arsenalua's avatar

arsenalua

60 points

I tried to formalize the look of the game to make it simpler to make additional inferences and develop new solution concepts rather than using ambiguous and complex "GTO". If you have comments, suggestions, anything - please share in the thread, much appreciated

We have a basic game with signaling and subsequent moves. Before each player acts he receives some information about the game (part of the info is common to all players, some is not), by his acts he sends some information to other players.

The goal is to maximize $USD expectation (but it would be interesting to introduce CAPM-like model to account for variance and higher moments).

Before acting each player assigns some beliefs and (supposedly) acts on them (this is a tricky part, since it uses rationality assumption, which may fail in some situations), so we can construct Bayesian-Nash equilibrium for the game (we may ignore the fact that poker decision tree is infinitely large for simplicity reasons). With 3+ players I don’t believe it to be unique, but it’s extremely hard to prove.

It is important to formalize information structure, since it is basically the only thing that affects decisions of players.

Common prior:
1. Positions
2. Stack sizes
3. Payoff structure (for MTTs)
4. Board
5. Sizings, history of betting
6. Time to decide

Somewhere in between (non-common prior, but we may enter “k-level thinking game”, based on this information):
1. Stats, notes (easily accessible, help to form an idea about ranges, still easily manipulated and not precise)
2. Population tendencies
3. PIO suggestions (“modern disease of poker”, reference point, which affects the game of many)
4. Table dynamics (presence of weaker player is the most popular signal of this kind, but it covers broad area of signals)

Believe (non-common prior):
1. Ranges
2. Dead cards, board cards, randomization biases (superuser stuff:)

Oct. 17, 2017 | 11:52 a.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: Calling a raise Vs weak player
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) MP: $50.00 (Hero)
CO: $51.39
BN: $78.22
SB: $59.40
BB: $84.48
UTG: $50.00
54/20 weak player with WWSF 43 and afq 23/46/38
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is MP with K Q
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.48, 3 folds, BB calls $0.98
Flop ($3.81) K 8 5
BB checks, Hero bets $1.95, BB raises to $6.40, Hero calls $4.45
Would you consider a 3bet
Turn ($16.61) K 8 5 K
BB bets $10.00, Hero calls $10.00
River ($36.61) K 8 5 K 2
BB bets $60.50, Hero calls $32.02 and is all in
Usually when weak players pot bet hands they like. I doubt that he plays weaker kings this way and with such a low afq OTF he might not bluff flop enough. Seems like a thin call here to me.

Oct. 23, 2016 | 8:47 a.m.

We don't have over 50% equity on this turn and would be just value betting ourself. And flush turned doesn't scare me, since we usually cbet fd and have lots of flushes. This disbalances our ranges and puts us into a spot where we have too strong range to got bluffed into. I see only two options for this hand: 1) part of the range bet to fold his equity 2)check-fold turn, maybe calling versus morons, cause he shouldn't be betting with GS into such a strong range, but he still has plenty of flushes.

Oct. 5, 2016 | 5:37 p.m.

I'm really not sure about it. As I recall correctly, we bet small on static boards where we have range advantage. Here we shouldn't be ahead and board is pretty dynamic and this line allows villain to realize all equity with second pair for 1/3-1/2 pot. Need to think about it.

Oct. 3, 2016 | 5:58 p.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: Have no idea how to play my range
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players) CO: $26.68
BN: $35.81
SB: $26.12
BB: $36.18 (Hero)
UTG: $40.79
Regular
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with Q A
2 folds, BN raises to $0.63, SB folds, Hero raises to $2.18, BN calls $1.55
Flop ($4.46) A J 7
Hero bets $2.42, BN calls $2.42
The main problem is that if we choose to bet many flushdraws we smash this turn and then we can't value bet our top pairs and two pairs, cause villian needs to overfold (i've 60/40 equity relation on the turn and it's pretty robust), so we bet allmost all air and check weak pairs and TP. So when he bets on our check he has almost no bluffs, since we fold only ~10% of weak pairs which we randomly bet OTF and if he doesn't bluff we can't call AQ and need to fold. And I have no idea how to play my range correctly.
Turn ($9.30) A J 7 6
Hero checks, BN bets $4.00, Hero calls $4.00
River ($17.30) A J 7 6 8
Hero checks, BN bets $12.50, Hero folds

Oct. 3, 2016 | 4:40 p.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on Delayed bet in 3BP

I actually thought about folding it on the flop, would it be reasonable exploit versus passive 25nl regs?

Oct. 2, 2016 | 11:17 a.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on Delayed bet in 3BP

Not much equity-wise, but if we fold all underpairs we fold ~70% of hands here, which is totally out of line. So probably calling jacks and tens is standard, but versus competent opponents.

