cdubdiddly

Based on a similar flop sim for SB 3b v BTN open, TT5r, this is a 100% bet mixing between 1/3 and 2/3 sizing 40/60. JJ4r prefers smaller sizing ~70/30 (2% check). In general you can bet more frequently on rainbow boards. Agree that multiple street barrel is probably good if V is floating a lot of BD+over(s)

(For future reference it's good to include sample size with your preflop stats...74/43 could literally only be n=19 hands so you can't put too much weight into it, other than he's a fun player)

Fold pre instead of open was also my first thought.
Flop is good.
Turn...V is not folding an OP for a minraise on the turn (which is probably correct even though he can't spell GTO), so putting his OPs in a shitty spot is not part of the gameplan OTF.

As this hand plays out I think you are better off just XC XC XC vs this profile, river feels a little uncomfortable, but you're getting a good price. That was nice of him to match your last 40BB with Ahigh+5high FD but actually this SD illustrates even more why you don't want to XR turn. Plenty of fun players are capable of double barreling a junk hand like that but also capable to realize it's time to fold vs your line and only call you with TT+, QX, AXss/cc, KJss/cc, KTss/cc, so on average this semi-bluff would be shutting out villains bluffs and keeping in his best hands, losing yourself money. This is what timeslot meant by don't bank on it again.

Semi-bluff turn because you botched it pre is just compounding mistakes and punting. I'm not saying I've never done it before but it's just important for you to catch yourself doing this, give pause, and reevaluate each street as best as you can. Play less tables for sure. Maybe don't play zoom while you're learning? It will help you to be a thinking, winning player as you keep moving up the stakes!

Thank you for clarifying--from the OP it sounds like you're 3barreling as a bluff with the won't fold comment and he's calling 2 pair+ on 3-4 flush/straight boards and ch/c ch/c gutshots when you actually wanted folds not calls...I think it goes back to how bad is your B-,C-game as others have asked and improving that will go a long way.

I would still maintain to tighten up, at least for a short period. It will help you reset and build your read, seeing what else he shows down vs others, seeing his value lines, seeing his bluff lines for free. It's risk/reward opening up vs the fish and it can spiral out of control unnecessarily if you lose a few small-medium pots in short period. I know it's all about maximizing EV, but there is a mental aspect, and sacrificing a little EV with higher chance of playing solid is going to effectively maximize EV in reality.

3 barreling people who can't fold is not a good exploit and there's no balance with these people. Probably better to tighten up as regs will re-exploit your widening by widening their 3b which is a PIA and you will become more value you heavy vs the fish in the process, elevating your B-, C-game in the process.

Nice turn

Here is a short, effective video on FE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6QDTCIodjaI

I gave inputs of 110, 0, 160, and 8% in this calculator: https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/ and assuming no further action (i.e. not taking into account you improving and villain ch/f weak Ax on river, you improving and losing to a set, better two pair, etc.) you need it to work 33% of the time on the turn given your equity vs his turn continuing range. From the video, if his turn continuing range is the 35 combos you listed out you would need him to XC, XF an additional 35*33%, ~12 combos to breakeven. Of course, this is only as good as your estimate of his flop continuing range and preflop calling range (e.g. if he has more AXo combos, he needs more XC, XF hands).

Agree it's hard for V to get here on double FD run out with sets. Take a note that he's capable of slowplaying a set to the river on this type of board and don't feel too bad about it. Even if you lose a stack it's pretty thin. Also, FWIW you have the best suit combo blocking hands w/o FDs and unblocking hands with FDs.

https://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/other/variance/

3500 hands and showing a profit in your worst week? 25k breakeven stretches are nothing. Focus on what you can control, like playing your best, putting in work away from the tables, and keep at it.

I would call and expect to be up against FD+2overs, misplayed OP enough of the time. 22 shouldn't be in EP's range, but it might be. Hard to say with n=30 hands. You're blocking the most likely sets. So, that's 3 to 5 combos of sets. I gave him 25% of the combos of JJ+, AXdd, 88, 77, 22, T9dd, JTdd} and you are 54/46 favorite. If you remove overpair combos and FDs without 2 overs you are 43/57 dog {22, 77, 88, A2dd, A9dd+, T9dd, JTdd}...getting 2:1 on the call

Did MP fold?

Edit: original Flopzilla equities were off but still looks like a call.

darren2607
I think 27/20 is too loose. Not that you can't win like this but you're going to give an extra 1.5-2BB/100 to rake with that VPIP compared to playing more TAG 22/17. It's also easier to add more tables when you're more selective pre :)

I would interpret having high WTSD and W$SD as not value betting enough, not that you are not bluffing enough as stated in the OP.

Still, worry about hand reading instead and don't read into W$WSF and fold to CB. Don't bet just to take down more pots or call more CBs just to improve your numbers. I mean I'm sure there are some areas where you can start taking pots w/o SD, but just keep putting in volume, posting trouble spots and the experience will take over.

+1 for low fold to 3b because small stakes population has more people doing silly things like clicking it back as a 3b.

A9 and worse, although I'm doing a lot of flop checking with them right now.

