crazysqueezy

No point in arguing about it. Good to know how other players are thinking about these situations.

I think flop should be a check. Our opponent really isn't folding enough of his range on this flop to have a profitable cbet here and we have Ahi which can catch up if it isn't already the best hand. Probably just playing a super small pot here and giving up on a lot of turns and rivers. A5o we really just wanted to steal the blinds.

Certainly a thought provoking article. The first question that comes to my mind is, why do we want to balance a x/r with QQ? Or more specifically why do we want to turn QQ into a bluff on this flop? It seems to me leading QQ and AQ on this flop get called by worse often enough to make both plays maximize EV and balance each other. QQ can get called by enough floats and draws to play for value as we can still catch up if we are behind some top pairs or 2 pairs. Our opponent is fairly capped and we remain uncapped. I don't think we really need a x/r range here. I could be wrong and am open to debate.

Well I actually think his range is a little more narrow than some, excluding overpairs and weaker trips. But even then its still a call IMO. He's going to bluff catch with some of his weaker value hands on a scary board. So I think you'll be running into strong hands with some frequency but you still are getting a great price to bluff catch vs his missed draws.

You're getting 3:1 to make a river call so even if you're running into the nuts here, he should still have enough bluffs in his range to make the call +EV.

If I'm understanding correctly you're looking for hands to 3 bet that play well by calling 4 bets particularly 4 bet bluffs. So I guess this range would take on similar properties to your pre-flop calling range in that you want to have hands that are too good to fold but not good enough to shove but a narrow range?

That's true, but not really what I'm implying. If you're just trying to stimulate a strategy discussion then yeah, by all means. My suggestion was if you were looking for really good answers I think you're more likely to find them higher up. But I like this discussion so am happy to try and contribute.

That makes sense, and yet seems really advanced for low stakes. You might get better answers in mid or high stakes forums.

I think if your opponent is 4 betting an optimal frequency to defend his opening range he has to fold to a shove often enough to make shoving KK+ and A5s a balanced strategy. The problem with this is, in practice at least at low stakes, opponents are not 4 bet bluffing enough and so this becomes spew vs non-optimal opponents. And vs opponents that are 4 bet calling too wide, you would need to add more value hands such as AKo and QQ and eliminate bluffs.

Good questions I don't have the answers to. I'm working on similar problems lately and was referred to this article by another RIO member about optimal 3b-4b-5b ranges. I'm finding it quite helpful and it may be able to help you answer these questions. http://en.donkr.com/forum/optimal-3-bet4-bet5-bet-strategies-in-nlhe-6-max---part-1-533561

If you are already versed in this material, my apologies but it may help someone else who is willing to do the work.

I would. You have to be comfortable playing post flop and figuring out where you are in a hand. People make a lot of bad plays simply because it makes the hand easier to play, when the more difficult line that makes you think is more +EV.

Hands that want to get the money in on this flop: combo draws, nuts, some weaker 2 pairs vs bad players. Sets are unlikely but possible, as most players 3bet anything that makes a set on this flop. Its important to know what kind of player your opponent is so you can determine if he's calling your open w/ any 2 suited or if he's a solid player and has a tighter range. Some fish don't 3bet anyting and can have sets on this flop.

Call flop, evaluate turn is probably going to be the best play to get more value on later streets from weaker hands that fold to your flop raise.

It's pretty standard in most games to min raise or 2.5x from the button. The reason is because you are going to do it with a wide (not strong) range and it allows you to keep the pot small with weaker hands, disguise your stronger hands, and lose less when you have to fold to 3bets or be able to call smaller 3bets wider in position.

Good video. I happen to like both styles you do. I like to see you thinking under pressure and making fast decisions and I like to hear your more nuanced and complex analysis. Mix it up IMO :)

On the slowplayed AA hand I think it would have been better to call flop, call any turn keeping all his bluffs in. Also I think timing down the way you did both preflop and flop is kinda transparent making you look stronger than you want to look. Think a little bit, but when you think that long on both streets regs know what's up.

Great video. You're analysis is always very thought provoking. I have a question on one hand though. Top left 45:29 you have QJs and flop 2nd pair + FD and check flop, check turn, bet river. Can you rep a bluff here or thin enough value to get called by worse?

It seems to me most of your range is showdown bound at this point with no need to bluff and villain probably doesn't pay off the river bet with worse. Would it have been better to bet turn and river to rep more missed draws and get looked up lighter and/or charge draws on the turn?

Also this would strengthen your delayed cbet range.

I was curious about the A5s hand and the math behind it. With no other info don't we have to assume he's playing GTO in this spot before we can do any math? With no info I'm not sure how you would go about determining value vs bluff combos. I mean we kinda have to know a little about his BTN 3b strategy before we can develop a counter strategy. Or am I just completely missing something? At the very least we need to know his BTN 3b frequency, right? I mean if he's 3b 2% in this spot I don't think we can have any combos of bluffs. There must be something about this situation I'm not understanding, I hope you can enligten me. Thanks Phil, you rock.