Oct. 2, 2016 | 11:16 a.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: Delayed bet in 3BP
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (6 Players) SB: $25.00
BB: $27.53
UTG: $25.00
MP: $19.74
CO: $27.02 (Hero)
BN: $30.76
Looks like a passive player, but with reasonable 3bet stat
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is CO with 7 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.74, BN folds, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, Hero calls $1.76
Flop ($5.25) 6 2 K
SB bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50
Turn ($10.25) 6 2 K K
SB checks, Hero checks
River ($10.25) 6 2 K K Q
SB bets $4.75, Hero folds

Oct. 2, 2016 | 9:57 a.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: River raise from weak opponent
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (5 Players) CO: $25.15
BN: $26.68
SB: $25.00
BB: $25.00 (Hero)
UTG: $38.27
Villain is 46/14 weak player with high wtsd.
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BB with 9 6
UTG calls $0.25, 3 folds, Hero checks
Flop ($0.60) A 9 2
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25
Turn ($1.10) A 9 2 6
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.30, UTG calls $1.80
River ($5.70) A 9 2 6 K
Hero bets $4.78, UTG raises to $9.56, Hero folds

Oct. 2, 2016 | 9:55 a.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: Overpair versus fish
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25 (4 Players) CO: $30.29
BN: $26.79 (Hero)
SB: $25.00
BB: $22.44
Preflop ($0.35) Hero is BN with K K
CO folds, Hero raises to $0.50, SB folds, BB calls $0.25
Flop ($1.10) 7 4 2
BB checks, Hero bets $0.59, BB raises to $1.70, Hero raises to $4.23, BB raises to $21.94 and is all in, Hero calls $17.71
I'm curious about your defaults here versus different types of weak players:
1) tight, passive
2) loose, passive
3) loose, aggressive
Turn ($44.98) 7 4 2 T
River ($44.98) 7 4 2 T T

Sept. 27, 2016 | 5:26 a.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on NL50 4bp

Both streets were played bad, in my opinion. You analyzed your mistakes pretty well yourself. I would only add that you perceived to have AK very often with this line, so KQ is rarely folding.

Sept. 27, 2016 | 5:18 a.m.

I believe that your line is a default one, until you have some specific reads about his range.

Sept. 27, 2016 | 4:34 a.m.

I'm sorry for the low activity, but last 25k of hands, which I played in the last two weeks were totally disastrous for me. I've experienced a pretty terrible run in the last three months on nl50-100, and now it continues on 25nl. The worst thing is that I can't manage to show my A-game in this constant swings and start spewing, which might just totally destroy my winrate.
So I worked harder on my basic strategy to make C-game better, also I changed my daily routine slightly, so I am fully prepared for the next upswing.
I think I can play 15-20k till the of the month, so the challenge definitely won't be completed.
P.S. updated results are in the open post.

Sept. 26, 2016 | 6:04 a.m.

I think you shouldn't overcomplicate things, by shoving you realize more than 100% of your equity OTF versus almost every reasonable range, but if you start taking casual lines you will end up here in a very tricky spot versus unknown range and can make lots of mistakes.
Same goes for KK, I think he still may call some A-high OTF, but can fold on some turns. AA is the closest between betting and checking, but I still believe that betting small with AA is better.
Another way is to bet/call 1/5 pot with your whole range, but versus fish you obw can create two unbalanced lines.

Sept. 26, 2016 | 5:46 a.m.

I'm not sure about him calling every Ax, so bluff on the river with a diamond in your hand not going to be a mistake. Still agree though that your hand is good enough to check flop or turn. I would generally mix it up between different lines.

Sept. 20, 2016 | 12:17 p.m.

Great job, Teunuss! Waiting for the second part.

Sept. 17, 2016 | 11:08 a.m.

Heard quite opposite thoughts about people's tendencies from high stakes regular, also remember gogol's nose made video about problems with limping all your range.

Sept. 16, 2016 | 2:05 p.m.

Raising becomes much thinner OTR and possibly shouldn't be done versus good player, but it's still max ev versus 25nl population. Though I would raise earlier, where I can actually have obvious bluffs and I want to avoid him checking back too much with weak value and bluffs, since 25nl players tend to do that.
You better use basic stats like aggression and wwsf, which converge faster.

Sept. 16, 2016 | 2:02 p.m.

Sorry for not giving my opinion in time, but I've been busy with my university stuff lately.

Generally, I want to make a point that playing zoom looks like a bad decision for those who want to climb from low stakes.

While doing so we have two main goals:
1) Do it as fast as we can, to achieve higher profits at the higher level;
- Regular tables are obviously better here (consider Baron's estimate about his winrate at 10nl zoom = 12-15 bb/100, not impressive winrate for regular tables at all)

2) Prepare yourself for midstakes in the best possible way;
- Personally, I think that winning player has three key characteristics:

1) Strong default strategy; 2) Ability to deviate in order to exploit opponent's leaks;

3) Robust psychological state, meaning all the periods where you potentially can lose a lot (times when you face important decisions on multiple tables, ability to choose a proper game level...)

