bogglor

100% agree on the Donkr article series.  Better than any book you'll read.

I can't see ever folding it but I think it's actually a closer spot than it appears.  Would love for one of those math wizards to chime in here with a 50 line post :)

The hand you're specifically afraid of here is AA with the NFD because you block 99 and you can fairly discount hands that have 66 and 44 as hands that he'd 3 bet preflop.  You're roughly a 70/30 dog to that hand specifically.  His line does look super strong, you're right.  As far as a range goes, if you include all the middle rundowns in a range of hands that might 3 bet prefop and then c/r a flop like this, you're about 59/41.  Still, in looking at this board and looking at your hand it's hard to conceive of you having both the worst made hand and the worst draw so I wouldn't fault you at all for just stacking here.  It's really going to depend if this villain is ever happy to get it in with something a little closer, a hand like AA78.

In the heat of battle at 100bb deep or less, I think I tend to just stack here because our hand looks so good, but in looking at the action closely I'm not really sure. 

I think the OOP paired flops deep are some of the toughest spots to play well when middle cards (7-T) hit. As you said, it's hard to really rep them well by betting your entire range and you open yourself up to getting played back at by any player (both good and bad/spewy).  It's easy to cbet/stab the J-A paired flops as the aggressor and either comfortably cbet or c/c the 2-6 flops.  I also tend to follow Ted's logic and lean toward c/c because it's less risky and you have a good shot of winning with a delayed cbet.  You keep your range somewhat wider if your default is c/c, since betting the flop, getting called and then checking the turn really caps your range and lets an aggressive player just tee off on you.

As far as having a rebluffing range, it's obviously only something you can really have with some history.  Most players who are stabby / make small bluff raises in this spot leak information in some way, either through their timing tells or most often their sizing.  In this spot with under 300 hands facing a minraise, you stand a pretty good chance of getting 200+ BB in really bad if you decide to rebluff/go with it because you decide you're committed and he is a 74/22 after all, or rebluffing to like 800 and then puke/folding if he shoves.  In this actual hand, until you decode what this player's minraises mean, you're kinda just guessing.

You just told the life story of my EV graph this year, Zzz.

RUN BETTER IMO

I know, the problem that I'm faced with a lot at $100 and below is that the raising ranges of unknowns and regs are heavily made hand biased and often quite strong.  It just feels so weak/exploitable to always be folding to raises in spots like this, but you're probably right about the flop play.  As for the turn, all I can say is that I tend to get... optimistic? in blind on blind play and I think it's costing me money.  :(

I play against a couple LAGs of these stripes where they play a ton of hands preflop, pot bet everything, etc.  They'll pot scare cards, pot any card that mildly improves their hand or gives them another draw, you know the deal.  

I think folding the turn is giving him way too much credit.  Sure he could have 34, but he could also have many other hands with which he'll be happy to bet/call.  At least you don't have to be worried about AA given the preflop action.  You've got a set and a club redraw that either may be good or be blocking his.  I don't like flat calling his turn bet because of the double flush draws - you could easily be bluffed out on the river.  

I think this is a pretty standard shove against a nutball.

I always used to check/jam here with top 2 and the straight blockers but lately I just get shown 88 every time (but I'm running super bad and it's messing with my head lately).  Would love to hear other thoughts, but my standard is to check/jam -- you at least have 8 likely good outs if you're behind.

I prefer checking here but if you're going to bet, it doesn't have to be for pot.  You're just giving him an easy shove with any pair if you pot it.  

Easy flop bet in position.  Don't understand the check here.  

After you've called the turn bet I doubt very much he's betting less than a flush.  I used to hero call here some and it's tempting to do so in a 3 handed game but it's probably a losing play overall against his range.

You basically have this board crushed in every way possible so it's really hard for you to get an extra street of value on the river.  When in that situation, I like to try to earn the money before all the cards are out unless you have a really spewy villain on the river and can really sell the fact that you're legitimately scared of the board pair (ie if he's seen you c/f a similar spot during the session).  

The best opportunity to take advantage of his "non-believer" nature is on the turn, so for that reason I'd lead turn sometimes and hope he raises so you can freeroll.  C/R a little more than 1/2 pot could also be a play to earn extra value.

As played, lead the river.  It's extremely unlikely he holds anything that he'll bluff with after seeing you call the turn and like you said, he doesn't have JJ or 99 ever given the play of the hand.

Lol jonna.  

Yeah, I agree with Tom's points mostly but I'd err towards raising simply because opponent's hands are heavily draw-biased and extremely weak made hand biased on a board such as this.  You stomp the entire range of draws that your opponents can hold and hitting an A probably gives you the best hand as well.  Fearing being 3 bet isn't a good enough reason to not raise this flop with your hand.  

