cervicalmucus

Why are you betting so small on the river?

As played I'd fold river.

Villain is repping AT-AKdd (if he's as tight as you say) and sets. I probably would've found a fold on the turn or river. It just seems suicidal on his part... but congrats on calling down.

Getting over 3:1 on a call, I'm pretty sure I'm calling here with some suited aces (say A2-A5), suited connectors, most pairs, and maybe some suited one gappers.

Your question is a bit too vague without reads/stats on the villains...

I like the preflop 3b, but don't like the flop cbet.

I meant preflop!

Depends on his play, not his stack size. If he's the tightest guy in the world, playing 2/2/2. over 5k hands, then it's a fold. If he's capable of squeezing an UTG open + call OOP semi-lightly (like 66+), then your play is probably fine. What do you think his range is?

My issue here is that if the villain is positionally aware (are they at 5NL?) then your flop 3b might not be so good. After all, he is ch/raising your UTG cbet, which looks fairly strong. He could have a big draw, but I think that might be discounted when you 3b and he just flats. If he ch/r you, why wouldn't he just shove all in when you give him the chance to? It feels trappy.

Standard. Don't be results oriented. Do you think he has some Q's in his range that he'd play like this? I think so.

Re-iso pre. Your hand plays better all in effectively vs 1 shortstacker's squeezing range.

Just out of curiosity, why didn't you 3bet this preflop? Not saying you should/shouldn't, but I'm curious to hear your reasoning.

An analysis/leakfinder video of me 12-16 tabling 6max and FR 50NL with many pauses and commentary from both of us, so I can explain my line of thinking and you offering corrections/alternate views.

Ok, so then his 4b'ing range is JJ-AA, so when you ch/shove flop you're just praying he has JJ?

I don't get how you can say that his villain has been so passive against you and not understand what his sudden aggression means.

Your logic is off. You claimed that you didn't raise (5b) preflop because it allowed him to fold out weaker hands and call with better hands, but then you proceeded to go against that line of thinking on one of the worst flops you could have gotten.

Don't get married to hands. If you're going to 3b KK preflop for value, you should probably be able to fold it when you're "...probably behind his 4betting range here a lot of the time."

You're thinking about these situations incorrectly, as the others have pointed out.

I think you're just risking way too much preflop, especially with the blinds left to act. I mean, is this guy really not folding to 3b at all? BvB this might be better (if you're sure he'll call with dominated hands). I think a raise to $11-12 would be more acceptable here.

I don't mind the preflop flat.

I think when he ch/c flop his range consists of weakish Tx, 9x, 88. In spots like these I tend to follow through on turns to set up river shoves on the flush card. In villain's spot, say he has 88 or JT, and decided to ch/c flop. When you bet the turn to set up a river shove, it puts a lot of pressure on him.

As played I'd just give up on river most of the time or overbet pot.

Minraising the BTN is profitable, but you have to understand the reasons why (think: which opponents are in the blinds).

Think of it this way: if you know the SB is a fish (which his stats indicate to be true) and will call any sized raise preflop OOP, you should be adjusting by raising to as much as you can get away with pre with your strong hands (ignoring BB for a moment). If the guy plays fit-or-fold postflop, you can raise ATC to that same amount and take it away on the flop.

As played, bet more on the turn... but understand WHY we should bet more. What is our opponent's most likely range?

Agree with thedoors. If you had a hand like 67 or a boat, you'd bet the turn to set up the river shove. You're only repping 77, and it just might work against a hand-reading opponent... but you said the SB is a calling station fish.

Betting flop (with virtually no equity) was probably your biggest mistake here.

You most likely have the BTN crushed. I think shoving all in gives your hand away (it looks sooo strong) so he'll be able to find a fold here with overpairs.