datredline

Hey Daniel, can you elaborate a little on the QT hand at min ~17:10.
You say we can't really x/call a hand like K9o, why do you think that is?
Is it because villain has a somewhat active turn cbet frequency?
Whatwould be the downside of delaying x/raises to the turn with our (semi) bluffs and with our value hands?

I would really appreciate your thoughts on this

I don't agree, he could have peeled a ton of club combos, like JcTc, AcQc, Tc9c, KcQc, Ac4c etc... you can't really check/fold a hand like JdJx, TdTx or hat about AdAx etc.

It might be true that the avarage reg on NL100 isn't bluffing as much as he maybe should in that spot, but I find that spot just interesting in general.

Hey, thanks for the reply :)

I used a roughly ~17% ORange for EP and made very very conservative assumptions about our equity realization (60%) and this is of course the reason 33 being a -0.34EV call pre.No one really knows what the EQR will be here,

but I just estimated 60%, because:

-villains range is tight and strong
-he is likely cbetting most flops and even his bluffs(T9s/QJo etc.) with overcards have somewhat decent Equity around 25-30% + he might be barreling frequently OTT/OTR
-we rarely improve postflop, even if we call some flops it will be very hard for our hand to get to showdown or to be turned into a bluff on most runouts

so besides the 12% of the time we flop a set (and get coolered some of the time) it feels kinda rough to play that hand postflop and I would rather choose connected stuff like T9s etc.

What do you tihnk?

Hey Juan,

can you elaborate a little more on the A8o fold at min ~9 BvB ?
It feels like the 8 as a kicker is quite high, as we 3b most good aces and have alot qorse kickers below the 8 in that spot without a pair).
I'm not sure how wide your calling range BBvsSB is, but assuming we defend by just calling 40% preflop and defend
TP+, any pair, FDs, BDFD (basically anything with a J/Q/K/A) , GS, Str8 Draws, AJ-A9

and fold: A3s/A4s/A5s/A8s (without BDFD),K8o-KQo, A3o-A5o and some other offsuited stuff

we end up defending ~60% (i quickly plugged in the numbers in CREV, might have made little mistakes, but overall the defending freq. should hover around 60%)

but given the fact that villain is still able to see the turn most of the time after his bet and realize a little more of his equity, we probably have to defend a little more than 60%, which means that we have to call almost all Ax cuz of the highcard value here?!

Or am I making some wrong assumptions?
It will of course somewhat depend on villains cbet strategy, and i'm not sure if we can simply use the min.defending freq. formula in this particular spot.

Thought it was quite interesting and i'm looking forward to an answer :)

min ~13 we're calling 33 pre BBvsEP. I see it quite often in coaching videos, but was always wondering how good it is to call the small PPs in that spot vs EP (22-55).
I don't know how the higher stakes play on zoom, but most of the regs on my limit have ~15%OR in EP, which means just flatting 33 is slightly -EV assuming we won't be able to realize a lot of our equity.Villains range will be pretty strong overall and we would have to peel some flops (probably stuff like 886 ?!), it's also more likely for villain to cooler us with a higher set, when we call small PPs..so I am really struggling with this type of hand and whether I want to defend it or not vs EP.

Thanks for the video btw :)