bumblebtuna

We're shoving because i expect to recieve an undefined amount of folds from both players while still having decent equity when called. There's dead money in the pot because the maniac coldcalled the cold4bet, presumably with a wide range. Assuming we have 29% equity when called by one player the indifference point would be roughly 40% folds.

Honestly i think 4bet from BTN is really strong here. Maybe they are adjusting, but you'd need a fair bit of evidence and a good idea on range to justify this shove. I think you're probably owned equity wise. 3Bet is totally fine, but the BTN 4betting wasnt part of that plan so just let it go and move on

It doesnt really sound like theres much of a plan to this hand. Why are we 3betting? Why are we shoving? Why do you think theres dead money in the pot?

river value bet good

What is opponents calling range on the river? Our hand is pretty face up this point right, maybe AQ/AJ, some weak flushes. Here we are only getting value from AQ, some QQ imo. Is that enough to make this river bet, seems super close. That said I guess opp isn't going to play anything this way that beats our hand so perhaps there is no harm in the bet?

I made a mistake reading this, didnt realize its a 3bet hand sorry! Probably checking back the turn here, as you pointed out SPR is awkward.

Pre: Is good, calling IP with this much equity is good, deciding to 4bet depends on how aggro you BTN is.

Flop: Is a little weak from V. You could consider raising them right here. There are a lot of hands you can continue to fire a bluff on (assuming V is good enough to fold).

Turn: Td is a huge scare card, and it actually improves you if he calls. You should be betting 50-75% on turn, and fire the river too.

As played. I would just check river back and give this up. Turn was played too weakly imo, to rep on the river, but maybe im wrong, depends on how V plays

Thanks, but more interested in post-flop. I know pre was bad, but this is the situation i find myself anyway...

Flop is mostly a call with AA and mostly a 3bet with QQ.

Could you explain this?

Agree with Jeff for MP there isn't much they can have OTR as a bluff.

I think you should have bet the flop, tons of value to be had there in 3 way pot

It looks like a good spot to bluff, we are quite balanced here.

I would just be careful doing this against an unknown, when getting stacks in as a bluff I'd like to have some level of confidence villain will fold KQ/KJ

If Villain has something like the below on the river:

AK, KQ, KJ, 77, 66, 44 = 39 hands
QQ-TT, AhQh-AhTh, QhJh, JhTh = 20 hands

Based on what you shoved, we need villain to fold roughly around 45% of the time. If he isn't folding KQ/KJ at all then villain is only folding 34% of his hands on the river, which means it isn't profitable. If he'll fold KJ the it bumps you up to 49% (just passing breakeven). If you throw KQ into folding range here you get 69%. So my point is vs an unknown this probably isn't the best spot to pull a bluff, you need at the very least some handle on the player type, nit, lag, tag, fish, bad agro, to even have the slightest guess at what villain will fold there.

Yeh as i was writing about "Looking like AA-QQ" I was thinking to a decent hand reader that probably would make sense. Good discussion!

Interesting thoughts, I pretty much agree with everything you said. b/c is probably the line I should have taken.

The reason I raised was because of a number of things:
1. my cbet was pretty polarized, villain probably thinks i betting all my broadways as a bluff and all over pairs for value with some sets.
2. Based on point 1 I thought villain probably thinks this is a good board to raise as a bluff, as I'm weighted more towards air here.
3. By raising me, villain is very unbalanced/polarized, probably has sets, QQ and JJ, and air, and I think he has more air here than made hands.
4. By re-raising I can look like AA-QQ and can probably get him to fold JJ as well as better as all of their better air hands. If called then I have good equity.
5. Villains shoving range is a very small portion of his range, which makes the times I get shoved against vs the times he folds when I re-raise profitable.

However, I'm thinking this is 2nl and all of that probably won't be valid, and calling would have been that safer option, as villain could just do something very dumb.

I think flop is fine, large protion of villains range missed this flop, betting here would fold out a large portion of his range that is worse than mine, and nothing better than me is folding here. x/c'ing gives villain the opportunity to bluff his missed hands, when I have the "nut nothing".

Not sure I like x/c, lead river as a line. It's a very polarized move and based on pot size on the river and stacks behind I'm not sure I could get better to fold...

Thanks Jeff! It's probably overplayed, the thing is I couldn't see villain shoving on me all that often here (maybe 5%). Also like you said, villain potting flop and the strong turn bet made me think he wasn't bluffing, so the raise was for value, maybe 99/TT fold to my raise, but I think most his range will call turn. Do you think it's unlikely that JJ/QQ, AQ, AJ will call my turn raise? If so then it was defo overplayed...having said that, maybe those hands don't even bet turn...

pf would it be a good spot to 4bet?

How do you think villain would react to your 4bet? Is it likely to be a 5bet/fold line or is he more likely to flat your 4 bet?

How do we know they will call the 4 bet? Players at these stakes tend to play 5bet or fold. We can't call a 5 bet so 4 betting seems like a waste of a hand here and -ev.

If we have evidence he will flat a 4bet with worse then I think it's worth it, but I dont think that should be our normal line by default.

Villain shoves with 66, 55, JJ, 7h8h, I don't see him bluffing all in with air to your triple barrel. This is a fold imo.

Preflop - BB called instead of trying to isolate UTG limp
Flop - Min-raise
Turn - villain checks back after re-raising flop
These three things smell like a weak player.

should i 3 bet flop when he min raise?

Against an unknown, no - we have a good hand, but don't know what the min raise means and re-raising means we may have to fold to further flop action.

as played, do you think my bet is good on the river?

x/c on the river if the price is right. Based on the fact you have 0 hands on them and its a real fishy line I'd personally want to get to showdown and get more information.

If I find out the min-raise with air next time i see it and i have air I'll re-raise and see how they react, etc.

I'm not convinced the turn is great spot to raise. Your range is pretty polarized once you raise and it's not a great turn card to pull a bluff on, which basically makes your range only full of made hands.

I don't think an 18/14 with Jx calls to x/r based on above reasoning.Relatively speaking your hand isn't very strong on the turn either. I prefer controlling the pot and calling turn.

I agree with fold pre-flop.

I like the flop raise, this flop hits his range nicely and you'll get a lot calls here from worse, but if the board gets more co-ordinated on the turn i'd be more cautious going forward

Turn as played, I'm done - if someone bets into me after I x/r them on a card that improves their range, without any further info, I'm putting them on a strong hands AQ or KJ here.

I dont think you can cc flop, Jx/Qx/TT would all check behind. I only see T9 hearts making the river for a bluff maybe...

9 completes a J9s straight, but when I put that I had forgotten our position, and arguably to an average hand reader J9s isn't in our range. So your right probably won't work often enough.

Turn bet is ok, but we have to be prepared to bluff river on the right cards any Q/J/9, because the 8 on the turn wont really give us any fold equity. It looks like you know this anyway :-)

I think river is a good bet!
J9s/QTs/55/TT/88/89s/87s = 17 combos calling
77/99/JJ/ ATs/KTs/JTs/T9s = 30 combos folding

Pretty much 67s or 98s raising the river is too thin

Fold pre.

Feels like there is almost no air in his range to fold out and I don't see AA/KK/QQ/AQ folding this turn, and we have little equity when called, I'd say spew.

Probably bet this flop against most passive fish. Without knowing how bad he is its hard to say if you can thinly value bet, if its your first time with villain, there is no harm in putting 1/3 pot in to find out.