Wahoozle

If the game is good it's 0% this one player could make it -EV overall. If you're a winning player, his edge over you can't be greater than your overall edge vs. the rest of the table.

"yeah, every adjustment I make, I anticipate him making on me as well."

IMO this line of thinking is flawed. It is probably based on a very successful past history of hands played vs. hero but variance can be a very large part of that.

For instance:

you = top of your range, villain crushes you or folds
you = bottom of your range, villain makes you fold or calls off light

You said you take shots at 10-25, so your sample size is more than likely very small vs. villain.

Just think about the individual scenarios that have come up and figure out what you could have done differently. Maybe your frequencies are off because of the fear this player inspires in you. The only way he's allowed inside your head is if you let him in. Welcome the challenge this provides you and come up with solutions to help your overall game vs. this type of player, as he won't be the last you will encounter.

I think the turn is a raise for sure.

1) his sizing isn't indicative of a very strong hand
2) we potentially fold out his 6x, 33, and 44 type hands. even if we don't, we still have decent equity heading into the river.
3) he can call with hands we are doing very well against like worse flush draws, 78, etc.
4) on unimproved river we should generally check back, only occasionally turning our hand into a bluff on cards like a 7 or 8.
5) on improved river we get more value. Although because of 4) i don't think his range at this point is terribly strong, we still get him to stack off with smaller flushes or sometimes a straight when we make our flush. On an A or Q river I would make a very, very small bet hoping to induce a spaz or a really light call.

As played, could raising the river be more +ev than calling? I'm never folding here for sure given his flop raise sizing + turn bet sizing.