ZzzzzzzzZZzzzzzzz
18 points
I check with this particular runout and am happy to win against non flush hands. Its hard to fold out a flush these days :D And if you ever have a blocker hand you want to give up with this is a perfect example.
Its also worth noting that your sizing on both flop and turn might influence villain's calling range making it stronger.
May 9, 2016 | 3:42 p.m.
Even with a fd on baord I see no merit in raising is this big of a pot after you got raised on the flop that your 3b range nails and on which you have PLENTY of hands you want to continue and stack off with. I see this as a great hand to call turn.
May 9, 2016 | 3:31 p.m.
I don't see how him being very aggresive is of any relevance here.
1. His sqz range has a massive advantage on this flop, he might be as light as 12% preflop but his best broadway hands and AA are still there.
2. His sizing says your FE=~0.
3. Against his stackoff range you don't stand more than 30-31% eq provided that he sq light pre. The less he sq the less eq you have and it does matter.
I call and let worse part of his range bleed on the turn. I see this as a kind of spot that's quite hard to make perfect play against unk who seems to be aggresive, but raising against his sizing with this particular hand even less than 100bb deep seems spewy to me. If you fold out any hand whatsoever then it must be some garbage you have massive advantage against. I'd stackoff against someone I saw spewing money.
May 9, 2016 | 3:23 p.m.
How can he be folding Kxxx without an ace? Against 3% 4bet range as you sugested that consists of AA, AKK, KK$ds (3.24%) he's eq with a hand like you suggested eg KQT9ss is almost 36%? How can he be folding that with SPR<1?
How does it make sense to made this calculations if your 4b range is 3%? Even is yoiu add some ds rundowns like QTJ9ds and couple best hands that are not AA or does not contain a K its a very small fraction of your range therefore how do you plan to exploit your opponent by betting small on this structure? He's aware of your range.
Oct. 8, 2015 | 3:49 p.m.
And what is the reasoning behind CR-aising exactly? You say there is no reason to bet but at the same time you provide no explanation to why you would CR. How is that logical (not to mention helpful) to anybody? How wide you thing a laggish reg is going to bet here? This is what I consider a wet flop, one on which many, many preflop hand combinations hit hard enough to continue. What makes you think one could simply get away with betting this flop 3way and stealing it easily? What is the major argument for CR being more +EV than leading?
Thanks.
Aug. 6, 2015 | 10:37 a.m.
Is it possible that you could make your next zoom videos with 2 tables?. Four tables is far too much both for you to comment and play perfectly at the same time (sorry ;p) as well for a watcher to keep up with all the action and gain something valuable from it. This refers obviously to all coaches. Four zoom tables just doesn't make any sense from educational point of view.
Dec. 1, 2014 | 6:27 p.m.
Very good content. Would love to see more videos from you that include omaha ranger based analysis.
Janne: I think what Jarcon meant is that since it's hanrd for him to believe that YOU make money by defending with the bottom part of your range (exluding unplayable hands like trips and 4ofakind) it would be nice to see YOUR database confirming that YOU are actually making money on it ei losing less than 1bb per hand.
In actuality we would also have to take under consideration the fact that if someone defends close to 100% and therefore makes "stealing" impossible, other players will be less inclined to open very wide, which automatically generates some value.
Nov. 26, 2014 | 7:56 p.m.
- Have you considered the odds that Hero is giving villain OTR + the fact that some of the time he will be already dominated OTT?
- Against someone who is "solid" ie does not fold too much preflop BVB is this a +EV open? Doubt that.
Nov. 25, 2014 | 12:25 p.m.
Hard to say anything without his postflop stats. OP does not make sense, so i suppose its pretty safe to fold the riv, unless you have some notes or other reasons to assume he might go for a tricky line with fd+overs.
Whats your 3b from BTN? Id say most ppl's flatting range OTBN is PP heavy. Your call on the flop might be as light as A-high but thats about it, rather than that (or bare fd but this one include pair+overs a lot of the time) your range is showdow value-have so to speak. Conciously or not most ppl realize that and very rarely go for a bluffy line that reps very thin value range.
I would need a serious reason to call the riv. Might feel a little exploitative, but I'm pretty sure at PLo50 zoom its not.
Feb. 4, 2014 | 9:57 p.m.
Thank you for your deep analysis. You havent answer the question though.
Feb. 4, 2014 | 9:23 p.m.
You mean betting like 9-10$? I hope you dont mean betting with the intention of be-tfolding. Im not betfolding ever against this kind of player. Betfolding would be terrible considering we have about 25% eq against jacks, which should be the top of his range. and after betting around 10$ we need about 30% eq against his range to call based on the pot odds.