I think this kind of Villain is pretty inelastic within a pot size bet with a lot of his range, so maybe that was a little bit of an exploit. Though, I agree it is important not to go crazy on monotone flops, not pushing as much equity. I was between 2/3PSB on flop and ch/b.

I 3X'd and he just called with KTdd. I need to hone in more on when passive players take these actions, i.e. the alarm bells. Basically, I didn't think he would semi-bluff the turn as a passive player (probably not a fair assumption in hindsight) so I put a lot more pair hands in his range given turn action and tried to squeeze out a crying call on the river from worse. This particular player profile would likely lay down worse, so it's not a play here.

Yes I would have to fold if he clicks it back...is this a spot where I ask myself that question and the answer is yes, I should be more inclined to call? Is that what you're getting at?

I do struggle with vbetting too thinly--sometimes it's great, other times, not so much. So is this a ch/c T, ch/f R for you?

(That fold to CB is just for flop))
I like your reasoning bet/fold turn & river smaller, keeping in worse hands and not inflating the pot too much when he makes a flush. I get tempted in the moment to just pump money in vs weaker AX sometimes vs recs and could probably make more money with smaller bets until I have a better read they are sticky with one pair hands/inelastic.

Using HM3, not sure about HM2. Keep logging hands, you can't fix it all at once. It's good that you're thinking about it though.

RFI by position

I'm just going to brainstorm a little because there's not enough info and it's a tough question regardless.

What is your rake in bb/100 from the BB??
My rake is 10.3BB/100 playing some 50NL & 200NL, mostly 100NL, but only 7.8BB/100 overall. So, one thought is if the rake is something even more egregious you might be better off moving up now.

I'm only hemorrhaging -26.5BB/100 from BB thru 27k hands from the BB...I'm looking at my big winners from the BB and it's mostly people spewing money to me when I have AA, AK, KK, or a set. I'm pretty nitty from the BB except BB vs SB, running 23/10/8 3b. I don't think you want to play too many marginal hands multiway even though you are getting pot odds. There's a lot of reverse implied odds scenarios and it's hard to realize your equity OOP. 3betting with a range advantage and picking up rake-free pots pre-flop every once in a while will help, so without knowing your style, maybe never slow play preflop? Also, don't be afraid to check call sometimes with made hands...sometimes you need to give villain a chance to spew because they would otherwise just fold to aggression. It feels really uncomfortable some times but you get used to it.

28% WTSD%, 50% W$SD&, 34% W$WSF at the BB...idk if that's good, but maybe if you have even lower W$WSF from BB you're better off tightening up and getting a little more aggro? You could also look at some action filters like RiverActionBetCall, RiverActionCheckCall=true to see if maybe you're making too many marginal calls where you're better off folding?

Hope this helps,
cdub

Easy call.
88 to win 214 = 41%
You're 59/41 favorite vs TT+, AhKh, 99, 77 and that's extreme worst case vs 95/34.

Yeah definitely no easy system to lock down and play on autopilot. It requires study and focus on your opponents.

Another idea I will throw out is occasionally mix in a raise or check raise with bottom or 2nd pair+BDFD or both backdoor draws. Hands that have some equity when called that block some nutted flop hands (sets).

One more that comes up less often is bluffing with AsXo on 3 flush, non-paired boards (any street) because you have the blocker to the nuts.

Be careful with your frequencies and who you're doing it against. You don't want to bluff stations you want to bluff people capable of folding!

I would 2nd the not value betting thinly.
This is not a stat I've looked into but I know I like to v-bet thin and I am running 59%/44%/58% flop, turn, river c-bet% which would suggest I am more likely to triple-barrel than double-barrel. This is a combination of v-betting thinly and finding good bluffs (& give-ups!).

Some other observations.
I see your BTN VPIP and PFR running very closely together. I could be wrong but there might be a few hands+situations you want to play for calls from the BTN at least some of the time. For example AXs and low pockets with fish in the blinds or calling opens from players with low PFR. I'm running 34/30/8.1 for +38bb/100 from the BTN, finding calls and sometimes even overlimps at especially soft tables.

Also your BTN and CO cbet% are high so you're probably unbalanced in a lot of spots where you don't want to play for stacks.

Your turn bet is on the high side, 2/3 PSB could fold out 44,66,77, A4,A3 that peeled flop.

Given the pot odds, we need to be good > 30%. With 9 sets he has to have at least 4 bluffs to make this +EV.

I don't know how many hands bluff turn for a minraise. The problem is if villain taking this weird line with the potential bluff combos above only 25% of the time it's 13x.25 = 3.33 effective combos and calling is -EV. It's a really weird bluff line that produces very little FE, so I think bluffs need to be discounted. On the flip side, he could value own himself with A3, A4 if he thinks you have a king.

I find that this is a nutted line from a rec that minraises turns strong and vbets relatively small on river because they really want to get paid and they want showdown their monster.

Regs don't click it back on the turn very often unless maybe you're cbetting too much.

Weird spot, probably somewhere between a fold and a sighing call.

I think this winds up as a pretty close spot but 1/3PSB, 1/2PSB turn could be EV > 0.

