daraduda

Hello,

Very interesting hand at the end.

I have some questions about it.

Do we really go for three streets of value with JJ/QQ/AA? Isnt it too thin in that spot?

Is that a good spot to continue with our bluffs on the river? Hands like QJ/AsQs/AsJs? Which hands you are going to bluff on the river in that spot?

While AK is a clear value bet cuz we are pretty much at the top of our range, how do we approach this spot with a hand like KJ? Do we still go for three streets vs very good opponent? Do we expect him to call down worse enough to make it profitable? What is your value betting range on the river against a good opponent?

Is AK a clear chk/shove in his shoes? Is he expecting to get called by worse ever?

What if Hero is some unknown player to ZackAttack? Is it more of a fold then? Since Zack wouldnt know if hero is capable of making big folds and wouldnt be that happy to turn Tx/QsJs into a blu

As others stated, he have 12 value combos if he is flatting AK every time pre. I dont know the guys and how he plays AK, but I would just go with that he flats all of them just to see how we stand and how many bluffs we need him to have, to make this call +EV.

On the video it says that, we need to be good 31% of the time to make this call profitable, but according to my calculations, we actually need 35%? Am I doing something wrong there?

So if we need to be good 35% of the times, we need him to have 5 combos that he is turning into a bluff to make it +EV call. So 12 value combos and 5 bluff combos. Do we expect him to get to the river with all of his Tx hands? If his preflop range consists T7s+ and JTo,QTo,T9o, those are 42 combinations of hands, so we need him to turn just 5 of those 42, to make this a call.

Now what our range looks like on the river?

Im not sure how good is to go for three streets with AA/QQ (not sure about JJ so I wouldnt include it) here, but lets say we sometimes do (50% of combinations). Our range prolly looks something like AA(3*)/KK(1)/QQ(3*),TT(3),44(3),AK(8),KTs(2),KQs(2),KQo(6) and some bluffing hands(?) like AsQs(1),AsJs(1),QsJs(1) which I dont think changes anything in this spot, cuz he beats them any way? Thats 34 combinations, 31 of those are value combos.

Now what do we think about his thought process during the hand? Is he expecting us to fold everything but FHs? If so, than out of 31 value combos, he is expecting us to fold AA(3),QQ(3),KQ(8),AK(8) thats 24 combos which means we are calling 7 combinations and folding 24 and in his eyes, this means we fold ~75% of the times and call 25%, right? (I might be wrong here Q_Q) He is risking 12K to win 18K so his bluff needs to work ~66 of the times (might be wrong once again :D) which in his eyes it does.

Now if he dont exect us to fold AK, then we fold 14 out of 31 combos, which are ~45% and now his bluff will work 55% of the times, which changes things and he should be too happy to bluff this UNLESS he holds Tx blocker which reduces our value combos.

At the end Im folding the river if its me in heros shoes, cuz I dont expect him to make a move on me, without knowing how I play and if im capable of making big folds, or not.

Please feel free to correct my leet math skillz if you see something wrong. I would really appriciate that!

This is probably gonna be just 1 more stupid question about this stuff with the loose calls for the bounties but are you saying that we should call from the BB if someone open shoves full stack at start with ATC ?