d0zer

could you clarify why Ax hands are betting the turn (i assume flop is a range bet) and did you get < A9 as a river bluff by purely balancing combos of 99+ or was something extra involved ?

please, this is only for big players

you already know the answer if you even had to make a thread about this

pretty good post, i think as a general outline doug is just trying to point out that the wannabe gto-trip that everyone is on will most of the time be executed poorly enough that an experienced exploitative player will still tear it apart. is it possible to assign frequences (and more precisely, ranges) to those frequencies in pio with the node-locker function ?

sounds like street poker

the more equity their bluffs have the wider you need to defend to make their bluffs breakeven

something i think to look out for is given how you are bottom 75% is that c/ring 10% might not be your best choice if he barrels through aggressively and has solid ranges for betting flops and defending vs cr

easiest start really is to create a sim where you check how many hands he can valuebet on the flop, add the best corresponding bluffs to his range and then develop your own calling range for that. ideally you would do this from the river backwards and base it on his betsizes of course. these things will take time but it will be worth it if u want to go in depth, doing rough guesswork will really not get u anywhere these days

why are his checks very +EV with any hand ? if we play a reasonably aggro strategy in BB we will deny equity to a ton of his hands by leading turns/rivers or barreling through vs checks. if he never bluffs then my calls lose in -EV since he is valueheavy, but all his air gets transferred to the turn where he .. well always has air and is always folding to bets. i'm just trying to stay away from strong absolutes here and still completely fail to understand why you guys think SB is somehow in the raping seat here. even with 14bb poker there are more streets than just flop to play, and if you do something silly on the earlier streets you will get punished for it on the later streets vs competent players, hence you need to have reasonable frequencies and ranges for doing stuff

the way i see it there are basically 2 options - first one is that SB limp traps so little that its pretty much insigifnicant for our analysis and the other one is that he limp traps a ton allowing us a lot more free equity. either way i don't really see much merit to start giving too much weight to his preflop slowplayed monsters.surely you don't think SB limps all of his big pairs at 14bb or even 50% of them

thanks for the replies Steve, that part is much clearer for me now I guess

I still don't necessarily agree with BB range being that much weaker though but that's a whole different discussion. OP lined it out as SB being slightly stronger maybe, which as far as percentages goes is probably like what, BB raises top 35% of hands usually so sees flop w 65% this way. I don't see that many SB strategies that involve limping that could give him a big enough equity advantage on this texture to warrant being extremely aggressive and having very +EV bets so easily

What I still have not understood is why everyone seems to think that our limping range i strong enough to warrant us a profitable c-bet with the bottom of our range when BB range is something like 65%ish ? of hands and SB is unknown but described as slightly stronger in OP.

At the end of the day I am just doing some nitpicking here anyway, and shibulon - on the contrary, I think we shouldn't be betting every bluff in our range as they have higher EVs playing vs a weaker range on the turn or river as a part of a balanced and strong gameplan

Also Nick

it's easiest if you visualize what would happen if BB tried to make the bottom 25% of SBs optimal bluffing range ~0EV to bluff.

isn't the definition of an optimal bluffing range that the lowest EV hand in it is roughly 0EV ? in which case I don't really understand the meaning of that sentence.

at this point i feel like im trolling in a lone boat a bit so no hard feelings anyone, just building some discussion and expressing what I've understood about the game so far, it seems like some of the things going on itt are still illogical to me.

i dont really understand why or how any sort of SB strat should allow for an automatic bet with ATC after limping 14bb deep HU, given that preflop strategy is tailored with the flop still being unknown. i think a certain amount of simplification is healthy but yours seemed to go on a whole other level.

stacks are still "deep" enough that the usual issues apply - the ones that Nick outlined quite nicely. i highly doubt the preflop ranges here are such to allow SB a profitable bet with ATC on the flop. that will simply mean he will become vulnerable to flop floats which will make him start adjusting his betting strategy from betting everything to betting more reasonable ranges and so the game of together they move closer to the equilibrium begins ...

the later part of your analysis seems to completely neglect the fact that there might be more profitable lines to take for villain by say c/c/b or c/b/c or c/b/b etc than merely automatically betting his entire limping range when checked to

dont take 1-a too seriously. if u have 0 info on his frequencies just call down with the reasonable hands for doing so and thats it - this particular hand being in the fold category for the most part as u should have a decent calldown frequency without having to tip too low

this is a really clear call vs anyone that you don't have a very strong reason to do otherwise against and random tourney regs don't fall into that category

actually 10% advantage I guess

yeah IP will be almost always realizing more of his equity, it's just that when Santaur writes

"And fwiw I don't think 55/45 is a huge hot cold equity when BU vs BB flat. But I haven't looked into it in a while. I do agree that it would be a lot in other situations just not BU vs BB. Maybe you can confirm or reject."

I don't quite get what is meant by that, does he mean that ranges are wide enough that the 5% equity advantage will be tough to capitalize on properly or what ? I think if BB 3-bets both AJ and 99 preflop he will be in a bit of trouble on brick runouts on AJ9r and the equity advantage will become quite obvious if BTN is capable of applying pressure. Am I missing something ?

why do the positions matter in hot cold equity advantage ? and significantly large % being Ax is kind of irrelevant given how they will mostly all be bluffcatchers by the time the river bet goes in

wisdom-hammer smashing so hard

are we not leaving ourselves way too vulnerable to brick runouts by cring all/most of our big hands on either the flop or turn here ? or is getting more money in the middle vs all the 98 QJ FD etc etc type hands more important than letting them triple, as well as "punishing" hands like AT JJ QQ KJ that are going for bet twice thinnish and check rivers ?

just pay attention to players frequencies for 3-betting and folding to 4-bets, it is entirely possible that the combination of their tight ranges you are being overly aggressive with these hands. just try to avoid vast generalizations for playing - it is very easy to get suck into the mindset of "ok i've been always getting these in pre and this doesn't seem to be working" to switching to "ok im not going to 4-bet QQ AK ever"

these hands will have higher EV 4-betting in 95% cases so either you're experiencing a poor run, you're filters are incorrect or you just have a biased memory. also if you are getting a lot of folds vs 4-bets and aggression in general, it's usually smart to skew your ranges in a way that gains most by them folding

dont bet flop

its fine as played

yeah folding on this runout at any point would be ridicolous, like literally every single draw bricked off

dont worry about the ratios at this point, they won't be of much practical use. basically vs someone folding 65% to river bets your EVbet > EVcheck up until you have a very significant amount of SD value so that you are happy about checking. in practical terms, just bluff everything

seems fine

it's still not a very appealing 3-bet pre despite your thin reads trying to justify it, postflop i think your more passive options on flop/turn will yield a higher EV than the bet-bet-hoping to bluffcatch vs AdXx or generally shitty situations will do

looks good

call

fold pre, post standard