I don't think villain is going to have too many offsuit Qs here and with the AQ, KQ blocker there aren't many Qs left. Villian's range is weighted toward pocket pairs 55-TT given preflop action. You can also discount TT because it 3bets sometimes.

Spades aren't great for your hand improving obviously but they do unblock all 3 BDFDs on a rainbow flop that would peel for a 1/3 cbet that would then have an easy fold on most turns. 2s-5s, 9s, would be great cards to double barrel as a bluff and 9d,9c, 5c, 5d to a lesser extent because they remove a few sets but create a few FDs. Another key assumption is 66-TT all peel flop for 1/3 PSB. The bet would apply pressure to all the non set medium pairs and getting folds from naked gutshots & overcards. Slightly under half pot bet on turn would threaten a river shove and should get the job done vs the BDFDs that did not improve except JTs. I only gave Villain AQo for offsuit queens. There's about 20 top pair or better plus 4 OESD, and 60 combos total {AQo, QTs+, KJs+, ATs+, A5s, 55-TT} that could get to the turn this way. 31/67 if you give him KQo, however that could also put KJo in his range which would also peel flop fold turn a lot. I would probably give up river but jamming brick rivers would look super strong and would fold 4 JTs that might bluff if checked to on river, might get a fold from TT, maybe even QTs, QJ, which altogether is about half of his get to the river range.

I think mix in checks is good but I also think in this spot you want to block villain's suited broadway combos with hearts because they have a lot of equity vs your hand. I haven't solved for this but I ran 40% open * (1-55%) for ~18% range to include all pockets, all suited aces, suited broadway, ATo, KJo+. I have your stack as 9.16 remaining and the pot odds as 9.16 / (9.16 + 4.23 + 9.16) = 40.6%.
Continues are AhXo, A9, K9, J9, 76, 77,66, all hands w/ 2 hearts or 2 diamonds, JTs. I think villains natural bluffs are AhXx that is not AhKo (AhTo+), KdTd, QdJd, QdTd, JTs (no hearts), 77, 66 maybe sometimes but they would probably just take showdown. He has all AXh except probably AKhh at less frequency which 4bets pre, all suited hearts broadways, A3s, maybe 76s, 43s at a low frequency (I gave him 50% combos of 76s). Sticking with your read that it's not a boat you're 61/39 vs that range but as soon as you take out diamond bluffs, JTs non-hearts out and he starts checking down his AhXo, it's narrowly -EV (38/62 vs range). The more he checks down ace high without the flush with the more disastrous calling is. If he's ch/b Axdd but bluffing non-A high XXdd pure it's a clear call (52/48 vs range). My read is population underbluffs so I probably cry and fold or cry and call in the moment. I am more inclined to call this vs a rec who is capable of showing up with 22, ripping A9 or A8 for no good reason than a reg, etc. Usually recs are not playing with a full stack and so you are getting better odds at this point is another small consideration.

The heart blocker is significant and also the higher your PP the better your blocker effect vs his 3b call and the more this is a call. (e.g. AhA has 57% vs {ch/dn A highs, jam non A-high diamonds, 50% 77, 66, 76, flush} and AA no heart only has 45%!} ThTx vs the same range has 28% equity. TT no heart has 18% equity!

Hey, thanks, great question and follow ups. I'm not an expert but this is a great thought exercise.

The remaining 2/3 is all other possible outcomes, so V 4bet or V2 cold 4b, hero folds and V 4bet/fold vs hero 5b are a small percentage of the remaining 2/3 without rake.

The ranges for flat vs 3b have some overlap but there are some that are exclusive to the call and 3b (QQ+, AK pure) bucket. I use RFI% by position, fold to 3b%, and who is in the BB to help inform call/fold/3b with non premium hands.

Yes, a 3b pot flop has higher rake than a SRP.
To continue to build your deep foundational understanding (wisdom ;) for flat vs 3b in rake environments I think you need to look deeper and think about all possible outcomes. WtSD & W$WSF sliced by SRP Hero calls vs Hero 3bets might be good indicators without going too deep. But, for example, I can get to the flop 97% of the time for a call from the BTN (trying to account for some blind squeeze frequency) in a single raised pot. Of those times I have all these various outcomes where I variably contribute to the rake win or lose. Compare this to the hero 3bet pot tree where you win more and exceed the rake cap more on average.

Another way to think about it is, any marginally +EV postflop call/raise without reads becomes -EV in a high rake environment. As others have stated, the frequency of those decisions is a lot higher multiway where ranges are wide compared to 3b pots where ranges are better defined.

You can get perspective by looking at categories of hands that you might play close to pure call (e.g. middle SCs, weaker suited broadways, weak suited aces, low pockets). If you find some marginal winners over a decent sample or even losers put them in the 3b or fold bucket.

Not to stray away from rake but a good thought exercise would be how do the middling hands above results compare to prospect of taking down the pot~1/3 of the time, cbetting range on a lot of boards for 1/3 pot and taking down the pot a significant portion of the time, playing the rest of the hand IP with initiative. Which collective outcome beats the rake more?