buddhadan's avatar

buddhadan

4 points

I think taking a break is not a solution to the problem. It works well as a palliative like painkillers, but the backbone of "not-optimal mindset" is not changed. 

June 2, 2014 | 1:55 p.m.

Some additional thoughts from me:

PREFLOP CALLING
#1 How often do I dominate his hand
#2 Will I be able to outplay my opponent effectively enough? 
- how good is my hand for floating, x/r flop light etc.
#3 How well do I know my opponents tendencies? Do I know how to exploit them? 

TIP
To find out how often (approximately) your hand dominates hands from your opponents range you can use (FOR FREE!) ProPokerTools Poker Query Language. 
1. Go to: http://www.propokertools.com/pql 
2. Use following query:

select count(equity(hand1, flop) > 0.5) as decent_equity from game="holdem", hand1="YOUR HAND HERE", range1="OPPONENT'S RANGE HERE"

Example:

select count(equity(hand1, flop) > 0.5) as decent_equity from game="holdem", hand1="TT", range1="22+, Ax2x+, Kx6x, Qx8x, Jx8x, Tx7x, 9x7x, 8x6x, 7x6x, 6x5x, Ay9x, KyTx, QyTx, JyTx"

3. The output will tell you how often you flop more than 50% equity against given range


RAISING PREFLOP
#1 Will he 3bet/5bet light with good frequencies?
#2 Will he dominate your hand often enough to make your raise unprofitable?
- for example to make shoving 100% from button unprofitable, BB needs to call just with premium hands and fold all the rest
- as stack sizes go up domination becomes less important (because implied odds go up)

#3 Will he be making post-flop play difficault for you?

expand

June 2, 2014 | 1:44 p.m.

pookerazor

May 1, 2014 | 7:50 a.m.

OK, first –
preflop: Villain's CO calling range after BB 3bet:



all pairs
22-JJ
75% of QQ (i assume 25% of time he raises it)

10% of AA (i assume he raises AA 90% of time)
some suited connectors and 1-gappers

best offsuit broadways – AQo, AJo, Kqo

95% of some suited aces – AQs, AJs, ATs, A9s

67% of smaller suited aces – A8s – A2s

+ suited broadways
with some small random raising frequencies.


This is how it looks like:


Now let's look at Villain's flop ranges (I could consider only calling range but for
education purposes, let's do all of them):
Folding: 22-55, A2s-A5s, AJo – Aqo (he could float with them, but there are better
hands for that in his range), AsJs, AsQs, As7s, As8s

Raising: some percentage of sets – 66, 99, TT + two pairs T9 + QQ + random bluffs


Calling – all the rest (JJ, 99-77, AA:0.1, QQ:0.37, TT:0.6, 66:0.5, AcQc:0.95,
AdQd:0.95, AhQh:0.95, AcJc:0.95, AdJd:0.95, AhJh:0.95, ATs:0.95,
A9s:0.67, Ac8c:0.67, Ad8d:0.67, Ah8h:0.67, Ac7c:0.66, Ad7d:0.66,
Ah7h:0.66, A6s:0.67, KQs:0.95, KQo:0.9, KJs:0.8, KTs:0.7, K9s:0.95,
QTs, QJs:0.99, JTs, J9s:0.99, T8s, T9s:0.78, 97s+, 86s, 87s:0.99,
76s:0.99, 65s:0.99)


Now the turn:

Fold: 88-77, KQo, KcQc, KhQh, KsQs, KcJc, KhJh, KsJs, Kc9c,
Kh9h, Ks9s, Jc9c, Jh9h, Js9s, 6c5c, 6h5h, 6s5s

Blue means all combinations except flushdraws:


shove: TT, 99:0.9,
66:0.3, AcQc:0.18, AhQh:0.18, AcJc:0.18, AhJh:0.18, AcTc:0.33,
AsTs:0.52, Ac9c:0.22, As9s:0.38, Ac7c:0.13, Ah7h:0.13, Ah6h:0.12,
As6s:0.24, KcTc:0.23, KhTh:0.23, KsTs:0.23, QcTc:0.24, QhTh:0.24,
QsTs:0.24, JcTc:0.24, JhTh:0.24, JsTs:0.24, Tc9c:0.11, Ts9s:0.12,
8c7c:0.67, 8h7h:0.67, 8s7s:0.67


and he calls all the
rest. His final range at the river is:  

JJ, AA:0.1, QQ:0.37,
99:0.1, 66:0.35, AcQc:0.78, AdQd:0.95, AhQh:0.78, AcJc:0.78,
AdJd:0.95, AhJh:0.78, AcTc:0.73, AdTd:0.95, AhTh:0.95, AsTs:0.46,
Ac9c:0.59, Ad9d:0.67, Ah9h:0.67, As9s:0.54, Ac8c:0.67, Ad8d:0.67,
Ah8h:0.67, Ac7c:0.57, Ad7d:0.66, Ah7h:0.57, Ac6c:0.67, Ad6d:0.67,
Ah6h:0.59, As6s:0.49, KdQd:0.95, KdJd:0.8, KcTc:0.54, KdTd:0.7,
KhTh:0.54, KsTs:0.54, Kd9d:0.95, QTs, QJs:0.99, QcTc:0.76, QhTh:0.76,
QsTs:0.76, JTs, JcTc:0.76, JhTh:0.76, JsTs:0.76, Jd9d:0.99, T8s,
Tc9c:0.77, Td9d:0.78, Th9h:0.78, Ts9s:0.77, 97s+, 86s, 8c7c:0.42,
8d7d:0.99, 8h7h:0.42, 8s7s:0.42, 76s:0.99, 6d5d:0.99



OK, now the actual decision.

Possible lines:

1) shove

2) check-call

3) check-fold

assuming that no one will use betsizings other than all-in (so I exclude bet-fold and bet-call lines for both players).

   

SHOVE:

if he calls with set+ than (final stack) EV = 1020.3$

if he calls with set+ and AQ than EV = 968.15$


Check-fold or check-call?

Version a)

if he checks-back 666, two pair, and all Aces
(27.84%) and goes all-in with the rest of his hands (72.16%) than EV
of calling his shove (valuerange: 999+, bluff range: Qx-)
= 1266.4$ while EV of folding =
570$
.

 Version b)


if he checks-back 66, two pair, all aces, all Q and JJ(34.74%) and
goes all-in with rest of his range (65.26%) than EV of calling =
1187.7$ while EV of folding = 570$.






SO WE SHOULD X/C RATHER THAN X/F


CHECK CALL:

Version a) EV = 0.2784 * 891.62 + 0.7216 * 1266.4 = 248.2270 +
913.8342 = 1162.06124$

Version b) EV = 0.3474 * 1000.6 + 0.6526 * 1187.7 = 347.6084 +
775.0930 = 1122.70142$


So check-call is more profitable as we allow him to bluff

with hands he would fold to our shove while all the rest is the same.


expand

April 25, 2014 | 12:40 p.m.

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