arsenalua
60 points
We have a basic game with signaling and subsequent moves. Before each player acts he receives some information about the game (part of the info is common to all players, some is not), by his acts he sends some information to other players.
The goal is to maximize $USD expectation (but it would be interesting to introduce CAPM-like model to account for variance and higher moments).
Before acting each player assigns some beliefs and (supposedly) acts on them (this is a tricky part, since it uses rationality assumption, which may fail in some situations), so we can construct Bayesian-Nash equilibrium for the game (we may ignore the fact that poker decision tree is infinitely large for simplicity reasons). With 3+ players I don’t believe it to be unique, but it’s extremely hard to prove.
It is important to formalize information structure, since it is basically the only thing that affects decisions of players.
Common prior:
1. Positions
2. Stack sizes
3. Payoff structure (for MTTs)
4. Board
5. Sizings, history of betting
6. Time to decide
Somewhere in between (non-common prior, but we may enter “k-level thinking game”, based on this information):
1. Stats, notes (easily accessible, help to form an idea about ranges, still easily manipulated and not precise)
2. Population tendencies
3. PIO suggestions (“modern disease of poker”, reference point, which affects the game of many)
4. Table dynamics (presence of weaker player is the most popular signal of this kind, but it covers broad area of signals)
Believe (non-common prior):
1. Ranges
2. Dead cards, board cards, randomization biases (superuser stuff:)
Oct. 17, 2017 | 11:52 a.m.
CO: $51.39
BN: $78.22
SB: $59.40
BB: $84.48
UTG: $50.00
Oct. 23, 2016 | 8:47 a.m.
I'm really not sure about it. As I recall correctly, we bet small on static boards where we have range advantage. Here we shouldn't be ahead and board is pretty dynamic and this line allows villain to realize all equity with second pair for 1/3-1/2 pot. Need to think about it.
Oct. 3, 2016 | 5:58 p.m.
BN: $35.81
SB: $26.12
BB: $36.18 (Hero)
UTG: $40.79
Oct. 3, 2016 | 4:40 p.m.
I actually thought about folding it on the flop, would it be reasonable exploit versus passive 25nl regs?
Oct. 2, 2016 | 11:17 a.m.
Not much equity-wise, but if we fold all underpairs we fold ~70% of hands here, which is totally out of line. So probably calling jacks and tens is standard, but versus competent opponents.
Oct. 2, 2016 | 11:16 a.m.
BB: $27.53
UTG: $25.00
MP: $19.74
CO: $27.02 (Hero)
BN: $30.76
Oct. 2, 2016 | 9:57 a.m.
BN: $26.68
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
UTG: $38.27
Oct. 2, 2016 | 9:55 a.m.
BN: $26.79 (Hero)
SB: $25.00
BB: $22.44
1) tight, passive
2) loose, passive
3) loose, aggressive
Sept. 27, 2016 | 5:26 a.m.
I believe that your line is a default one, until you have some specific reads about his range.
Sept. 27, 2016 | 4:34 a.m.
I'm sorry for the low activity, but last 25k of hands, which I played in the last two weeks were totally disastrous for me. I've experienced a pretty terrible run in the last three months on nl50-100, and now it continues on 25nl. The worst thing is that I can't manage to show my A-game in this constant swings and start spewing, which might just totally destroy my winrate.
So I worked harder on my basic strategy to make C-game better, also I changed my daily routine slightly, so I am fully prepared for the next upswing.
I think I can play 15-20k till the of the month, so the challenge definitely won't be completed.
P.S. updated results are in the open post.
Sept. 26, 2016 | 6:04 a.m.
I think you shouldn't overcomplicate things, by shoving you realize more than 100% of your equity OTF versus almost every reasonable range, but if you start taking casual lines you will end up here in a very tricky spot versus unknown range and can make lots of mistakes.
Same goes for KK, I think he still may call some A-high OTF, but can fold on some turns. AA is the closest between betting and checking, but I still believe that betting small with AA is better.
Another way is to bet/call 1/5 pot with your whole range, but versus fish you obw can create two unbalanced lines.
Sept. 26, 2016 | 5:46 a.m.
I'm not sure about him calling every Ax, so bluff on the river with a diamond in your hand not going to be a mistake. Still agree though that your hand is good enough to check flop or turn. I would generally mix it up between different lines.
Sept. 20, 2016 | 12:17 p.m.
Great job, Teunuss! Waiting for the second part.
Sept. 17, 2016 | 11:08 a.m.
Heard quite opposite thoughts about people's tendencies from high stakes regular, also remember gogol's nose made video about problems with limping all your range.
Sept. 16, 2016 | 2:05 p.m.
Raising becomes much thinner OTR and possibly shouldn't be done versus good player, but it's still max ev versus 25nl population. Though I would raise earlier, where I can actually have obvious bluffs and I want to avoid him checking back too much with weak value and bluffs, since 25nl players tend to do that.
You better use basic stats like aggression and wwsf, which converge faster.
Sept. 16, 2016 | 2:02 p.m.
Sorry for not giving my opinion in time, but I've been busy with my university stuff lately.
