dickinsonpkr

Thanks fot the advice! I see 99 is a reasonable hand to play postflop IP against a late agressor. But would you consider 3betting slightly lower pairs such as 66 77 88 as more profitable in that spot to gain fold equity? Or would you go for the same flat strategy?

To your first question I would say you raised from very early position so your percived range is quite strong. Another factor is that he is 3betting from the small blind OOP so his range is getting narrower. Another factor in consideration is that his 3bet is quite small for OOP so he might be trying to induce a marginal call with weaker hands. What I'm trying to say is that he doesn't seem concerned with your range. He could have JJ-AA or even 1010 or 99 if he's had a leaky attitude but difficult really given the other circumstances. He could also have AK AQ and maybe AJ suited. less than that is difficult to belive if he's a decent player.

The flop is pretty dry board with which he would Cbet with all the above range. The sizing is really big tho that might mean he might be concerned with protecting his medium high pocker pair or he's simply trying to bluff you out with AQ AK in a bit of a silly way.

The turn size is really big too which again may mean he has a high pair such as 1010 JJ QQ but is kind of scared of higher cards you are hoping for, even so KK or AA are ovbiously still possible. The bet sizing really bugs me in the sense it is still possible he is bluffing AK AQ AJ hands so it is definitely a tough spot because you might be in ahead of his range quite a good amount of times.

To your second question you are getting 2.25 to 1 odds so it's quite a tough spot. the fact is he could be in front a few more times than you. Also if you fold you would still 38bb if I'm correct. Just the fact that it is a bit guessing decision if you belive his range is that strong or not. Certainly he doesn't have loads more bluffs than value range in his hand, so as I said it's a bit of a coinflip decision.

Also I think because of stack sizes if you though he's pretty leaky you could have easly 4betted 3x him with no commitment to the pot and see where you are and not having to be guessing postflop like you chase. So I think calling his 3bet would be a better strategy in early stages of mtt with deeper stacks.

The answer to you 3rd question would be personally I would be inclined to fold because I'm not commited in any way to the pot and have plenty of bb to continue to play.

On a personal note I would give you the advice that in these kind of hard spots, specially in advanced phases in tournaments it is better to stay away from them and not try to guess by calling if you are not commited (if you are not sure about his bluff combos). Just forget the hand and move on if you have a decent stack.

Luis Dickinson.