atwu

Very nice fast paced analysis and video, thanks.

Why do we 3bet the last hand A5o vs bt open 28bb eff? Do you think it plays too bad postflop that 3b/f is better than flat? Normally I would think calling is better but maybe 28bb is too costly for us to stand a pressure from him with presumably capped range deep in the major?

I was thinking about this betsizing as well. It's 29bb effective preflop so the majority of 3bet calling range here are suited and some offsuit broadway, some mid-low suited connectors and some Ax with which the caller got stubborn preflop I would think.

I think against this range the c/shove is not a bad play imo and I use it quite often against this range with missed AQ,AK and vulnerable made hands. Because basically the caller has a lot of air(except for T8s-KTs and some 76s etc.) and is kind of forced to stab to fold out 3bettors c/folding range and he knows he is not going to win the pot with 98s,Q9s,KJx,J9s, Ax etc unless he hits. We allow him to put a significant bet into the pot with weak range and even if he calls we usually still have about 25-28% eqity. If we bet here with AK and got shoved on it really sucks because again we have good eqity against most of his Tx,6x, good pot odds and if he has A9,AJ,78s or something like that its a monumental error to fold. Against the most aggresive/spewy opponents I even like c/c twice for value sometimes...

I like a smaller bet in this spot which would leave about a potsized bet on the turn so something around 37k, because vs players who are automatically c/folding it almost doesnt matter and vs active players who are are going to c/shove it saves us some chips and if they call it allows us to put a bigger pressure on the turn with a potsize bet.

What do you guys think about this?

I was thinking about this hand as well. I dont think we need that much protection since its BvB and ranges are wide so he doesnt have that much eqity as often(e.g. Ax, broadways).

But I dont know about the turn fold, again its BvB and I can see villain doublebarreling weaker hands for value and/or protection. I guess its a lot about player tendencies and history and the diamond really sucks, but by default I think I would be calling the turn and reevaluating river given the aggresivenes of games nowadays.

Hi,

21 - AJo

You said in the video that you think ev of calling and folding preflop is about the same. Isn't then folding a way better play due lower variance and icm implications?

Just watching the video and liking it so far, congrats on shipping it! =)

congrats! :)

Ship it! :)

Congrats!

Hi Paul, thx for a reply :),

I think against most "standard" villains no because most will just not do it as a bluff(be it because they just dont bother or the play is too balsy or because they realize they cant rep much). So I think when they do it they will show up with a slowplayed or rivered big hand way more often than with a bluff.

But against a villain we have a read that he will take every opportunity be it because he is good or spewy then yeah, also then I think we can even try to induce that by using an appropriate sizing...

Liked it very much :) great completion to the replayer videos, thanks!

Hi,

88 at about 11-12min. Assuming he's not gonna use bet/check/bet line here to bluff a lot(but use it as potcontrol and vb vs less than Ax) aren't we better off deciding between vb/block betting and x/folding? In case we vb/blockbet we can set our price vs better hands and I can imagine we would still get suspicious calls from K high, 7x, rivered 4x or lower pairs... Thx and nice video :)

Wow, what an eye-opening analysis on the A9s hand!(for me at least:)). Thx and A+.

I dont see why Q8 and Q3 should be different here, described played most likely doesnt call Q2,Q3,Q5 or Q8 from sb(maybe suited combos some small % of time).

I think I would push 55+,KJs+,A9s+,ATo+,KQo. ICMizer should answer this.

Very helpful, thx.

So I guess 77 is our cut off spot here? R/c 77 and better and I guess fold 22-66 and open Ax blocker instead if we decide to steal?

Yeah, bet/check/bet looks good because we wont get 3 streets of value from bare J almost ever and because this runout also often improves his range so hes more likely to pay off river.(even though we very rarely show up with a bluff here).

I also think that on this board people wont be stabbing too much vs missed cbet(not without a heart and will also check mediums hearts back imo) so we dont gain almost anything by checking the flop(Kh or Qh could be stabbig but its also calling a bet so...)

Thank you guys,

in game I figured I wasnt gonna r/f almost ever so I thought by openshoving I would fold out a flip(AJs-ATs, KJs+, QJs, QTs, AJo-ATo, KQo, occasionaly some random JTs,9Ts etc.) that it would outweigh the times when I deny a resteal shove from 22-77.

