Mike Ferrell

Phil, I'm pretty sure that the F3B stat that was being displayed is just "anytime there is a 3bet at the table and you fold." So if utg raises, co 3bets and we fold otb, that counts as a F3B. That's where the ridic high F3B stat came from I believe. The stat we want to look at is, "fold to 3b after raising."

hmm wonder why...

meh he 3xed it pre so no 76s i wouldn't think in your range, but the other ones are all there, and your strongest hands are discounted relative to them since you didn't raise flop or turn.

8:00
not a fan of the QJdd river fold. seems like a lot of your perceived range is 76s, 77, A8s, T9s etc. don't you think he can be vbetting TT/JJ, A9s there, or no?

yep, i think shovings no good pre there. if my math is right, it looks like you'd need about 62% FE to breakeven on the shove. this would be assuming we get it in vs a range of 88+, AQ+, which we've got 31% equity against.

so i was thinking of shoving flop, but c/r small actually might have some merit, but let's look at shoving first.

so i said KJ-AK was 61 combos, but i ignored the fact that KJdd/KQdd are in there and obv aren't folding, so it's actually 59. let's also add QJs to his pf range? so that adds 2 combos to his range that's folding (QJhh, QJcc), so that gets us back to 61. and then i said 47 combos that are getting it in, and we're gonna add KJdd/KQdd/QJdd to that, so 50 combos total getting it in now.

Board: Th 6d 5d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.250% 18.25% 00.00% 7769 0.00 { AdJs }
Hand 1: 81.750% 81.75% 00.00% 34801 0.00 { TT+, 66-55, ATs, KdQd, KdJd, KTs, QdJd, QTs, JTs, T9s }

so we've got 18.25% vs his get it in range. and our FE is 61/(61+50) = 55%

EV(shove) = (12,480*0.55) + (0.45)*(74,706*0.1825 - 33,113)
EV(shove) = 6864 - 8765
EV(shove) = -1902

so yeah, c/shoving flop seems bad as well.

yo what up Todd!

i feel like we should be shoving that T4s OTB at 28:30 w/ 5bbs effective and the blinds going up rapidly. haven't done any math on it but just seems like a shove intuitively.

also at like 26:00ish that AdJs hand where u defend the bb. do u think he's opening KJo/KQ there pre? if so, that's gonna end up being quite a few combos that we can get to fold relative to the sets, overpairs and TP.

AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ is 61 combos. sets are 9 combos, overpairs are 18, then T9s, JTs, QTs, KTs, AT is 20, so 47 total. meh that's closer than i thought it was gonna be when i started writing this haha.

aggggghhhh folding 99 to a btn squeeze hj v co v bu!!! (6:30)

Yo what up Sean! Really enjoying this series so far, and v much looking forward to the bu v bb one. I also think it's a good idea to have a little live action at the end like you've been doing. Just think it balances out nicely w/ the dry nature of the theory content.

So you mention that you like minraising CO vs BTNS that are going to be 3bing a ton so that it makes 3bets easier to deal with. This makes sense to me. But at the same time, aren't we effectively making stack sizes deeper when we're OOP vs a tough opponent? Obviously, if we could choose to be 150bb deep or 100bb deep OOP vs a tough player, we'd choose to be 100bbs. I'm wondering if you can talk about this apparent contradiction here, and which one wins out.

Thanks,
Mike

@dharalll- i agree that it's really hard for us to get to the river w/ much air here as well. wrt villain not raising turn w/ diamonds, it's really just not a spot where people raise 9 out type hands because it just totally totally sucks when you get shoved on there. imo you're much better off taking a hand that can't profitably call again (something w/ fewer outs and no real SD value), like JTo if you want to have more bluffs in your range there.

@james- not sure if u meant "if the board were different, A9/ATdd would make sense," but the Ad is on the board in this hand, so A9/ATdd are not possible fwiw

The A5o hand where flop checks through, you lead turn and board runs out A63ss95. You didn't mention the option to overbet at all here and it's something I'd be tempted to do. I'm not a HUNL expert, but I feel like with our bluffs, attacking a weak range in these spots might be good. And w/ our value hands it also seems like it could be good vs people that will feel compelled to make "top of their range calls." Could you talk at all about pros/cons of overbetting here?

great vid as usual phil. have a question/comment about the 54ss hand.

im assuming you're betting any Ax that you get to the river with (Ad2s,As8d etc), so what is your plan with those hands when facing the river c/r? since i assume he's not c/ring two pair there, it seems like any Ax w/ a diamond is a better hand to bluff catch with than black 54 (just to be clear, im not saying we should fold 54ss here). so i guess my bigger question is is this just a spot where you're very comfortable having a pretty wide bet/call range because you expect him to be c/ring flop so often w/ a FD? because since he's defending a minraise pre, he's got all the T5dd, J4dd, 95dd etc, which obv adds up to a lot of combos. but i guess if you're able to discount them a ton given flop action, then bet/calling a wide range makes sense.