I don't think you can go too wrong by leading - C/R is obviously the "optimal" play if you have opponents who are willing to comply with you and bet.  With 2 passive players left to act in the hand, I'd always err on the side of betting.  With 2 aggressive players, I'd always go for the C/R.  

One of the key things that I think comes from this discussion is the fact that even when you C/R top set and get called and the turn completes a draw, it's OK to just get it in here given stacks.  To continue the evolution of the discussion, at what stack depth it is NOT okay to just shove the money in on any turn card?  Obviously this is just a straight math question but I'll ask it anyway. 

I think too often what happens to me when in this spot is that I'm playing 8 tables, I C/R the flop and get about 40-50% of my stack in, then the turn completes a draw against 2-3 other opponents and a defeatist attitude of "well, I'm cooked" sets in and then I just kind of C/F weakly because it's "safe" and too hard to keep up with the other tables and work out the math in the moment.  

No, it's because when you cut and paste from PPT it gets f'd up on here.

Because you're so ridiculously deep and obviously getting it in on the turn is pretty irresponsible and you have a plan for the river, then yes, it would seem calling is fine.

Interesting river card, hmm. If your read of him is that he's tight and obviously has some respect for you since you're both deepstacked, I think your read of him on the turn is the key, here. It's clear he has at least the straight and a redraw but the question is which (straight or flush)? He's definitely not raising the turn with TT or JJ here. And if you had the nut flush redraw in this spot, he likely knows you'd 3 bet his turn raise.

If you do bluff the river here it's to represent exactly JJ and fold him off of a chop. You can't really rep the backdoor flush given the way you've played the hand. Obviously not knowing the player it's hard to say whether or not he'll fold, but let's assume that he will. What's the best way to make this happen?

I don't think you can get him to fold the nut flush by leading like 1/2 to 2/3 pot. If you do lead, it has to be on the large side. I kind of wish you had more in your stack left, then a check/raise bluff might be a credible line to take.

Still, it's so gross to try and fold out unknowns in this spot. You feel like such a chump when they shrug and call the $2800 with the nut flush, not caring what you're repping. I don't think anyone could fault you for c/f, really.

Against passive players, bet/fold.
Against unknowns, standard regs, sometimes bet, sometimes check and delayed cbet.
Against aggressive or good players, favor checking since they'll realize this board doesn't hit your 3bet range and you're deep enough for them to C/R you fairly liberally.
Against spewtards you might even bet/call if they'd get it in with like an open ender and a 8 hi flush draw. Generally, I like to have any pair here at least but the fact that you have 3 overcards means even one of them might be good enough if you hit.

Either check/calling the turn or leading is fine vs. a zoom unknown. He's probably already clicked the fold button, so It's not going to make a ton of difference really. Any overpair and any straight draw bets this flop. Any 9 + a couple overs bets it, too. Against a reg or a player you have some history with, I prefer c/c turn and c/c virtually any river since many of them will make random stabs since you checked twice and you will get them to bet a lot of hands that they otherwise wouldn't call with. You might risk losing here and there to a random 6 or a backdoor flush occasionally, but them's the breaks.

I think we are ahead here some of the time simply because we have top 2 and block some of the wrap outs that might get it in with us and we have backdoor flush possibilities. I don't ever think we're a *crushing* favorite against a 25/12's get it in range on this flop, but it is what it is.

I wouldn't play the hand in the manner OP played it unless I had some kind of read on what this TAG minraises with.

Here's my thought process step by step:

1) We have top 2 and block the most reasonable sets and made hands a villain can have.
2) The board is wet and draw heavy, so there will be many combos of draws willing to play with us.
3) Our standard c-bet is minraised by a relatively TAG player.
a) He's TAG and knows that this board hits us, and he's telling us it's also hit him.
4) What's a player's hand range given 3a?
a) Hands that have us in bad shape (KK, JJ, 44, Ace of clubs + any club + 2 other broadway cards)
b) Wraps with and without clubs
c) A TINY amount of air or a hand like a J978 with clubs
4) Assuming we have no notes on what this bet means, we can continue by:
a) Assuming we have the best hand and some FE (I doubt it) and 3 bet
b) Flat call the raise and either donk blank turns or C/R depending on what card comes

I prefer to call this raise against this player type and see what happens on the turn.

Damn it, I'm being summoned to a meeting... sorry for this incomplete post, more later.

Poor turn card to raise as he's probably just going to bet/go with it on any OP + FD combo. Flop float is kind of bad because if you've identified his range as you say you have, this is a board he's going to feel safe continuing on and firing again on many turn cards. 2 8 7 looks pretty good for AA / KK of any sort, right? You're reduced to bluffing spades if he checks as your only reasonable option. Bluffing straight cards has pretty low visibility (as you found out).

