aehardin
11 points
So this is a general question regarding playing NLHE sets on wet boards with 100bb effective pots at the micros against unknown opponents.
For example, if you have TT on a 8TJ 2-tone flop on a single raised pot or AA on a AQJ monotone flop on a 3-bet pot against an unknown either in a HU or 3-way pot, what is your default strategy when facing aggression post-flop?
For example, if you check / raise and are re-raised or if you open and are re-raised? Are you really looking to get it all-in OTF or are you slowing down and playing cautiously?
In my experience, when I play fast and aggressive with my sets on wet boards against an aggressive opponent OTF looking to get all-in I'm usually behind and facing a straight or flush and not a strong draw.
Dec. 19, 2014 | 5:07 a.m.
I was wondering the same thing. I play on Bovada and use Holdem Indicator. I'm really surprised there isn't an FAQ section or "How To" sticky in the forum for posting HH's.
Dec. 9, 2014 | 5:39 p.m.
I agree, you need to go for 3 streets of value here and consider a bet / fold line OTR depending upon the bet sizing and your notes on villain.
I also think you should widen villain's CO calling range to include hands such as KJ+, ATs+; I'd probably include any suited broadways. A 17/8 stat over 12 hands means absolutely nothing; he may look nitty with those stats but he might have been dealt pure crap for that small sample size skewing your view of him. With 12 hands of stats, I'd probably just ignore his stats and fall back to general population reads.
OTF, I like a bigger bet. I'd bet, a minimum 80% pot because it is so wet with so many worse hands that have equity on future streets that can call you (straight draw, flush draw, weaker A, Qx).
OTT, 9d is a blank card, so again bet for value around 3/4 pot or larger.
OTR, I like your value bet, we don't like the 3rd club rolling off but we can get value from weaker Ax combos that made trips. Getting ~2.5:1 on the river re-raise, you only have to win around 28%, so I think it is a crying call when you get raised.
There are lots of combos of flush draws that beat you (Ac is a blocker to being called down by nut flush draw tho) and AQ for the boat, but also lots of weaker Ax suited combos that you beat as well. I don't like calling here, but I think we are too far up in our range to fold here.
Dec. 9, 2014 | 5:37 a.m.
I equate 100NL live to 5 or 10NL online with lots of bad players limping and calling isolation raises with a majority of their range just wanting to see a flop; moreover, being non-thinking poker players they'll donk out and play their hand disregarding that you raised pre-flop and could have a strong hand.
With that said, MP could be donking out with a pair of 7's, such as A7 or 4x for trips. Agreed since two of the 4's are gone, the combinations of 4x hands he could have is reduced by 50%, but there are still 24 combos of A4, 54, and 64, which he might call with pre-flop. He could also donk out with 16 combos of 65, 12 combos of A7, and maybe some weaker 7x combos. He might even donk out with 88 - 99 like you said, adding 12 more combos.
Since you are ~ a 2:1 favorite with combos that you beat versus combos that beat you, let him continue to value-own himself. If you raise, he will probably fold 7x, 88 or 99 and only continue with trips or a boat. If you flat, BB might also come along with a weak holding that you beat and UTG might donk bet out again OTT.
So I'd probably flat OTF and if a bad card doesn't hit the turn look to get it in.
Dec. 9, 2014 | 5:23 a.m.
Sounds like you are definitely on track with having a schedule in place and a good sense of what you need to be doing. One additional thing that might help you is a daily list of priorities from 1 to how ever many items you need to accomplish that day. I have a friend and co-worker that does this in ever aspect of his life from work to chores to leisure activities and he swears by it.
I think a simply daily priority list that you can check off to see how well your are accomplishing your most prioritized goals would be potentially helpful for you.
Cheers!
Dec. 8, 2014 | 8:06 a.m.
I agree with reStacks. Do not doom yourself with quantity over quality. You need to play when you are able to play your A game and nothing else; moreover, you need to balance your playing with off the table studying and analysis of your previous play to see what you did well and what needs improvement.
+1 to recommended "Easy Game" and "Let there Be Range". I'd also recommend adding "Building a Bankroll" by Pawel Nazarewicz, "Poker Math that Matters" by Owen Gaines, "The Poker BluePrint" by Slow Habit, and "Small Stakes NLHE" by Miller to your book reading list.
You need to allocate ample time to working on your game away from the table to effectively improve your game. I started playing again in April of this year and I was like reStacks, never leaving home without my books (put them all on my tablet as eBooks or carried a book around with me). I also only 4-table which allows me to focus on the tables I'm playing 100% and not make hastily sub-par decisions playing multiple tables.
Also, if you can afford it, get a good coach once you hit 25NL or 50NL where it is worth it. There are lots of good coaches with decent hourly rates for micro / small stakes. I would have to say coaching improved my game immensely.
