cazzzwell

That range I had suggested is a little loose, so if you shave the AJ combos off then naturally I think AQ is the only true bluff you'll have left in your range.

This could be wrong but I think there are some videos in the bluffing section in the learning paths which should explain if I am. For an opponent to be indifferent to calling on the river, for a pot sized bet you should have 1 bluff for every 2 value combos. If we use the 18 combos of non club AJ and AQ, and value bet the combos I mentioned above, you would have 18 bluffs : 28 value bets, so over the 1:2 ratio, so to keep your opponent indifferent to calling you should make a greater than pot sized bet. Having said this I think using all 18 combos would be overbluffing.

The general idea is that the more you're bluffing, the worse price you should offer villain, so that he's less incentivised to call.

Assuming you're playing 3bet or fold from the SB and have made a range bet on the flop, you'd reach the turn with something like: 99+, AJo+, KQo, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, JTs.

Out of these I think the only hands you'd reach the river with which are still bluffs are AJ and AQ. The rest of the hands are either value bets or have too much SDV to bluff with. I think AJ and AQ function fairly well as bluffs, with AQ blocking QJs, AK (which may be 4bet by villain sometimes) and KQ. You could choose to bluff any of the combos without a club so you unblock the BDFD. It's hard to block the sets as any combos you have which would block them would probably have too much SDV to bluff with.

This would be 18 combos, and assuming you're value betting JQs (4), TT (3), KK (3), AA (6) and AK (12), should remain fairly balanced, although some combos of AJ could be shaved off and you'd need to size up a little.

One problem is that both AJ and AQ block combos he would get to the river with but now give up with - JTs, QTs and ATs, although he may not flat some of these in the first place vs the 3bet, and there are very few combos of these so I don't think it matters

This is 100% a cooler. As you said the only hand which beats you is AQ which you hold a blocker to. He could play TT JJ KK or AA and some bluffs like AhXh this way.

I see you've said that this isn't in your 3 bet range. Vs the 4x open i think this is definitely a fold or 3bet considering rake, and probably even be a fold in a no rake environment. The amount of times you get squeezed in these spots decreases the EV of a flat here a lot. This is a good 3bet in a polarised strategy. This is probably only a call vs an open raise of 2.5x or less.

OTF i think sizing is good as villains check is not necessarily capping, and you can expect to be x/r'd at a high frequency.

I'm not sure about the turn overbet. Its definitely a flop where villain should be check raising often, so given the fact he check called caps his range, although maybe not on the K turn. Villain can have the nuts a lot more often as you'll be 3betting AQ at a high frequency pre flop.

I don't like the river lead without reads that villain is very passive. I think that the 5d is a lot better for his range than yours. He will be betting a lot more BDFD's OTF than you are floating OOP. He'll also be barrelling a lot of 8x OTT which you would check raise sometimes, so the 5 also doesn't help your range too much.

As for the river fold, could he be doing the same with 9x or 8x? I'd say no unless villain is a massive whale. Fold is correct imo