bigtstorms

Earlier I overlooked the difference in playability between QQ and JJ-TT a bit, still think we should flat QQ, where folding TT/JJ/AQ can be fine.

I actually think flatting the 3b is best here. I'd flat w TT-QQ. 4b/c probably isn't +ev because villain is unlikely to be 3b/bluffing enough here. By flatting we're less exploitable and we're still giving villain the possibility to bluff off vs us. KK and AA I'd like to 4b/c 52$.

I was quite surprised to see you fold QQ there. 

I was wondering how QQ is not a 4b/shove spot there, so I analyzed it a bit.

Mbk88 seems to be a reg, is at all 6 tables -> likely to be capable of recognizing a good squeeze spot.

Hero's perceived range with a 4b/shove: AK+, TT+(?)

EV if hero folds: -5$
Assuming Mbk88 3b/shoves only AK+, QQ+, every time, hero still has 40.2% equity.

40.2% of total pot (428$) = $179.8 -> -30$

If villain folds, hero wins 44$

Villain needs to fold ~57% of his 3b range in order to make the 4b/c more +ev than a fold for hero.

Villains 5b/c range (AK+, QQ+) consists of 42 combos.

Villain would need to have another ~58 3b/f combos to make the 4b/c more +ev than a fold for hero.

Imo it's a lot closer than you initially made it look, but probably still a fold. Without any specific reads on villain I don't think villain is 3b/f 58% of the time in this spot and has QQ+, AK+ often enough to make this a fold.

It should be noted, though, that when you're folding QQ here, you're pretty much folding your whole range vs a squeeze in this spot, which makes the 3b extremely profitable and hero can be exploited massively. So if/when villain starts 3b/squeezing more often, this spot becomes a clear 4b/shove.