VforVengeance

First of all gg, not only for result but even for your mentality

Second excuse me for my bad english :D

I wanna ask you some question because some of my ideas about the game are similar to yours.

My stat FOLD against BTN steal is 48% from BB but only 49% against BTN steal and SB call. yours? you hit me telling to defend more in MULTIWAY pot.

Can you profitably (lose less than fold) call SC from SB against a normal reg that opens 14-18% from EP/MP? (I actually defend from BB)

Can you profitably call AXs Agaisnt EP/MP from SB or BB? (I actually fold)

And KXs?

Does this change against a raiser from EP/MP+ a caller?

Ty!

***** Hand History for Game 1111111111 ***** (On Game)
€200.00 EUR NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, September 08, 04:44:23 ET 2013
Table Lendinara (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 4: Hero ( €234.92 EUR ) - VPIP: 28, PFR: 23, 3B: 8, AF: 2,6, Hands: 902106
Seat 5: Player5 ( €426.75 EUR ) - VPIP: 26, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 2,1, Hands: 105209
Seat 6: Player6 ( €237.51 EUR ) - VPIP: 19, PFR: 16, 3B: 8, AF: 2,9, Hands: 59389
Seat 8: Player8 ( €293.86 EUR ) - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2,6, Hands: 25626
Seat 9: Player9 ( €330.58 EUR ) - VPIP: 21, PFR: 18, 3B: 8, AF: 2,8, Hands: 254587
Seat 10: Player10 ( €198.00 EUR ) - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 4,0, Hands: 230912
Player10 posts small blind [€1.00 EUR].
Hero posts big blind [€2.00 EUR].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [  Ah 7s ]
Player5 folds
Player6 folds
Player8 folds
Player9 raises [€4.00 EUR]
Player10 folds
Hero calls [€2.00 EUR]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Th, 4h, Kh ]
Hero checks
Player9 bets [€5.00 EUR]
Hero raises [€16.00 EUR]
Player9 raises [€35.00 EUR]
Hero raises [€214.92 EUR]
Player9 calls [€190.92 EUR]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8s ]
Player9 wins €467.59 EUR from main pot
Hero shows [Ah, 7s ]
Player9 shows [4d, 4c ]

Villain steals 57 from BTN, Cbet flop Ip 67, fold to raise Ip 38, turn Cbet Ip 61, fold turn to raise Ip 47, turn fold after B/C flop 28, River fold after B/C and turn Call 63. 25k hands

Yes I'd try to flat more flop because on 92 hands the 2nd barrel only 38/92 turn -> 41%!
When they don't 2nd barrel I'm winning 181bb/100... winning at Sd and without Sd...
When they 2nd barrel I'm winning -629bb/100... losing at Sd and without Sd... (even filtered with 14 TP -> Won hand 29%, I'm losing 512bb/100 while check folding is -470bb/100)

I repeat I know that watching so few hands could be useless but i think it's +ev than don't watch it...
Anyway SEEM that in my field with TP kicker 2-9 is better to XC 1 street and then give up than XC XC...

Yes :) and it succed to make you purposing something like: "Post hands you´re not sure about" :)
I know that 350 hands are really variance oriented... but try to anticipate what will be the result without variance imho is +ev than wait and then analyze... For this aim I've posted stats with filters...

So what is your advice? 

Just play 10M+ hands that will be like 5k+ hands in this spot? 

Yes. I think that it's interesting to filter in 2 way:

-Flopping a pair/flush/nut fd/2pair +

-Flopping A-high

Or

-Vs Cbet

-Vs Check behind

-Flopping pair/flush/nut fd/2pair +I'm winning 55bb/100

115 hands

Wtsd 49,6 W$sd 63,2

flop fold vs cbet 2% 

check call 82

check raise 14

-Flopping none of this I'm winning -220bb/100

242 hands

Wtsd 19,4 W$sd 40,4

flop fold vs cbet 61%

check call 15,2

check raise 23,8%

-Facing flop Cbet -255bb/100

-Vs Missed Cbet 100bb/100 (bet vs missed Cbet 57%)

If you'd like to analyze with others filters tell me, i found these interesting.

No obv. I'm asking you for this.

If 99/100 here tell me they lose in this spot I could probably save my money and stop trying calling. ;)

If 99/100 here tell me they win in this spot I'm happy to keep calling and watch my future result (maybe I'l be in the % of people that still lose -> focus on my postflop game OOP... Or maybe my win rate will be better than -99/100). 

Let's assume in 100 people 

-best scenario 10 lose 80bb/100

-medium 80 lose a mean of 110bb/100

-worst 10 lose 130bb/100

Could be significant

I lose near 130bb/100 flatting A2o-A9o in 350 hands... I decided to change strategy because i was losing 130bb/100 with Wtsd 27 and W$Sd 54... 

@chael

I use HM2...

Anyway the situation is:

- 1 raiser from btn

- hero pos Sb/bb

- Vpip = true 

- 3bet = false

- A2o-A9o