Good video, good fold with KK (standard). Its funny to watch your mouse cursor hunting for stats. Like a puppy dog with an empty food bowl :D

Here's an idea. You could take a winning player at low stakes and coach him or her to move up stakes and how to adjust for each limit. They would obviously learn the player pool, common stats and tendencies at those limits and you both could talk about that in the videos. That could be a whole series with power point and hand review. I know its a lot of work, but I know people would really get a lot from it and it could generate a lot of buzz.

Other than that I really enjoy your videos. You're analysis is great.

Epic calling station :D

One more thing to add. Watching a leakfinder of a good player is far more valuable to me than watching a leakfinder of a player making a lot of mistakes, simply because you can assume there is a thought process behind the good players actions where the less skilled player will just leave you scratching your head for most of the video wondering why you watch. So maybe Phil didn't improve Jonna's game by leaps and bounds but his commentary did lead to some very interesting analysis and discussion that for me at least is very useful.

I play mostly NL and have dabbled in PLO here and there having to figure out a lot of stuff on my own. Even with my limited skill level in PLO I find there are a lot of players at these stakes and lower who would benefit if they understood the concepts in this video. This video was very helpful to me and I think a lot of talk about stats would have lost my interest completely. 

The impression I get of players that have these concepts down are probably beating these games and are ready to upgrade to elite and move up stakes.

Also I like the idea of a two half videos a month, one being NL and one being PLO.

Great analysis. I think it would be optimal with 2 tables though and you can always sit out to explain complex spots in more detail.

 There was a hand where you considered 3b bluffing vs an 8% UTG open when you were MP, but chose to fold. What hands would you be flatting and 3b for value there?

Yeah, game selection is getting tougher and you're right about not keeping too much cash online. Basically I use holdemmanager and can find out pretty quickly who the regs are in the games by their stats and try to avoid sitting with too many of them. Not easy to find I admit, but its possible.  Mostly its about knowing when the regs have ended their shift and playing fewer and fishier tables at the right times. That's all learned through time and observation.

Of course there are plenty of bad regs too and really the only way you're going to figure out who they are is by playing hands with them and seeing exploitable patterns and stats. In today's games, unless you are 1 tabling a bunch of fish, you really need a HUD if you want to have an edge. 

BTW I doubt you are a losing live player, more likely you are decent at poker and just haven't fully adjusted to the differences online. You have a great thing going for you in that you are honest with yourself about your leaks, now you can plug them. As far as which game to play, as long as you continue to study, practice and improve just play what you enjoy.

For tilt problems I highly recommend reading some stuff by Tommy Angelo and lop off your C game. Also a big part of your tilt problems may be from playing underrolled. If 1 or 2 pots can ruin your session you may be playing higher than your level of calm can afford. You may also be playing against players that are just better than you which can be tilting, and so maybe implement better game selection.

Fold draws more often when not getting a good price. Don't raise draws if you think your opponents range is strong. Don't rely too much on implied odds. Look at opponents betting frequencies to determine if they are bluffing too much. Balance your call-down range with more strong hands to make it harder to bluff you.

TBH I don't see how multi barrel bluffs w/out reads can be good at any stakes. To get the read you take the same line for value and that tells you who's folding and who isn't. Finding good spots to barrel is as much about knowing your opponents frequencies and ranges at micros as it is at any other stake.

After a handful of orbits you should have enough stats to know who the fishier players are at any given table. You know you can't bluff those 35-5s and people are 3betting much less frequently at the micro stakes so you have to be careful not to overplay hands like AK and JJ. So basically if you adjust for these 2 things and just play a tight solid game with few bluffs until you have specific reads it might help improve your winrate.

I saw a guy just today 3bet/call all-in on the flop with 2nd pair top kicker, and I suspect he was putting his opponent on a flush draw. He didn't understand equity obviously and had no idea he was making a -EV play longterm, he just thought he had the best hand and his opponent was bluffing. He was right. His opponent showed up with the bottom of his range, a flush draw with overcards to 2nd pair and sucked out.

I'm no GTO expert by any means, but according to what I've seen in videos made by people that are, holdem is nowhere near solved for GTO. 

For example pre flop and on the flop there are so many permutations of possibilities from varying bet sizes and stack sizes, to players polarizing and linearizing etc. and mixing up their ranges that writing a program to solve each and every possibility is very far fetched imo. Play 150BB stacks with an ante and there are even more variables involved.

As the experts I've heard talk about it, hands are much more solvable on the turn and river, and are very player dependent. AFIK there is no mathemagical algebraic formula you can plug into a computer that just solves every situation. Computers at this point in time are input-output machines, they don't come up with the optimal strategies, at least not until the internet becomes self aware. Humans do that. And those optimal lines are ever changing as players create new and different ways to play hands and ranges.

But most importantly when playing against another human being we are always ebbing and flowing into and out of balance beyond our own awareness. This is what creates the competitive edge in poker. As long as we are playing against other human beings we will be able to adapt and find edges in a sort of Darwinian survival of the fittest contest of wills. Our human flesh computers (brains) have had the benefit of millions of years of competitive evolution and still have not brought us to the point of perfect competition.

At this point in time I think any piece of poker software that claims to have solved GTO is going to capture the attention of players that believe in that myth and sell more copies. That said, maybe this would be a good tool to hone strategies that will allow us to recognize and beat bots, so if we do start playing them more often we will have developed strategies for exploiting them.