bobby1408

Once he b/c the turn, I think he either has a draw or Ax. Pot is already big on turn not to shove w/ a monster himself this deep. On the river I would shove myself or as played I would call very fast.

Yes, that's what I was trying to say, that villain has plenty of bluffs, in my opinion unbalanced towards bluffs on turn. The overbet on river also supports this view. Thanks for your response!

What's the difference between a std of 100, 80, 50? Thanks!

After a bit more thought, I can see at least two other scenarios happening:
Endgame 3 - RIO succeeds and alongside Party et co.generate most of the traffic in online poker due to the fact that Beat the clock and Spin and Go's are not sustainable on the long run. A significant part of recreationals will move to conventional poker sites because they prefer complex games. They are shortly followed by regs, and Pokerstars becomes the poor game across the street with high rake and 0 Customers.
Endgame 4 - RIO succeeds but this time Pokerstars adjusts to the situation, and the whole landscape of online poker is reverted to the exact moment when Amaya bought Pokerstars.

I think once a 200NL player starts calling flop w/ KQ,KJ,QJ type of hands, he needs to have a plan on future streets to win the hand given the fact that the reg who squeezed has few hands that don't connect with the flop and stab once on AKx flop like suited connectors, under pairs QQ,JJ,TT (blocked by KQ, QJ, KJ, KT and sometimes played differently ), or small suited aces ( also played differently ). Given this considerations and the fact he is more likely to have broadways in his range than one combo of A5s, 3 combos of 55 and 4 combos of QTs, I think he will bet turn/shove river with these hands ( Kx hands also have the benefit of blocking strong hands like AK,KK which squeezer could have in his x/c turn range ). The reg should call AJ here to not overfold versus other 200NL player, who should be capable in my opinion of making these bluffs. What do you think of my thought process?

Hi Phil! Don't make the mistake to believe that regs are worthless for a site, as the VP of Amaya suggested. If that was truly the case, they would have no problem sending an email to all of their regs recommending them to play on other sites such as RIO ( ask them if you don't believe me ). Best of luck with your poker site!

Merry Christmas!

Hello,

I think you should call. The only hand that beats you is QQ. AA is unlikely because he would have 4b preflop, KTs and T8s are also unlikely. I also think you should have very good reads to make that fold and u said you don't have hands on him.

Yes!

Hey BigFiszh,

No doubt now that your formula is correct, but I have a problem with the numbers:D. You say " When we win, we not only win his 4bet, but we win the bet we already made as well, so our win in case Villain folds to our shove is 6 (blinds) + 12 (HJ-open) + 34 (our 3bet) + 78 (HJ 4-bet) = 130." I think we win 2$ + ( 4$ + 30$ ) + ( 12$ + 66$ ) = 114$. What I want to say is that hero puts another 30$ to make a 3bet of 34$ and villain 66$ to make a 4bet of 78$. Am I wrong?

Hello,

I'm not an expert, but I'll try to solve this problem:

If villain folds 44% of the time to your shove, you win 0.44 x 80 ( 2$ from SB + 78$ his 4bet )

If villain calls 56% of the time, you win 0.3 x 802 ( 400$ your stack + 400$ his stack + 2$ form SB ) and you lose 0.7 x 802 (  400$ your stack + 400$ his stack + 2$ form SB )

Ev= 0.44 x 80 + 0.56 ( 0.3 x 802 - 0.7 x 802 )

= 35.2 + 0.56 x -320.8

=35.2 - 179.6

= - 144.4 $

The negative Ev is somehow predictable since he calls 56% of the time with hands that dominate A2s. If my math is off, please correct me.

Edit: Go to Active Session  -  Right click the hand you want to post  -  Copy  -  Paste it on Run it Once. Make sure you select Add Hand History ( not Add Post ).

Hello,

Go to Active Session  -  Right click the hand you want to post  -  Copy with stats  -  Paste it on Run it Once. Make sure you select Add Hand History ( not Add Post ). It worked for me.

Thanks for the feedback. I called the flop and the turn because TT is a hand at the top of my range. If it was CO vs. BT, how would you play the hand assuming he 3 bets a wider range?