I don't think pocket pairs below 88 are in his range. Its a rare thing to see just about anyone sqz with these, even the most aggressive players. I'm pretty sure he flats small pocket pairs for 2.2bb preflop nearly 100% of the time.
We're not hoping to fold out a pair lol. That's beyond madness. If I thought I could fold out a pair here by betting the flop there would be no posting. What I'm asking about is optimal play/line against his range on this board texture considering his tendencies .
Feb. 4, 2014 | 6:34 p.m.
Hey
Was wondering what is the optimal play on the flop?
6 handed game NL50
UTG halfstack 25/21/7 opens for 2.2 bb. He opens very wide UTG, 20+%
CO reg with 100bbs calls
BTN: player thats looks like an loose spewy fish 3bets to 10.5bb
His stats after 50+ hands hands: 41/30/3b=29, he sqzed once after 1 opportunity.
Hero is in the SB with As Qd. I hate calling here and letting 2 more players in, so decide to clickback to 21bbs. I feel like no one is going to 5b anything worse than AQ ever here, including BTN. I expect a player like him to call with close to 100% of his range, maybe exept AK that he shoves allin preflop for sure. Not sure about monsters like QQ+. I feel like he ships them quite often too, because players like him do not tend to be tricky, but overaggressive. His fold to 3b=0%.
Folding preflop is obviously ok considering there was an open UTG, but I feel like there is value in playing with BTN. Besides, we're risking 11$ to win like 8$. Does anyone fold here?
BB folds, BTN instacalls.
BTN afq flop 38%, af 2, WTSD 44%, fold2cbet=0% (0/3)
Flop: 9s 8h 3s. Pot is now 25$ (50bb) and we have exactly 39$
Hero? What is the optimal play and why?
Feb. 4, 2014 | 4:01 p.m.
3bet preflop, flop ok, turn clear bet for value, unless you have some strong reads that make you believe fishy player is going to stab light 3 way.
Jan. 14, 2014 | 6:13 p.m.
How is bare NFD a mediocre hand in that spot when playing BB vs BTN?
Jan. 10, 2014 | 3:11 p.m.
Well Tom Im patiantly waiting for a piece of evidence that this winrate is achievable
Jan. 10, 2014 | 12:20 a.m.
Results? :D
Jan. 9, 2014 | 1:09 a.m.
graph?
Jan. 8, 2014 | 10:01 p.m.
And I think youre drunk
Jan. 8, 2014 | 3:50 p.m.
Show me one graph of a regular at PLO25, PLO50 or PLO100 with reasonable sample (lets say min 100k hands) that's been winning 5-10bb/100 at zoom.
Jan. 8, 2014 | 3:49 p.m.
What range of hands have you assigned on the turn?
Sept. 7, 2013 | 6:18 p.m.
So what kind of range have you assigned?
Sept. 6, 2013 | 9:02 p.m.
Sorry didnt specify I ment flop raise-call get it in range considering he's got a player left to act.
Aug. 30, 2013 | 8:28 a.m.
So is he a reg or what? 70 vpip seems fishy, but you're assuming he wants to be balanced.
Aug. 30, 2013 | 8:26 a.m.
What range of hands do you give him after he raises you on the flop 300 deep with 2 players to act?
Aug. 29, 2013 | 8:36 p.m.
What kind of raise-call range to you give BTN here?
Aug. 29, 2013 | 8:25 p.m.
Thanks. Sorry for not making it clear. We're playing 100bb deep here. Whats your assumption of his raise-shove range here? What do you do when called?
Aug. 25, 2013 | 9:35 p.m.
Playing 4 handed
Hero is BB with Ac Tc 4s Js
BTN is playing 30/24/12 over 1k hands, good regular who plays not very many tables and fights over pots, doesnt let go easily, knows when to stab or raise, knows when to realize eq etc. No particular history though.
BTN opens, hero 3bets from BB
flop: (pot 20bb) 3d 7s Ts
What is your plan on this flop considering Hero stats are 26/20/8 and villain knows that.
If you check what is your intention and why?
If you bet what is your intention and why? What is your plan on the turn when called?
Thanks.
Aug. 25, 2013 | 5:33 p.m.
I put him on a set and fold. Whats this topic about?
Aug. 24, 2013 | 1:30 p.m.
I like raising the flop for value if you expect him be tilting and to call a lot. Turn is a blank. Bet big.
What do you base that on? That it adds value?
May 10, 2016 | 7:11 a.m.