Yaphet-Kotto

Against a check back OTF Snowie recommends that BB lead 54% of the the time on the 2s turn for 1/2 psb. Interestingly, it has BB check-calling turned nutflushes around half the time, and never check-raising them. It's barely check-raising anything...only 2.5% of his total range.

Using the "scenario analyzer" I set up the hand such that BTN checked back the flop (without assigning any hole cards) and called a 2x psb from Villain OTT. The range advice is to call (and never raise) with 20% of his full range; any Ax he checked back, any gutshot or pair with a spade, two pair and turned sets. Then, against a 3x psb shove on a river 6c, BTN is calling 76+, or 12% of his range.

Thanks for your response, Steve.

In my OP I was drawing on some things Sauce has said in videos and perhaps I'm misapplying them. Specifically, I remember one of his PLO vids on leggopoker, in which he said something like "our worst nightmare is when check here with a range that never contains [diamonds]. Then our opponent can happily bet any flush or two pair with relative impunity".

I'm paraphrasing there, but the idea was that our strategy as a whole -- to a clairvoyant or even just observant opponent -- would be imbalanced.

I guess I just get bogged down wrestling with what "balanced play" really means. Is it synonymous with GTO, where there are no loss leaders, and every combination is played in the most +EV fashion, or does involve protecting your different ranges, such that you can show up with many different hand types regardless of the line you take?

Hi Jhuntter,

Poker Snowie is, according to their website, "Powerful neural network poker software which will improve your No Limit Texas Hold'em game." However, i don't know if its strategy is any good in this case.

Yes, the software recommends cbetting every 2card flushdraw combo.in BTN's opening range, which to me is exploitable. It does advise checking flop with some KsX hands, but that will only benefit us the ~6% of the time the board runs out with a 4-flush,

In short, if GTO play is unexploitable against a clairvoyant opponent, then Snowie's advice cannot be GTO in this instance. If we told someone that we never had a 2card flush draw when we checked behind on the flop, that opponent could punish us with huge bets when the flush card came in, knowing that our range is capped at a turned two pair.

I'm pretty sure I've got the whole picture here, but I wanted some input from RIOers to make sure I wasn't missing something.

have to agree. more dude on dude ego stroking than i'd like

i believe he's using Holdem Indicator. Afaik it's the only HUD that works on Bovada

sweet16 conventional wisdom is to 3bet a linear (depolarized) range when in the blinds because the BTN, being in position, has more incentive to flat

Maybe I wasn't clear. Look at James Hudson's picture on this page and notice how it's labeled http://www.runitonce.com/pro-training/videos/hand-and-crev-review/

Looks like all pros are listed as Elite in the portrait image that accompanies a specific video. Small thing, but I figured I'd mention it

RIO staff all on vacation, apparently

11:58 you say easy double x/c with AcTx on KJ52cc. Are you basing this on his play in the other hand where he two barreled and gave up? it seems like, without that info, this would a standard c/f OTT, unless you're planning to lead club rivers or something

wondering the same about oddsen, rast, hac and z

Genius! 

why raise flop? especially if the fishy players are waiting to act behind you?

Didn't mean to put words in your mouth, bc you're right, you didn't say that we don't get bluff raised. I was just assuming you had the same read I have on the micro-stakes player pool: they're generally not bluff-raising enough, if at all. 

You're also right that players at this stake may raise 98s here or 99 thinking that we missed the flop, which makes our life tough if they're also raising Ax and some bluffs.

Good points about our blockers vs K-hi calls and not needing protection. 

And just to be clear, I was kind of playing devil's advocate in my initial post. Against a competent opponent, I vastly prefer a check with all our KK combos and with most of our QQ-99 as well :) 

like robin said, it seems odd that he didn't reraise flop with his sets, straights and two pair, so it really feels like he's trying to buy himself a cheap river with one of the many pair plus straight draws in his range. however, you're around a 3:2 dog if he only getting it in with with JJ, TT, 88, Q9s 97s, JT, J8s AKc, AJc, KJc, QJc, QTc, JT, J9, 98. So rather than shove, I think I'd prefer to keep his range wider and see if he shuts down OTR.  

OTR, it seems more likely that he's got two pair+ given that he's still betting. Prob sigh fold unless he's an over-aggro donk with AJ, KJ etc

Not sure I follow your logic, Chael. If we expect the majority of the player pool to raise an Ace OTF, but not raise as a bluff, wouldn't that make this a slam-dunk bet/fold?

Not a fan with KQo specifically, since you block some of the hands you'd be trying to get value from, but I think it's fine as a bluff. If you got to the river with AK, AJ or KJ this way I think they'd be good candidates, because again, you block the AQ, KQ, QJ hands that might pick you off.  

