andhefell

At 200bb, we can call a lot of lower K to a small 4b. Also might C/R AA on flop. SO we aren't really folding 37.5%

And would you choose to float more top p type hands maybe with a straight draw, or more NF blocker with middle pair or even nothing type hands. It would be excessive to be floating all of them, and we would be betting too high a % on the river when checked to.

It seems on the higher boards like QJx the value of floating the NF blocker goes up. Since many high flush cards are on board the opponent with combinatorically have more low flushes. Also since he 3b and is high card heavy, the showdown of the top P or overpair or 2p type hands goes down because he can definitely be barreling one of those himself as a bluff.

The converse is true on low boards. As even if we have the NF blocked, many K, Q, J  flushes are still possible. And you rep more thin value than NF heavy. He could sit there with K high flush often thinking you're value betting Q high and call for that reason. Then 2p, overpair type hands have alot more SDV.

If he had a pretty high flush on the turn like Qxss he wouldn't be betting very often. He can't get 2 streets from anything and a bet if it checks to him on the river looks weaker and you yourself are weaker also he gets called more due to no future streets. Also he can induce some bluffs. Same thing with his floats, it makes more sense to check back his floats, then make a small bet on the river. And he avoids getting C/r. And no reason for him to barrell off with a good bluff hand. The best hand to bluff with in his spot is 7x, as you fold out flushes and have draw to full house. But 7x beats AA so he could just check it down.

But for this very reason he could just be floating you with any 4 cards a high% of the time and bet the turn small because it looks like he wouldn't. It's all a guessing game.

That's why I wouldn't make the small float inviting bet on the flop OOP at these stack sizes. Your'e pretty much obliged to continue firing on non pairing turns and he will know you don't have it often or you can C/F turn. Then on pairing turns this dilemna happens. Don't get me wrong I love the small bet in position at 1.8k stacks to 1.2k pot. But OOP just CRAI on flop or delay cbet. In position you can bet small showdown sometimes, and fire off when you want which makes much more sense.

Also the point DirtyD mentioned is solid.

This is how I would play with AA flush or blocker:

In position- small bet like that a high % of the time. Chc/B the remaining %. Barrell off certain times..definitely not too high. And go to show down others. No big bet range.

OOP: Never make that small bet ever. Check most of the time. Jam over a bet, or bet big when he checks back or just give up depending on his frequencies. A small % just bet big give up. And no check calling range either.

Hmm does the OP mean V1 is the type of guy who has the psychology of checking draws to get pot bloated and would only lead made hands?

Seems unlikely he would flat a broadway hand like Ak10+ FD or KJQ in the small blind in a straddle limp hand plus you block those. So it's mainly 22 33 or a bad JJ.

If you raise to around 1.5k you will certainly lose action from the 2 guys behind you, and probably the BB fish. If the SB pots over you it's probably a fold since he shouldn't have the broadway pair+ draw that you dominate and is JJ 22 33 heavy. But if you fold and he has a double straight draw hand like 45 10J or A5 10 Q it would be a disaster to fold. Would he pot K2, J2 type hands over a 1.5k raise? I see it in live games but he would have to be pretty bad.

If you call 500, you invite the 2 behind you to call with random low FD hands, gutters, 45 type hands for the lower straight draw etc. You will lose on the river a high % of the time but the multiway odds make it pretty decent. Added benefit is if the Q comes, you have a high chance of stacking the lower straight, same if K or J comes and you stack lower 2 pairs.

If you just pot here it's the best protection play SB, and 2 behind you would certainly have to fold their weak draws and you take down the pot immediately a high% of the time. Also if V1 has a pair plus draw hand like K45 or K with FD or double draw hand like 10Q 45 he probably has to call it off given the odds. And you would lose action from hands like that had you flatted. You can't go wrong with this line unless and only unless you have a read V1 is strong.

 If you find him jamming alot, then bet hands like Kx with overs to 4 and 7, or Kx with straight draw to get in. Hands like that would normally check but play alot better than AA vs a get in range. You don't have any real outs here beside's Ax getting it in bad.

It's just whether the times you steal the equity of a hand that can't call or jam like 456, 567 outweights the times you get it in bad as the poster above mentioned. This comes up all the time vs shortstackers.

Can you ramble on the further topic of people are always trying to trick each other in tourneys?

How do you approach a line that makes absolutely no sense.

I think the crucial part of the A7hh hand is that there is no value from a lower 2p-A2/A4/47. Leading a gutshot+ pair like 23Ax or 43Ax 24Ax or A467 makes a bit of sense. But he would just bet all those again on the turn since you have hands like KKhh or Axhh which would just check back.

Vs the occassional guy who does check those 2p there I think the value outweights the time he has 35. Guys like the one on the top right would be the type.

Another factor is that some people might have donked a hand like 10 10hh and now check calls. Of course a good player would realize that when you 3b from the blind and call flop you're full of higher flush draws and would snap fold that hand. And a good player is less inclined to donk 10 10hh.

Since during the hand you had a misread that he was a weaker player, I think the bet is correct. Solely revolving around that assumption. Another factor is that weaker players are less likely to C/R.

Addressing the question of how light you should raise this river; it depends on how light he would pay you off which in turn depends on how many bluffs you have.

Would you be raising a 9 to blow him off a chop? Definitely not, he can have stronger hands alot and there's no reason that he's capped to a 9.

