WallE
1 points
Discussing this before modelling it probably wasn't the best idea :) but the discussion has been interesting so far. :S
I was the BT, SB was a weaker reg which is why more Ax were included.
My assumption was that adding a few combos of weak Ax as a turn raise range which is heavily exploitable and I suppose we can balance with some trips which is somewhat meaningless as we are still capped adds to our overall EV than simply folding every Ax we need to fold on the turn.
Considering it's an exploitive play the balance discussion is largely moot but was mainly wondering what people's thoughts were on what SB would fold to a raise and the expectations for BTs range.
Basically - maintaining a river shoving range seems necessary whether we are shoving over a tb or against a check - but keeping all Ax to the river is probably choking our EV somewhat and is the whole point of the turn play - which is more relevant considering were 150bb+
Oct. 17, 2014 | 10:52 p.m.
This is exactly the type of video I need <3
Oct. 17, 2014 | 6:28 p.m.
Okay let's change the SB xr and bet range to:
AhAs, AhAc, AsAc, 8h8c, AhKh, AsKs, AcKc, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, KsTs, QdTd, JdTd, Kd9d, Ks9s, Td9d, 9h8h, 9c8c, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh
and BT turn range to:
TT-99, 77-22, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs, 8d8h, KsQs, KcQc, AdJd, AhJh, KdJd, KhJh, KsJs, QdJd, QhJh, QsJs, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, KsTs, KcTc, QsTs, QcTc, JdTd, JhTh, JsTs, Ad9d, Ah9h, Ac9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Js9s, Ts9s, Tc9c, Td8d, Th8h, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9s7s, 9c7c, 8d7d, 8h7h, 8d6d, 8h6h, 7s6s, 7c6c, Ad5d, Ah5h, Ac5c, 7s5s, 7c5c, 6s5s, 6c5c, Ad4d, Ah4h, Ac4c, 6s4s, 6c4c, 5s4s, 5c4c, Ad3d, Ah3h, Ac3c, Ad2d, Ah2h, Ac2c, AdJh, AdJs, AhJd, AhJs, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs
BT only has trips 6% of the time - and would be raising a couple combos of Ax depending on his raise sizing.
However if we can get SB to fold AK and AQ - can an argument be made for raising more Ax?
Oct. 17, 2014 | 5:58 p.m.
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $78.15 (156.3 bb)
BB: $50 (100 bb)
CO: $98.82 (197.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $49.75 (99.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN
CO folds, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($2.25) Ts Kh 8s (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.79, BB raises to $3.50, Hero calls $2.71
Turn: ($9.25) Qc (2 players)
BB bets $6.47, Hero calls $6.47
River: ($22.19) As (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33...
Assumptions:
BT
-opening very wide
-cbetting high freq
-not folding much to xr
BB
-defending high frequency
-xr-ing high freq
-betting turn with whole xr range
BT PFR:
BB XR:
BT Call Turnbet:
River Equity Breakdown:
Ideas:
- If BB is never checking a flush we should be over-betting whole range
- How often does BB need to be checking a flush for us to balance our betting range?
Considerations:
- our equity is 75% = checking back our whole range .75*22 = 16.5
- if BB is never checking a flush and always folding then EVoverbetting = 22
How often does BB have to x a Flush (check/call a flush) for us to balance a betting range with flushes and bluffs?
This is where I'm getting a little stuck.
BB has a flush 12% of the time
BT has a flush 15.5% of the time
BT has some lower flushes - both have nut flushes
Maybe I'm over-complicating it but hitting a wall here - is there a way of modelling this without it getting too complex? Any input appreciated. Thanks.
Oct. 17, 2014 | 5:46 p.m.
Thanks for the responses so far:
Before posting what I think let's assign BT the following 3B calling range
TT-22, AJs-A9s, A5s-A2s, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 54s, AJo-ATo, KQo
OttoPilot - I agree - should've likely prefaced by saying let's assume SB is a weaker reg - what do you think is a better barreling cutoff - AJ?
Oct. 17, 2014 | 4:25 p.m.
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
SB: $95.26 (190.5 bb)
BB: $60.92 (121.8 bb)
UTG: $33.73 (67.5 bb)
MP: $18.46 (36.9 bb)
CO: $20.25 (40.5 bb)
BTN: $75.28 (150.6 bb)
Preflop:
3 folds, BTN raises to $1, SB raises to $3.50, BB folds, BTN calls $2.50
Flop: ($7.50) Ad 8d 8s (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, BTN calls $4.50
Turn: ($16.50) Js (2 players)
SB bets $11.55, BTN raises to $28.50, SB folds
Results: $39.60 pot ($1.98 rake)
Final Board: Ad 8d 8s Js
SB mucked and lost (-$19.55 net)
BTN mucked 7h Ah and won $37.62 ($18.07 net)
1. What do you think SB should be double-barreling?
2. What do you think BT should be raising on the turn?
I'll start with an answer for 1:
Assumptions
SB - 3betting range
77+, A2s+, K8s+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, A9o+, KJo+
SB - double-barreling range
AhAs, AhAc, AsAc, AhKd, AhKs, AhKc, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQh, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AhJd, AhJc, AsJd, AsJh, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AsTd, AsTh, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, AhKh, AsKs, AcKc, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, AcJc, KdJd, QdJd, AhTh, AsTs, AcTc, KdTd, KsTs, QdTd, JdTd, Ah9h, As9s, Ac9c, Kd9d, Ks9s, Td9d, 9h8h, 9c8c, 8h8c, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s
That is:
- raw 2pair >= A9 (57 combos)
- trips = 98s (2 combos)
- full house >= A8s (5 combos)
- 4 of a kind = 88 (1 combo)
- nutflush draw + 2pair >= A2s (10 combos)
- 2x flush draw >= T9s (11 combos)
The above is a bit wide and assumes some suited broadways are cbetting flop and others aren't - the ones that did also picked up backdoor flushdraws - also that most Aces are betting the flop which they may not be.
So that's what may be a standard double barrel range - now on to number 2 - what should BT be raising?
Awesome thanks for your analysis.
Our calling ranges are a bit different - although mine would also include some of the bigger 8xs as well in practice if villain is 3-betting wide enough.
I'm confused as to why you would want to fold weaker top pairs on the turn but raise KQ - my initial thinking was that raising some weak top pairs that can't call would fold out better pairs potentially while getting some value from villain flush draws that decide to call our raise - and we use that threshold of combos to balance our turn trips.
KQ's have blockers to flushdraws and AK AQ however our Ax have blockers much the same and blocking some flush draws I don't think is a positive here when we're bluffing.
Oct. 18, 2014 | 5:08 a.m.