Lastly, join a study group on Skype as well. This way others in a small study group focusing on your game at the same stakes can help you analysis and improve your play.
Good luck to you!
Dec. 8, 2014 | 8:01 a.m.
That was my assumption, I'm assuming 50NL isn't much different as well (which is good for us). I have a good paying full-time job as well and play as a hobby. I cash out when I want to buy something my wife thinks I don't need (like new snowboard bindings), so I can say its from my poker winnings, haha. But I'm getting serious finally to build my roll like you and get to 50NL (hopefully) by April since I play such a small volume overall.
Dec. 8, 2014 | 7:45 a.m.
Sorry to hear about the negative variance downswing. Are you playing 25NL Zone or just regular 6-max? I used to play a mixture of zone & reg 6-max but I found Zone put me into a mindless zombie mode and was hurting my game. So now I play only regular 6-max; maybe that will help you too to help with staying focused.
What else helped me learn to focus that might help you is that I commented on my play while playing as if I was making a training video. Its kind of an odd thing to do, but it helps me focus on making good decisions and maintain my A game at the table.
Quick question; do you find the 25NL games to be tougher than 10NL on Bovada? I'm building my bankroll on Bovada as well currently at 10NL and crush 5NL and 10NL quite easily at ~13bb/100 over 110k sample. I'd be at 25NL already but keep withdrawing $. :-)
Dec. 7, 2014 | 10:13 a.m.
I have Holdem Indicator and I find it very useful. The basic HUD stats are beneficial when playing long sessions. I'd recommend it, as it will help you in tagging fish as well as identifying regs at the tables.
Dec. 7, 2014 | 10:06 a.m.
My suggestion is get a solid foundation is the basics of a basic TAG ABC style game, including a solid foundation in poker mathematical concepts as well. I recommend reading books, joining training sites, and posting on forums. A good beginner training site is GrinderSchool.com with their "How to Master" series. Some good basic books are "Poker Math that Matters", "Building a Bankroll", and "Easy Game".
Dec. 7, 2014 | 10 a.m.
Do you have HUD stats or notes on any of the players? Your flop play is really dependent upon your opponents' tendencies. If we know they are spazzy and will stack off lightly with TPTK/TPGK we aren't too concerned. MP's play thus far is really fishy calling the 3-bet pre-flop and cold calling the all-in OTF; he could very well be coming along with a small/medium pocket pair that hit a set.
If your opponent's aren't likely to stack off lightly, I doubt you are ever ahead. JJ, 55, and 88 are easily in their pre-flop 3-bet calling range. I think the only thing you beat here is AJ or KJ. I can't see either of your opponent's stacking off with anything other than AJ, KJ (if they are really bad), JJ, 88 or 55 OTF.
Dec. 7, 2014 | 4:52 a.m.
I think the flop call is okay, you're getting approximately 4:1 pot odds, and you have realistically 6 outs (2 aces not include the As, 3 jacks not including the Js, and 1 out for the BSFD...I could be wrong but I've read a BDFD is equivalent to about 1 out on the flop), giving you about 12% equity. Getting 5.5:1 you have decent implied odds assuming you will win if an A hits and are okay putting money in on the turn if a diamond rolls off. I also think a fold is fine as well.
Dec. 7, 2014 | 4:42 a.m.
I agree with your analysis; it all depends on how bad villain is and what he deems good enough to value bet post-flop. But I do think he still does have some bluffs in his range. I see it quite often on sites like Bovada with bad recreational players.
In regards to sets, I think we can easily put 22 and TT in his range; I'd discount QQ since we'd expect a 3-bet pre-flop most of the time.
Dec. 7, 2014 | 1:26 a.m.
I agree; he may be playing timidly with 22 OTT when hero gets re-raised.
Dec. 7, 2014 | 1:22 a.m.
I like over-jamming to look weak and get looked up by a bluff catcher, betting 1/3 pot for thin value and taking a bet / fold line, or just checking.
The problem with checking, however, is that you really don't know where you are at if villain bets the river. With a 1/3 sized pot bet, you can get looked up by a weaker A and protect yourself from having to call a larger value bet OTR if you checked.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 10:46 p.m.
If MP is a huge fish, I like a bit larger 3-bet (if he is rarely folding to 3-bet squeezes), but I think sizing is fine overall.
OTF, agreed with you, since MP is a a huge fish we should be going for max value here. Seeing how there is a flush and a straight draw I'd bet 80% pot or bigger here sizing it get the money all-in OTT.
OTT, I'm just jamming all-in here. MP has a pot-sized stack so just jam here. MP could have the flush or the straight with 64, but his range is really large, plus you have outs to hit the board OTR if he in fact has the flush or straight.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 10:41 p.m.
I think it is fine as well. Don't love it, but don't hate it the x/r. If villain is c-betting a large % of his BTN steals and folding to x/r's OTF, then this is a profitable move. If he isn't c-betting a lot, then I'm more inclined to not x/r here because he'll have some sort of equity that he will call your raise IP.
