a_zuzolo

Yeah, this seems like a pretty awkward spot. Do we think there is any merit in betting considerably bigger on the flop (like $12), and then shoving turn (for not much more than pot)?

I think I agree ^, but I am not exactly sure why :)

My instinct is that I would bet about 1/3 to 1/2 pot on this flop, planning on calling off, or shoving clean turns.

What bet sizing would you go with here on the flop?

I assume we want to get some value from mid pocket pairs and all jacks?

I am wondering...in a spot like this, where the BB only has about 10bb's going to the flop, and if we are always going jam turn no matter what, why not bet a little bit bigger on the flop? Say 4bb instead of 2bb?

Basically, I am just wondering what we benefit by betting small on this flop, in this situation, given the SPR?

Thanks!

Yes, against certain opponent types, I'm sure this line is OK, but in general, I don't love it.

This may be an oversimplified way of viewing this, but given our strong equity in this hand, I just feel like betting the flop is going to be a much more profitable way to play this hand, as opposed to semi-bluff raising the turn on a four card straight board...

If he does have a 5, he may shove on turn, and then you lose the ability to realize your flush equity and win a big pot. Furthermore, if he does just have one pair, then he may still fold that to a river bet (and that way you at least get to realize your flush equity)

I think it is fine. I definitely would not check this turn. And I think your sizing is fine on the turn...could possibly go a little smaller, but not much...want to set up a good river jam size that can still get called easily.

In general, especially if you are not used to playing re-buy tournaments, I wouldn't alter your play too much...

One way to think of is it that during the rebuy period, for any spot that is already close, you basically want to take the more aggressive / high-variance / getting-it-in option.

Now that doesn't mean that you get in 50bbs every time you have AJ, but it just means that if you are in what you would normally consider a tough spot with JJ or AK for example, you probably want to err on the side of gambling during those rebuy levels.

In short, taking a likely flip is not nearly as detrimental to your tournament EV as it would be in the early stages of a freezeout.

I have a few takeaways from this HH and analysis...Granted, these are just my assumptions about what you are thinking, so obviously I may be wrong...

• It is possible that you may be putting too much emphasis on his "min-bets". It is a limped SB vs BB pot, so a min bet on the flop is half pot, and on turn it is 1/4 pot. Neither of these things are unusual / weird / out-of-line, so I would just make sure that you are not using any pre-conceived notions about "min-betting" to influence your perception of your opponent's play/range here

• I think it may also be a mistake to completely discount all Ax from your opponent's SB limping range. I think many players will limp SB with lots of Ax combos.

Those were my biggest takeaways. As played, yes, I probably just give up on River.

In general, I don't love using a limped BvB hand to make tricky bluff raises, or an overbet river bluff, because I think it is harder to accurately range assess in these spots.

Agreed, I think this is an easy fold. The above analysis is good. A more simplistic way to think about this spot would be to imagine the hands that both these opponents would have to turn over, in order for you to be happy with your call...Even if/when they are shoving very wide ranges, you are rarely going to be in a good spot here.

I have also found that the 23ish BB re-shove from the MP player is going to be way more heavily weighted towards hands that crush you (99-JJ), as well as some flips (AQ, AK), as opposed to hands that you beat (77 or worse). I think most players will either flat or fold to an UTG raise, when they have mid/small pocket pairs with over 20bbs.

hmmm...I think the post-flop analysis above ^ may be a bit off, as Hero did not check-raise...he called the initial bet, and then called the proceeding all-in.

I think I actually find a fold here. Long story short, we are getting roughly 2 to 1 at the time of call (which would be close), but we have no reason to be sure that the other player will also call off behind us.

Furthermore, if he does, than I think there is a very high chance, given this action, that one of the two players will also have also have 6 (76, 56, 46), or even a made straight.

HELPFUL SIDE NOTE: this HH may have been a bit confusing to decipher due to your incorrect use of "re-raise" a couple of times. Preflop you could not have re-raised (only raised), as it was limped around to you. And on the flop, UTG+2 did not re-raise; he simply raised. just for future reference :)

A lot going on here...My first response is simply that I think you are putting far too much weight into a 38 hand sample. I would literally ignore the stats with that short of a sample.