However, you're really just repping TT, T8s, and maybe 88 going for a turn c/r, so you certainly can't bluff with all combos of missed broadways.  

At these stakes, exploitation is the name of the game. You need to recognize the most common ways in which your opponents are leaking money and tailor your strategy to exploit it. 

So, what's one of the big leaks 25nl players exhibit? Playing too straightforwardly, and calling too light on all streets, especially the early ones. Part of the reason for the latter is the relatively small amount of money being played for. Instead of thinking "is this hand worth a call for 3BBs?" (like a competent player would), they think "is this hand worth $0.75?" When you bet the flop for $1.25, their thought process is "well i missed the flop, but I have a gutshot/two overcards, and he only bet $1.25. Who cares about $1.25?"

Now, how do you exploit players who play straightforwardly, call too light pre-flop and on the flop, but don't usually bet themselves without a strong hand? Raise and bet bigger until they show aggression. 

So pre-flop I make it $1.00 to exploit their tendency to call too loosely. On the flop I bet $3.00 to exploit their looseness and make them fold out their equity, with the knowledge that they're unlikely to raise as a bluff or slowplay a hand better than AA (either of which could put me in a tough spot). 

The turn is an ugly card, filling two OESDs and a gutshot and making a couple two pair possibilities. However, if you know they're calling the flop with gutshots, two overs and a flush draw or any pair, this becomes an easy bet for protection/value. Their ranges are just too wide and too likely to continue for you to give a free card. I'm tempted to bet all-in here for two reasons (1) they're likely to shrug and call with any pair plus open-ender (98, 97, 75, 75) or pair plus gutshot (T8, T7) and (2) to avoid tough spots on a lot of rivers. 

On the river you made your biggest mistake. There is absolutely no value in raising when one of your villains bets into you. They're straightforward remember? What do you expect them to call two streets with, bet into you when the flush comes in, and then call when you raise that is worse than AA? 

Hope this helps. GL in the future. 

we can't CR, being IP. also, there are no flushes possible

can't really comment as i haven't read either in its entirety, but i did read an excerpt from quantum poker that seemed on point. you can find it here: http://www.sixpeppers.com/#!folding-ranges-and-bet-sizing/cyn4

i'd like your flop check better with AA or QcQx, but it's still fine some of the time. i'm in your camp Dan; i'd be checking the majority of my range in this spot vs anyone good. 

however, once he bets, i think a raise is in order. i'd prefer to c/c with AcAx or QcQx and raise with combos that don't contain a club. 

as played, you need to start getting more money in somehow, esp vs someone you think might shut down OTR, so I like the turn c/r. If you're truly checking the flop with a balanced range, you can have some club draws and weak Qx or Ax that will play better as a bluff. 

OTR I jam. You said yourself that "it makes sense to CR nuts and bluffs" OTT, so why bet any less than AI?

yes, raise AI. it's pretty close though; I doubt a call is losing you much EV as played

Villain's betsize sure doesn't look like it's ever a pot controlled Ax, so you're only targeting Jx. Furthermore, you're only repping 10 combos, and that's before we consider card removal; it drops to 6 when villain holds a J. If he can come up with 3 combos of bluffs for you he's got a breakeven call

my first thought is that if he's any good and was going for a turn c/r, he'd overbet the river with his nutted hands. 

However, he shouldn't really expect much of your range to bet on that turn, since it gives alot of your hands pair plus draw that would rather check and realize their equity/get to SD. So the turn check looks like pot control, and the river sizing looks line like thin value, making me want to raise river. if he's truly capped here, you should choose a big bet size to polarize your range. 

btw, i wouldnt worry much about your kicker; the only 4x he might have is A4s and there's only one combo

pretty sure he's referring to flop, and i believe it's because:

villain can't rep the nuts

this texture shouldnt get barreled as a pure bluff too often if villain just calls

turn and river can drastically affect relative hand strengths

hero's range doesnt contain many random suited hands, and the ones he does have are often to the nuts

in short, villain should prefer to bluffcatch with everything rather than inflate the pot OOP when Hero has a range advantage

Your logic as stated is completely flawed. You'd rather see nothing over a marginal something? 

If you meant to say that you'd rather wait for a excellent video than have him be punctual with a mediocre one, then fair enough. I can agree with that. 

go-karting is always fun, unless you do actual car-racing. 

hollywood park has horse races if you're into that sort of thing. 

hit up the beach, rent a bicycle/skateboard/whatever you won't fall off of and cruise the boardwalk

i see that, but i have no way of knowing if it is essential or elite. even if said video does turn out to be essential, it still doesnt answer the question of why there was no essential vid for may

i seriously doubt it's optimal, but may be profitable against weak-tight lineups