So in order to win poker you need improve yourself in one of these ways.
Let's have a closer look at each point and compare zoom vs regular:

1) Zoom is obviously better for creating your default plan, but not that helpful as working with flopzilla or PIO

2) This skill is much harder to improve in zoom games since the lack of dynamic and less versatile player pool. Also, you want to be perfect playing versus weak players since you can gain a lot from them, zoom creates tons of regulars who doesn't know how to stack 50/10 whale, cause they used to steal blinds from 18/6 nits. Another thing is may be really harmful getting skills that allow you to exploit weak small stakes regular, since midstakes pool will be completely different and you will lose a lot while adjusting your gameplan

'''Lost structure on this one, but hope you get a point'''

3) It's hard to find arguments on this one, because of not clear definition, but playing regular tables you usually face more non-standard psychological decisions which helps you to improve your overall skill set as a poker player.

I heard from several coaches, that zooming for a rake at micro and low level is not the best way to treat your poker career. So eat fish, do well and stop thinking about GTO stuff while there's tons of people who never folds aces, because they are pretty.

Wanted to get deeper into this, but unfortunately I have to go.

Sept. 16, 2016 | 5:56 a.m.

Russian coaches from 5k nl (like Jayser1337, for example) would say that you are a huge nit and they have no fucking idea how you can beat this games. Though you must be very good and experienced in hand reading, if you are actually winning money with such a low aggression.

Sept. 14, 2016 | 5:46 a.m.

You never expect to get it in with more than 60% equity (and I do believe in this position your equity is around 50%) while he still has plenty of spews. You just call and get more Info about his range and maybe raise turn.
As played easy river fold, almost no bluffs in his range.

Sept. 13, 2016 | 2:37 p.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on NL100 - river bluf?

I would assume bluffing with AdX is pretty bad

Sept. 13, 2016 | 1:11 p.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on NL100 - river bluf?

With a normal size you generally fold his AQ like hands and pairs lower than 8x. Best bluffing candidates are 76, 79, 64, A4, A2 - together 15 combos. You may struggle finding enough value hands (it depends on bluffing turn with KQ, KJ which I'm not sure about and vb hands like JJ which is also thin).
So in some cases you can add low equity fd in bluffing range, but usually it leads to you overbluffing river and I don't think that's proper strategy in this spot, he will bluffcatch/shove wide since it's so tempting for you to bluff here.

Sept. 13, 2016 | 1:05 p.m.

I don't know what's wrong with this world. I've done all important things during the day to enjoy a good old night session full of fish and juicy tables. I even drank a can of Adrenaline Rush stuff to feel awake and full of energy during the night (and go sleep at boring lectures at 10am).
But now I'm playing mostly HU vs regs and my TableScanner shows only 8 tables with weaker players. THAT JUST SUUUUCKS!!!
Never played much at this time of day. Is it always that bad?
Today's results look fine btw, I increased share of 50nl tables and desreased table number to avoid mistakes at 50nl.
Graph looks like this

It may have been the hand of the day these spots always happen to me when I play too many tables

Sept. 12, 2016 | 3:05 a.m.

Hand History | arsenalua posted in NLHE: Very awkward hand at 50nl
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50 (6 Players) UTG: $50.89
MP: $50.00 (Hero)
CO: $55.01
BN: $51.49
SB: $76.27
BB: $50.00
Villian is a weak/average regular of 50nl.
Preflop ($0.75) Hero is MP with T T
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.20, 2 folds, SB calls $0.95, BB folds
Flop ($2.90) K T 6
SB checks, Hero bets $1.71, SB raises to $4.80, Hero raises to $13.25, SB calls $8.45
I assumed him to be value heavy in this spot, so I just bloat the pot.
Turn ($29.40) K T 6 Q
SB checks, Hero bets $18.50, SB calls $18.50
Don't like my sizing. Think we can profitably shove vs this guy and achieve highest ev
River ($66.40) K T 6 Q 9
SB bets $18.00, Hero folds
It gets super weird. I can't see a bluff, I fold despite the pot odds, though I feel smashed.

Sept. 12, 2016 | 3 a.m.

Reg tables, I think it's almost impossible to achieve that winrate on fast tables, I played 400k this year 25nl - 100nl with ~1bb/100 - I really doubt that anyone beats them higher than 7bb/100 over a large sample.
The changes disappointed me slightly, but they won't affect my goals so far. But it will be easier to restate my position if something important comes in other areas of life.

Sept. 11, 2016 | 4:55 p.m.

Seriously, we are not afraid of any turn card if we expect some amount of aggression from fish. Also, we put reg into a tough spot with his overpairs and potentially can stack two opponents and protect our giveups

Sept. 11, 2016 | 10:20 a.m.

Just heard some topreg saying it's good to check Aces in 3BP)

Sept. 11, 2016 | 10:15 a.m.

Comment | arsenalua commented on Q8s 50nl

It's versus MP and he opened 2.5x, this hand is ~top25% of all hands. I think it's close to 0EV.

Sept. 11, 2016 | 9:50 a.m.

I might be hard to get that money out of weak pairs and by betting small I also induce some bluff raises/spews from this guy.

Sept. 11, 2016 | 9:46 a.m.

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