I also think that even if those stats were based on a larger sample, this still wouldn’t be a fold. You are just far too high up in your range here, and as free nachos stated about, without the Ad in your hand, your opponent just has too many possible hands that you crush for me to ever consider folding this.

I think the turn decision on which hands to call / fold / jam is way more interesting. Against a tight opponent, and when getting such a good price, and in position, I don’t think I would just be jamming all of my weak flush draws. Maybe just the flush draws that are ace high, or also have a pair or straight draw? I’m not totally sure.

But yeah, as played, I’m never folding (and definitely not based on stats over a small 38 hand sample :)

Yeah, I think this is close. I think betting or checking are both fine.

I think I would lean towards checking against most opponents. I just don’t think he’s going to have a ton of overpairs in this spot after checking back flop. So I think his range on the river is more polarized, and our hand is still susceptible to the high end of that polarized range. So I think I would rather bluff catch against all of the high spades that he may bluff with, while at the same time minimizing damage against the occasional 8x, flopped flush, or turned/riverbed boat.

Agreed ^

Against a sticky opponent, on this board, I'm just looking to bet 3 streets here.

I think that too many of his likely hands (that we beat) will not want to bet this turn when checked to (66, 99, TT, 98s, 67s, TJ, etc.) for fear of getting check-raised, but will for sure call us for at least one more street...So I think checking this turn loses us too much value overall.
Plus, stacks set up nicely for a river shove.

hmmm...I was actually gonna bring this up in one of your other posts, but this one seems more appropriate:

I am very curios about your 4Betting tendencies at these stakes...

Based on the 6 hands that you are asking about here, I am presuming that you have a pretty wide 4Betting rage...much wider than I would think is good at these stakes...Not saying that I am "right", that's why I'm asking :)

Point being, I would very rarely (maybe never?) find myself in this spot with 3 or 4 of those hands...

What is your experience with how players are responding to 4bets at these stakes?

Sorry to derail your question a bit, but I just think it is an important part of the equation.

I really like the explanation above from James...

Short answer: at these stakes, I am folding this almost all of the time, and feeling fine about it.

Sure, QQd or TTd would make nice bluff shoves here, but I just don't think enough players are doing this at these stakes.

Something else to consider: If we are giving this opponent credit for turning a decent number of made hands into a bluff here, then I think we may also have to give him credit to possibly also shove QT for value here.

In terms of your question of bet/calling vs. check/raising the turn...I think I prefer a check raise...

Without having run any exact math on the spot, given the SPR, I just don't think we are in good enough shape to want to bet / call off here.

When you consider all the hands that he would not raise the flop with, but then raise turn here with, I think we will find that our A and Q outs may not be all that live...and we can probably discount about one heart from our outs, on average, in that scenario as well.

I prefer to let my opponent take some stabs on the turn, and allow for a spot where I may actually have some fold equity still.

So I generally prefer a check / raise, but it is definitely largely dependent on his turn tendencies.

Completely agree, this can never be a fold.

But just to add some more specifics to that advice:
- If he is a solid player, he is probably not opening any/many K6 or K7 from UTG.
- He may conceivably bet this way with KQ, AA, QQ, AQhh, AJhh, or any other random bluffs...all of which you beat...he can also easily have AK too
- Yes, he may show up with 66, 77, JJ, or KJ here sometimes, but you are simply far too high in your range to fold here...In other words, if you fold AK here, what are you calling with?

Agreed with Ben and Sneaky Feet...

Definitely raise turn. Players at low stakes make bets like this all of the time when they fear their opponent will put them in a tough spot with a (probably bigger) bet. He's gonna have a ton of draws on this turn, and lots of QJ, KJ, AJ, QQ, KK, many of which he may get in on the turn.

As played, I probably can't fold river

I'd have to call at least one street, especially with the backdoor flush draw, and especially on a board like this that I think will have a very high cbet frequency from our opponent.

I would also assume that his preflop raising range here is extra wide, as he is isolating a likely weak player who has limped utg.

Agreed that the river bet is odd enough that I probably find a call.

Although I think I'd adjust a couple of things in your range breakdown...
- I don't think he has 33, 44, or 88 hardly ever. Closing the action on flop and turns with calls would just be very unusual for most players (especially at these stakes) with a set, against an opponent who has shown such aggression
- I also think that all of the Ax of spades hands can easily be in his range here, especially A2s, A4s, and A5s, unless we have reason to believe that this player does open those hands from UTG.

