aurora446
0 points
I disagree with the range you attributed for villain on the river and think this is much further towards being a c/f than your current analysis reveals.
I think it’s crucial to know how liberally villain is calling the flop cbet. Would he call with for example 89ss expecting his pair outs to be good a lot and having a backdoor flushdraw? Equally could we therefore expect hands like QJhh, or do we expect him to shove the turn with this?
Using what I consider a more accurate range of AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8s, T7s, 99-33, A8s, A3s, AJ and then adding QJs, Q9s, J9s, J8s, 98s, 97s, 78s (specifically the heart, diamond and spade combos) along with KJhh I get a total of 110 combos I believe.
Our equity v this new range is 55.46% on the river.
Based on this I would still conclude it’s a c/f based on not expecting him to call with anywhere near 100% of the combos we beat but 100% of the combos that beat us, and how liberally I have attributed a flop and turn floating range.
Apologies in advance for possible mistakes with the numbers.
Additionally c/c seems like a very viable option if it increases the number of combos we beat, putting money in (a combination of him turning hands into bluffs and value betting worse) and we now have favourable pot odds. There could also be additional floats that turned flushdraws which are now air which I didn't fully investigate, and this would better protect our checking range which I assume (maybe incorrectly) is relatively weak atm.
I think it’s crucial to know how liberally villain is calling the flop cbet. Would he call with for example 89ss expecting his pair outs to be good a lot and having a backdoor flushdraw? Equally could we therefore expect hands like QJhh, or do we expect him to shove the turn with this?
Using what I consider a more accurate range of AT, KT, QT, JT, T9, T8s, T7s, 99-33, A8s, A3s, AJ and then adding QJs, Q9s, J9s, J8s, 98s, 97s, 78s (specifically the heart, diamond and spade combos) along with KJhh I get a total of 110 combos I believe.
Our equity v this new range is 55.46% on the river.
Based on this I would still conclude it’s a c/f based on not expecting him to call with anywhere near 100% of the combos we beat but 100% of the combos that beat us, and how liberally I have attributed a flop and turn floating range.
Apologies in advance for possible mistakes with the numbers.
Additionally c/c seems like a very viable option if it increases the number of combos we beat, putting money in (a combination of him turning hands into bluffs and value betting worse) and we now have favourable pot odds. There could also be additional floats that turned flushdraws which are now air which I didn't fully investigate, and this would better protect our checking range which I assume (maybe incorrectly) is relatively weak atm.
Feb. 21, 2013 | 5:30 a.m.
19min 78o vs K7
You mess around on dry boards (donk leading and as in this case C/R Flop).
Kanu checks back K7, which is a very strong hand in his Range - Also he can rep Bluffs as the hand played out.
You didnt comment on him checking back, dont you think this is strange?
My first thougth was, that he is trying to gain information here what you re exactly up to on dry boards.
the conflict I have with this argument is: as I understand Kanu is a GTO player and this Information gain would only be valuable to an exploiitive strategy.
What are your thoughts?
You mess around on dry boards (donk leading and as in this case C/R Flop).
Kanu checks back K7, which is a very strong hand in his Range - Also he can rep Bluffs as the hand played out.
You didnt comment on him checking back, dont you think this is strange?
My first thougth was, that he is trying to gain information here what you re exactly up to on dry boards.
the conflict I have with this argument is: as I understand Kanu is a GTO player and this Information gain would only be valuable to an exploiitive strategy.
What are your thoughts?
Feb. 18, 2013 | 1:01 p.m.
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March 9, 2013 | 11:05 a.m.