Now what hands would you be bluff raising?

Low flush draws that decided to chc b. With 8% 4b and assuming ch/b FD range a small amount that's a few combos. 8 10 , J 10 AJ. These are both hands that will ch/b flop and call turn and now can't call. You shouldn't raise these everytime you have them, but a small percentage is definitely good. KK/AA, you will check these back a small percentage of the time on the flop and now these can't call and you would raise sometimes. Less than above as they dont block full house.

Although it's only very few combos of each hand...they do add up. Now let's look at your value raising range. Assuming we don't raise AK, it wil be limited to boats which decided to slowplay flop. Now we won't be 3bing alot of Q8 Q10 type hands.

So is it more profitable to raise more of the hands mentioned 2  paragraphs above as bluffs and balance with raising AK? Or to give up with the above hands, and flat with AK? Especially vs someone whos 3b 28% and calling 4bs with "any playable hands"?  In short, the first option. Of course versus someone with a solid value heavy 3b range I'd choose the 2nd option,

It's not as simple as:

scneario 1- He's willing to go broke with A10/J on the flop and isn't bluffing enough so we shove.

Scenario 2-He's b/3b with enough combo draws that we need to call down, and as such call any runout except the flush completing.

He's probably playing a mixed strategy where he raises flop for thin value sometime given that you don't connect with the board well, as well as some bluffs. With the bluffs it's not guaranteed that he'll barrell off. He'll fire two some runouts, three sometimes, and probably give up sometimes.

Strategies where you make a decision on an earlier street to call down whatever the runout are overrated. I always see situations where people say if you call turn you have to call river or else it's a leak. This is based on assumptions like everytime he 2 barrells, he three barrells. Or everytime he cbets he's barrelling off. Even if it's true it's not very good logic.

Assuming you will raise 0% this is a good bet with Ax. He needs to polorize himself as rags or nuts so that he can get value from 9x and Kx. Both of these you would be checking back the flop. And an overbet works better against both of these than say half pot. Then it has the added effect of folding off a chop some % of the time.

But if you will raise, then I'm not sure what to think.

He shouldn't have AK because he doesn't rep any bluffs unless he floated the flop with air as there are no missed draws. Also his perceived value range is strong, KQ+. Also you aren't likely to  call down with JJ. Nor are you going to sit there with KJ and call thinking he's betting K10. That only happens in a very aggressive dynamic and you said he thinks ur uncapable. If he is indeed overvaluing AK like this then just give him this pot. He'll pay it all back with interest in the long run for sure playing like that.

Also KQ is near the bottom of his value range. If he's calling with that, it means he's calling with anything. Which also means he'll be paying it all back plus interest in the long run.

Sometimes players may mistakes and actually end up making money because of it. You can't get upset because of that. Just shrug it off and adjust next time. So if he calls KQ then start value towning him. If he was betting AK then start checking to him to let him value cut himself.

By the way the best boards for turning a blocker into a bluff like this is when the bottom of his range is robust and the top is slim.

For example: Flop K 7 8; turn-J; River 10 with the flush completing. On this type of board his combos of 2 pair hands, straights, sets etc. outnumber his flushes.

On K 7 3 Q 4, he doesn't have many K7, 37 type hands that he is likely to fold. And his calling range is likely to be flush heavy.

Your Ah that blocks the nuts flush + pair, and Qh which blocks pair+ draw is pretty irrelevant. I also disagree with him showing up with rags FD unless it's 89hh. Only the LAGTARDS of LAGTARDS would choose this line with them. With QJhh he'd just bet or call. Same with Axhh. He could bet/call/fold with a low FD but I don't see him C/R when you can call with many higher flush draws and he's in a reverse implied odds situation on the river.

His play is either KJ, or Kxhh. Can't be anything else unless he's slowplaying QQ pre or something.

With this hand I'd just go with a timing tell. If he checked pretty fast, then took quite a while to raise. I'd call. And if he took a long time to check, and raised fast, I'd fold.

The fish's psychology is this:

[Act 1 scene 1]

The dealer gazes with squinted eyes at the TV screen behind while he lazily flips over the turn card. Mr. Fish stares intently at the card in motion trying to get a glimpse of the colour before it is fully turned over. His heartbeat drowns the sound of the broken card shuffler.

Fish: Come flush! Come flush! FUCK! There are so many draws on board on Q 10 7, I don't think I can barrell him off. That stations just gona call me down.

He takes another peak at the K of hearts and 4 of hearts

Fish: I'll just check, it'll probably get checked through and I'll stack him flush over flush on the river.

Ki Lee puts out another 400 chips after some deliberation.

Fish: Wow this guy... What if he's betting with 56hh and I call, then the river comes a blank, and he bets again and I just lose like that!!! I can't call omfg. He's not gona stop betting a blank river, no way. But I can't effing fold. I'll raise and see, I remember reading Super System.

[Act 2 scene 2]

Fish: CMon offsuit Ace or 9!! Yeah!!. What if I bet and he calls and the flush comes? Omfg. I don't want to check it to a guy who will pounce on weakness. The stacks are so deep, I need to get the money in here.

He takes a peak at his cards to confirm he has KJ. A potential mistake which had caused him to pawn his rolex last year.

Fish: There's no way he's folding. I mean look at the board. But if I check, he's likely to bet anything and I can raise.