After doing some simple math on it I found out that I would need to make them fold a flip 5 times more often to make up for one time when I get it in 80/20 which is too much and more than I expected(even more when we take into account some 70/30 like A2s-A5s). I guess 88 is too strong to do that in the end. So is openshoving really bad?(Should we not have an openshoving range here? its 21bb deep vs 4 opponents vs two others 17 and 13bb eff.)

@Cairy

Why do we tread a big blind 3bet differently than from others? Since he is bigstack and we figure that he would be pressuring us more often then others because of that? Or because he had 3bet 2 hands out of 6 before this hand happened?

Thanks again. 

I like this reasoning and it makes a lot of sense, but it also expects our opponent to be disciplined enough to fold. I mean, there is a lot of players meaning even "regulars" who will call with some kind of a pair(obviously just a bluffcatcher) just because: "they have already invested a lot", "they are tilted that they missed" or because "they dont want to fold". Some will even call in certain spots with A high not because it makes sense but just because they have seen some good players make calldowns with that(online or on tv etc.) I have seen this so many times in so many ridiculous spots live and online that it makes me think that some players will almost rather intentionally call and lose than fold.

So how much do you take this into account or do you just pounce in good spots and it usually works? I sometimes see a good spot like this but dont take it because of all this. I have a note for lose aggresive and by my judgment bad regulars and I especially try not to bluff those much on the river because imo they are especially prone to make those calls.(Perhaps because they run themselfs a lot of barrels?)

Of course this is very general, but any opinions on this?

Nice reads and detailed analysis, more pls :)

Haha Fedor, that explains it =) I didnt recognize him by the voice :/

Very insightful from both of you, really a top notch video thanks! Same goes for a format of this video, perfect. And yeah BrickAndCRAI should get an offer from RIO(if he's iterested...) :)

Maybe a stupid question, but since I didnt find out yet... Did PT4 has this vs hero stats? E.g. 3bet vs hero, fold to 3b vs hero etc.?

I also cant really decide between hem2 and pt4...

Hey, nice video.

Regarding the KK vs AA slowplaying pf, I have heard an argument for slowplaying KK instead of AA because of the missed eqity advantage in preflop allin confrontations(especialy vs AK and AQ) when our opponents were ready to stack off preflop but end up missing and folding post flop. Given that AA is 95% vs AK pf and KK is only 70-75% vs AK, we lose so much that it most likely overweights all the reasons for slowplaying AA vs KK preflop. Thx for opinions on this:)

17:30 AQs what about bet/calling say cbet like 5k and call a shove. I think if you just put him allin it actually looks way weaker than if you bet/call, what you would probably do there with hand you want action with, right?

Later in the video(32:50) there is a very similar hand with A5s where you flop middle pair and backdoors and you bet/call it...

I liked the video a lot, your hand reading is strong! :)

Guys, go watch and read comments in previous Nick's videos, he posted many extensive and detailed posts about this.

@Nick

I liked the video overall and I especially like how you just try to form your own opinions and approaches to a different situations and concepts(yeah K8s and those shallowstack bb defends). Not just taking those things as "standard" as most people would without thinking just because they have heard it or seen it somewhere. I think if executed by someone who knows what he is doing, thats what actually shifts the game to the new direction(eventually). I have even taken something from bad players games a few times... I hope this makes at least some sense :/ I guess I just want to say I really appreciate thinking outside of the box and using a critical eye to the "standards".

gl at WCOOP =)  

5:20 great analysis coming down to kings being a valuebet on that river... and overall very nice video, gj!

ChrisMintZ

I think in this sense, lowering the variance by shoving means that you just pick up pot preflop more often when you shove vs 3b/c vs hands that could shove had you just 3bet(hands that have solid eqity vs your hand like mid pairs, KJs, some sc like 89s, 9Ts etc.) And of course you avoid spots when he flats and you continue to play postflop(thats even more of a variance, right?).

And the motivation behind it is as you wrote to not jeopardize your stack and tournament life(maneuvering possibilities) so that you can keep realizing your significant edge in a softer tournament...

Hey, nice video!

Also I really like the general non hands related points you make, its very helpful and encouraging I think.

Ad K9s hand, what about a small 3bet to about 40k? I think he might percieve it as stronger play than shove, we can fold if we get cold4bet shoved on from the bb(of course never folding to the bt), he may also just call and fold the flop, and possibly we might sometimes be able to use it later with monsters(if we show a (semi)bluff here). Alltogether its seems to me like a pretty good option, what do you think?

Hahaha, I love the thought about complex elaborations between KQ6f and KT6f in a world where poker is the most important thing, I can totally imagine that :D :D :D