Heh, it seems that every single time I opt for the "check/shove a safe turn" line at low stakes with a hand like top 2 on wet board, I am *always* sorry I did, as the overall aggression factor of villains at this level means they're far more biased to take free cards than to fire the 2nd barrel or semibluff again. Like, even when the stack sizes dictate that C/R is the superior play, I've been leading a bunch more lately (and indeed I would lead here again on this board because a BDF is now possible) against a wider range of opponents and generally only getting to take the optimal line against opponents who have absurdly high turn AFs or some kind of preestablished aggressive dynamic with me.

IMO it becomes a lot more viable starting at 1/2, where the average player is more biased toward the more aggressive play and they'll both continue semibluff draws and bet worse made hands a lot wider.

I don't think you can much go wrong by letting him donk/bluff into you - people this passive usually fold when raised unless they have the nuts or close to it. The fact that he min-donks into you on the river means he has either a naked king that didn't improve or just complete air. If I do choose to raise this hand, it's on the flop.

I play against them a lot and I feel my generalizations about them have merit :)

Against HJ with these stats, I believe the flop to be a raise. I don't think it's turning the hand into a bluff at all. Players with these stats will surely call you with worse.

Part of figuring these spots out has a lot to do with the dynamics of the situation and the opponent. I don't really think calling is a bad play because it could induce him to bet the turn again where he might just fold to a flop raise. It's kind of on you to determine what the player's tendencies are. Some aggressive villains will get it in light here when they feel they have a couple of cards to come and a hand that might stand to improve (anyone from a Scandanavian country). Some aggressive villains will always fold when raised but always fire the 2nd barrel figuring your call indicates weakness.

If I am completely readless, my default is definitely to raise flop n this spot. I'd still prefer to have QQ and the nut flush draw than AA and the Q hi flush draw, but I digress... I would never check the turn behind either as the Q is pretty much a blank for his calling range regardless of the fact that you block it, and he wants to draw cheaply (as his stats indicate).

There are a few reasons I call in spots like this. He's effectively priced you in and you still have some nut outs. Yeah, he might share those outs as well and sure you might get it in freerolled on the turn but don't look for monsters under the bed until the lights are out.

Another of the main reasons I like to call this spot is for information. Raises this size are often so totally unbalanced with another aspect of a player's game it makes sense to know which hand classes they are doing this with and what their reaction is once you call. The turn also brings with it some opportunities for you to bluff, like GT hinted at in the first post. I just think you have enough of a hand here, you're deep enough, some nut outs to hit, some good potential bluffing cards, and the potential of gaining some valuable information that calling this small raise has some decent risk/reward to it.

One example (and I know it's not REALLY the same thing, but bear with me) is that I see a lot of TAGs that like to C/R bluff low paired boards out of the blinds very small. If I open from the CO or BTN and the BB calls and it comes 933 and I make my standard c-bet (with virtually my entire range HU) , a lot of TAG / semi thinking players believe that since they also perceive me as TAG, they can get away with a small min or just higher than min sized C/R and that I'll fold overpairs. When I call, they check and fold very frequently. I'll then make a note that a small raise size from them might indicate weakness in other aspects of their game.

At this point, you're calling $69.2 for a pot of $279.9 so you're getting 4 to 1.

You're almost certainly up against a range entirely comprised of made hands, given the way he's played it.

A6**, A3**, 45**, 77**, 66**, AA**, 33**, A7** 79.55%
ks 2s 7h tc 20.45%

The best part of this video, to me, came at the hands discussed simultaneously at the 47-48 minute mark (KKQJ on the J79 board) where you mention having a check raising range to protect the hands you're check folding in 3 bet pots is a key concept I think for lower stakes players. I know that I do tend to lead boards that I absolutely smash when I have 3 bet OOP even when it might be +EV to let them stab at it and then either get the extra money from when they fold their stab or just get it in if they want to.

The other hand where you have the KKQ9 on the A39hh board was also a spot where I think many players simply call the raise and C/F turn blanks. My question is does your logic change when you just have:

1) The nut flush draw but a worse pair (say your hand is KQJ9, so you still have middle pair)

2) The nut flush draw with no pair at all?

If your read is that he doesn't have top set and the best hand he reasonably has is A3 or A9 here (and you block an A9 combo) is this a play you're routinely making against all types of villains or only ones as wide as the villain in this particular hand (where as you said he was stacking off absurdly light here and might do so with something like 24xx with hearts)

Thanks.

Thanks for these mathy threads/followups GT. I am not a PPT ninja and though I know the basic equities, I still remain mostly a player that relies on my feel/experience in the heat of the moment. The math you've run here gives me a little validation from my earlier post that I'm not a complete imbecile :) So, thanks for these data heavy posts.

Looks OK to me.

I'd hold my nose and call; I'm pretty much never bet/folding this spot to a minraise because I see idiots raise the nut flush here for "value" sometimes.