Agreed that I'd prefer the x/r with something like JQ, JT or the Ax of diamonds that blocks the nut flush draw.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 10:37 p.m.
Agreed, I think you have to call. You're not happy about the turn jam re-raise, but in a 3-bet pot villain could be putting you all-in OTT with 99+ (that you beat) getting you to fold AK/AQ.
If this wasn't a 3-bet pot, I'd be more inclined to fold but never folding in a 3-bet pot.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 10:33 p.m.
I like a bigger bet OTF, I think just over 1/2 pot-sized bet is a bit small for our semi-bluff. OTT, 3-bet is standard with the nut straight at the time. OTR, I'm never folding here. If villian had a set, I would expect a re-jam OTT on such a wet board. I think a pair + straight or flush draw or 2-pair is more likely. OTR, the over-jam looks weak. We have the nut straight and only lose to 9 combos of a full house if villain had a set (9x boat is possible but less likely), which we would expect a value bet, not a jam, so easy call. There are lots of combos of 2-pair, missed straight & flush draws that we beat.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 8:37 p.m.
I'd fold pre or 4-bet bluff K9s. Post flop, I think it is played fine.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 8:31 p.m.
I really don't like the 3-bet on the BTN unless CO is a really loose calling station fish that has been opening really wide and not folding to 3-bets. If his 3-bet continuing range is really tight, then with KQo you put yourself in a reverse implied odds situation. Having position on the BTN, KQo is a hand you can flat profitably to the CO's opening range; moreover, you are in position to the blinds if either decide to come along.
The flop c-bet is fine, I think a check / call line is fine as well. When CO donks out OTT after you 3-bet and c-bet the flop, I'd be weary of my hand strength. He could have 9x, AK, KQ, KJ, or the flush draw. I think the call is fine given you are getting 3:1 here. OTR, when he jams, you are at best hoping to chop the pot most of the time, so its probably a fold. The tough part is you are getting 3.5:1, so you only have to win 22% of the time to break even here.
Dec. 6, 2014 | 8:28 p.m.
+1 to larger 4-bet sizing, so you can get a pot-sized jam to put villain all-in OTF.
Dec. 5, 2014 | 8:45 p.m.
Pre-flop, given's that BB is 3-bet almost 18% and probably squeezing alot, I think it is a good spot to 4-bet bluff your 7's. Given that you are both deep, I think the call is fine.
OTF, I like the call with only 1 over. OTT, when he checks back, I'm confident you have the best hand a majority of the time. OTR, I think his 1/2 pot bet is most likely a thin value bet / bluff with A-high. Getting 3:1 I'm never folding here, so good call. I think you easily win 25% of the time here.
Dec. 5, 2014 | 8:36 p.m.
Agreed that you should be c-betting the flop for value. You can get called by many worse hands on such a connected, drawing board. So we miss value in a 3-bet pot when we hope to take the x/c line heads up.
For example, even though he is a 16/14, his BTN opening range is going to significantly wider than 14 PFR. So you can get called by 99, JJ, QQ, QJ, QK, AT, 9T, 98, etc, as well as flush draw combos that you beat. The combos of hands that beat you versus what you beat is significantly less at this point in the hand.
OTT, I think taking a x/c or b/f line is fine. OTR, when he checks the turn, I think betting for thin value and taking a b/f line is best for the same reasons other people have said.
Dec. 5, 2014 | 8:28 p.m.
A good introduction to poker mathematics is "Poker Math that Matters" by Owen Gaines. Then after you have a good grasp of the basics, "The Mathematics of Poker" by Bill Chen is the definitive guide.
Dec. 5, 2014 | 5:33 p.m.
Hi Cristian, I'm new to RunItOnce as well, but running -1bb/100 over 100k could just be negative variance combined with tilt. I think it is very easily feasible to run break even for such a sample size of hands. I can't imagine 25NL being that much more difficult than 16NL and if you were winning at 8bb/100 over 200k hands at that level, I think you can expect your 25NL win rate to creep up over the next 100k hands or so.
Welcome!
For Zoom micro stakes, Felipe Boianovsky's Moving Up series is good. He starts with Zoom 25nl and moves up to 100nl Zoom. Of course any of Galfond's Zoom videos as well. For overall theory stuff, I like Lucas Greenwood, James Hudson and Felipe Boianovsky theory videos.
In addition to all of the micro & small stakes 6-max videos on RIO, you might want to check out this free series on YouTube by a guy that's now a GrinderSchool coach; he did this 2nl Zoom series before becoming a GrinderSchool coach. Its free and on YouTube and I found it informative, so thought I'd share as well. Here's the link:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLHNmGrp13wX9dCNglJAFR4KUkzeSfDpos
Dec. 10, 2014 | 6:59 a.m.