I agree with both of the above comments. I would definitely be cbetting this flop more times than not, and possibly close to 100%.

And as freenachos said, you may be over-bluffing this turn spot if you raise with most/all gutshots.

I think the only real value hands that consistently check back that flop and then raise river would be TT and some T9s ?

I think most KT and QJ would bet the flop.

And obviously all of your semi-bluffs miss on this river, so it would be quite ambitious to try to get him to fold top pair + here.

I think I would pretty much always continue to barrel in this spot after check / raising.

He is just going to have so many hands that he would check back turn with but would call a turn bet with....all of his overpairs / top pairs with a heart will call. In addition, the ones without a heart will fold on the river if another heart comes, so you lose a street of value from those hands on the times where the fourth heart comes.

There are also plenty of straight draws on this board, which he may put into your check-raise range (QJ, KQ, J8) and make him more likely to call once more.

So yeah, all things considered, I think betting turn is best.

I think the answer to your second question, of whether or not to call if we check and he bets, is definitely a yes. AK is simply too strong to consider folding here

But I am not as sure on sizing on the river. Opponent has roughly a pot-sized bet left, correct?

I'm curious what others suggest for sizing on this river. My guess is that no size can be too bad here, but I just don't know which one is optimal.

Thoughts???

hmmm...I am definitely no expert when it comes to a close range analysis like that (perhaps others can weigh in)...

But I definitely don't think we should assume much more K's in our opponent's range vs J's in this spot. For a button open calling a (slightly) less than 3x 3Bet from the SB, my assumption is that any differnece between Kxs and Jxs would be pretty negligible.

In fact, if I had to guess, I would think there'd be slightly MORE Jx in his range...Simply because most KK and a decent amount of AK will 4Bet. And it may even be possible that hands like KTo or K9o will fold, but JTo and J9o may call (definitely not sure about that part).

But in short: I doubt he has much more Kx vs Jx, if at all, and it is possible he has more Jx, imo.

I agree with both of the above comments. If you are having doubts about these types of spots, it would definitely be worth taking a look at all of your turn check raise spots, and see what your range and results look like.

I'm also curious about the flop sizing here (slightly less than 1/3 pot). Are you betting this size with all your hands (would you bet this size with QQ) on a somewhat draw-heavy flop? It's possible that you are betting smaller on the flop with your drawing hands? Just something to look out for.

Yeah, I don't love the way this hand was played. If your reasoning for the possible turn raise is that he has enough air in his range, than I think you can probably call this river.

So as played, I'd probably call the river.

But I think I prefer just folding the turn, when we don't pick up any additional equity.

Yeah, I agree with James...

Sure, you may find some opponents who will call you here with QJ, but for the most part, you are simply making it too easy for any reasonable player to find folds with all sorts of hands that they would call a 3/4 pot bet with..

All Qx hands, all flush draws, straight draws, pair + straight draws, etc.

Stacks here set up nicely for a decent size bet on the turn, followed by a river jam.

I completely agree with Front here...

As played, I call down. Villain could easily have a slow-played 4x here.

I think I like flatting the turn. And agreed that flop is fine as either bet or check.

I agree that I prefer a flop raise here, especially on the flush draw board. Would be slightly more inclined to flat a rainbow board.

Worth noting is that if you have no history with this player (ie, he presumably doesn’t know you or your skill level), then I would be even more inclined to raise the flop. The reason being, I think many players at these stakes bet small in spots like this, partly because they think/know that bad players may play worse against a small bet. Essentially, he may be hoping to induce a raise from you here, so if you have the nuts, you should oblige :)

In addition, as you have stated, his preflop line is so often AA or KK, and on this board, there are so many action-killing turns for you (any spade, Jack, or Ten).

Agreed. Messy spot, but I’d have a really hard time folding this flop, especially with the backdoor draws.

Easier said then done :)

They are almost 300 blinds deep.

I think raising the flop is fine, but so is calling (agree with Krzysztof above).

I also agree with betting bigger on the turn.

I’m not sure I love such a huge jam on the river here though. Given his line, I just don’t think he has very many sets at all. And his random two pair hands may easily find a fold to such a large raise.