSF, WSD, W$SD. I believe those are the only stats I look at when I make a tough decision. If I just need a few stats to make an easy decision, I look at VPIP and PFR. It's really not complex. People have put the HUD on a pedestal. I beat 25nl for 40k hands without a HUD when I was starting out, and I know a guy who plays HU and zoom games full time that still doesn't use a HUD.

+1. Also, you're probably ahead of his range with Ace-high anyways. Check flop.

+1

Just a general assumption: I'd say his semi-bluffs are probably bigger OTT most of the time, and I don't think he would bet less than 1/2 pot OTR in a 3way pot w/air. It looks like he's value betting and wants a call, so you should fold OTT if that's accurate (not to mention you don't know how MP will react to a raise and your flat call). As played, fold again OTR.

FWIW, I always 3b AK PF against fish, and I 3b like 3.5x. The raise on the flop isn't bad. He's either drawing or has the same idea as you: "it's a wet board, so I want to protect my hand." When you raise, he calls with every draw that's in his range, and he probably shoves a set/two pair. As played, when this other random guy 3bets you without having hardly invested any money in the pot, he's showing greater strength than anyone else in the hand. There's like $0.50 in the pot, and he risks $6. That isn't a random bluff. I think he expects you to call, therefore, fold.

Stack sizes also make this hand weird. Just fold flop, no reason to float there. He's favored w/pocket pairs, 2 live cards+FD, or any Jx hands. As played, I'd fold turn when he puts in half of his remaining stack. Yeah, you're getting good equity against FDs and pocket pairs now, but I don't think it's likely that he has a FD or pocket pair OTT. Plus, even if he has Axhh, then you're losing OTR like 25% of the time. Not a good spot to bluff catch bc you'll be right sometimes, but you end up losing a lot more I think.

Verneer and MDoranD (CardRunners) have the best micro/small stakes videos I've seen.

+2