Generally, I want to make a point that playing zoom looks like a bad decision for those who want to climb from low stakes.
While doing so we have two main goals:
1) Do it as fast as we can, to achieve higher profits at the higher level;
- Regular tables are obviously better here (consider Baron's estimate about his winrate at 10nl zoom = 12-15 bb/100, not impressive winrate for regular tables at all)
2) Prepare yourself for midstakes in the best possible way;
- Personally, I think that winning player has three key characteristics:
3) Robust psychological state, meaning all the periods where you potentially can lose a lot (times when you face important decisions on multiple tables, ability to choose a proper game level...)
So in order to win poker you need improve yourself in one of these ways.
Let's have a closer look at each point and compare zoom vs regular:
1) Zoom is obviously better for creating your default plan, but not that helpful as working with flopzilla or PIO
2) This skill is much harder to improve in zoom games since the lack of dynamic and less versatile player pool. Also, you want to be perfect playing versus weak players since you can gain a lot from them, zoom creates tons of regulars who doesn't know how to stack 50/10 whale, cause they used to steal blinds from 18/6 nits. Another thing is may be really harmful getting skills that allow you to exploit weak small stakes regular, since midstakes pool will be completely different and you will lose a lot while adjusting your gameplan
'''Lost structure on this one, but hope you get a point'''3) It's hard to find arguments on this one, because of not clear definition, but playing regular tables you usually face more non-standard psychological decisions which helps you to improve your overall skill set as a poker player.
I heard from several coaches, that zooming for a rake at micro and low level is not the best way to treat your poker career. So eat fish, do well and stop thinking about GTO stuff while there's tons of people who never folds aces, because they are pretty.
Wanted to get deeper into this, but unfortunately I have to go.
Sept. 16, 2016 | 5:56 a.m.
Russian coaches from 5k nl (like Jayser1337, for example) would say that you are a huge nit and they have no fucking idea how you can beat this games. Though you must be very good and experienced in hand reading, if you are actually winning money with such a low aggression.
Sept. 14, 2016 | 5:46 a.m.
You never expect to get it in with more than 60% equity (and I do believe in this position your equity is around 50%) while he still has plenty of spews. You just call and get more Info about his range and maybe raise turn.
As played easy river fold, almost no bluffs in his range.
Sept. 13, 2016 | 2:37 p.m.
I would assume bluffing with AdX is pretty bad
Sept. 13, 2016 | 1:11 p.m.
With a normal size you generally fold his AQ like hands and pairs lower than 8x. Best bluffing candidates are 76, 79, 64, A4, A2 - together 15 combos. You may struggle finding enough value hands (it depends on bluffing turn with KQ, KJ which I'm not sure about and vb hands like JJ which is also thin).
So in some cases you can add low equity fd in bluffing range, but usually it leads to you overbluffing river and I don't think that's proper strategy in this spot, he will bluffcatch/shove wide since it's so tempting for you to bluff here.
Sept. 13, 2016 | 1:05 p.m.
I don't know what's wrong with this world. I've done all important things during the day to enjoy a good old night session full of fish and juicy tables. I even drank a can of Adrenaline Rush stuff to feel awake and full of energy during the night (and go sleep at boring lectures at 10am).
But now I'm playing mostly HU vs regs and my TableScanner shows only 8 tables with weaker players. THAT JUST SUUUUCKS!!!
Never played much at this time of day. Is it always that bad?
Today's results look fine btw, I increased share of 50nl tables and desreased table number to avoid mistakes at 50nl.
Graph looks like this
It may have been the hand of the day these spots always happen to me when I play too many tables
Sept. 12, 2016 | 3:05 a.m.
MP: $50.00 (Hero)
CO: $55.01
BN: $51.49
SB: $76.27
BB: $50.00
Sept. 12, 2016 | 3 a.m.
Reg tables, I think it's almost impossible to achieve that winrate on fast tables, I played 400k this year 25nl - 100nl with ~1bb/100 - I really doubt that anyone beats them higher than 7bb/100 over a large sample.
The changes disappointed me slightly, but they won't affect my goals so far. But it will be easier to restate my position if something important comes in other areas of life.
Sept. 11, 2016 | 4:55 p.m.
Seriously, we are not afraid of any turn card if we expect some amount of aggression from fish. Also, we put reg into a tough spot with his overpairs and potentially can stack two opponents and protect our giveups
Sept. 11, 2016 | 10:20 a.m.
Just heard some topreg saying it's good to check Aces in 3BP)
Sept. 11, 2016 | 10:15 a.m.
I might be hard to get that money out of weak pairs and by betting small I also induce some bluff raises/spews from this guy.
We don't have over 50% equity on this turn and would be just value betting ourself. And flush turned doesn't scare me, since we usually cbet fd and have lots of flushes. This disbalances our ranges and puts us into a spot where we have too strong range to got bluffed into. I see only two options for this hand: 1) part of the range bet to fold his equity 2)check-fold turn, maybe calling versus morons, cause he shouldn't be betting with GS into such a strong range, but he still has plenty of flushes.
Oct. 5, 2016 | 5:37 p.m.