UserX

I wouldn't raise bluff with complete air, but I would absolutely take a stab at it if I have some reasonable outs and I am the kid on your left. You appear to be a good player, so I'm going to assume you can fold. This looks like a situation where I can raise bluff a relatively small amount and still appear super strong. As far as the other player is concerned, he is loose and originally the fourth person into the hand so his range is super wide and filled with garbage that can easily have missed this flop.

I've only played these stakes a handful of times, but isn't the line you are suggesting just incredibly weak looking? I'd expect you to get raise-bluffed quite frequently.

You hand is basically only a 30-33% favorite against virtually any range of hands three way. So you are not betting for straight value here. So that raises some questions.

Are the two people in front of you easily bluffable? If so, raise away because you will be able to win the pot on many flops you miss.

Are the two people in front of you call boxes post flop? If so, raise away because they will likely call if you hit your hand on the flop.

Will the cut-off and the button fold when they would have otherwise called (thereby buying position)? If so, raise away because you will be in a better position to outplay your opponents postflop.

If it isn't incredibly obvious that your two opponents have one of these two leaks and it isn't likely that both the cutoff and button will fold, I would like to think I would just call (in reality, I would probably raise because i just like to raise, even though I really don't think it is optimal).

I would fold preflop. Your starting hand isn't really that strong (basically flipping against top 30% of hands and a 32/58 dog to a random AA hand). Also, if UTG didn't shove, I'm pretty sure the button would come along (because...you know...pot odds). There is no shame in just waiting for a better spot.

I know that this thread is three weeks old, but I'm going to comment anyway. I agree with your suspicion that you overplayed your hand here.

Where I believe you made a mistake was raising from the small blind. Unless you have a wider than normal three bet range out of the SB AND your opponent is smart enough to know this, you just told your opponent what your hand is. He 100% already knows on the flop whether or not he should be calling/raising/folding, and he is unlikely to be making mistakes.

By simply calling preflop, you disguise your hand and widen the range of hands the villain can perceive you have. This allows you to represent a wider range of hands, play a wider range of flops effectively, provides him with a greater opportunity to make an expensive mistake, and you give yourself some wiggle room to make more nuanced decisions.

Thant being said, once you decided to three bet out of the SB and that particular flop comes out, you are pretty committed yourself to the Pot-flop, pot-turn line.

At the end of the day, I think calling out of the SB will be more profitable across a wider variety of flops with much less variance.

I think you nailed it when you mentioned that you are three handed and there is one person left to act behind you. I wouldn't count 89 out of his range because he knows that the button is a steamed LAG too. He may be checking the river to induce a bluff (especially since the way the hand played out it seems likely he isn't getting a call from a value bet anyway). Tough spot, but I think it is a fold.

Anyway, if I create ranges for both villians that include the top 20% of hands, all three and four card run downs 9 high, 9+ flush potential, KK, AA, and double pairs 9+, preflop you are 49%/25%/25%

After the flop, with no additional information you are still 49%/25%/25%. So it might have been better to go for a check raise. Because you didn't raise preflop, it should represent well, and you will often win the pot right there. If your check raise gets called by one of the villians, I think you can assume they are on a flush draw, two pair, or small set, and merrily bet turn and river. If your check raise gets four bet, I think it is safe to assume you are behind and happily fold.

Now, if you are heads up (rather than three handed), I think the story changes a little bit. For the most part I think the check raise the flop strategy still works well. However, If you were heads up , I think once have check called the flop, you have kind of committed yourself to check calling the whole way down because you have already decided he doesn't have the straight, your turn gives you a set, and the villian seems like the guy who would three barrel through a flush draw after it goes bust.

Given what you said about the villain, I put him on a range of: Top 20% of hands + 3 and 4 card run downs 6 or higher, plus any paired Ks or As, plush flush draw potential of 6 or higher, plus double pairs 6 or higher.

Preflop, this puts you at a 65% favorite.

Once the flop comes out, you are still a 66% favorite against his range with no further information.

I really don't think his $35 bet on the flop reduces his range any, so I think optimally this may be a check raise here because the decision is easy. It's only going to get more difficult to to figure out as the hand progresses, and he seems like the kind of guy that would put it all in with an over pair or an eight out draw.

Once you check call the flop, I think you have kind of committed yourself to check calling all the way down. You know the flop mostly misses him, the turn and river doesn't change that, and him continuing to bet doesn't change anything either that because it sounds like you had identified him as someone who is likely to three barrel bluff or to be betting very thin.

At the end of the day, I think you took the second best line.

First time responding to a thread, so forgive me if I'm on a different planet. Given your reads on the villians, I've created the following ranges:

CO: Top 20% of hands + 4 card run downs 9 or higher, plus any paired Ks or As, plush flush draw potential of 10 or higher, plus double pairs 9 or higher.

BB: Top 50% of hands.

Pre-flop, you are 41% against 30.1% (CO) against 28.05% (BB).
Post-flop before any action or new information other than the cards you are down to 24.7% against 36.38% (CO) against 39% (BB). So you are already in a position where putting any more money in the pot is marginal. You have no significant draws other than a set and the board is wet with both a flush draw and a straight.

Given this information and the fact that you are three handed, I say that the correct flop play is a fold to the BB shove. You are stuck in the middle. You have no information on the cut-off, and the BB likely has at least top pair. It is quite likely that you are already behind and drawing to two outs.

As an alternate line here, I would suggest simply calling the COs raise rather than coming over the top. Effective stacks here are $418 (you), and it isn't possible to get over half of it in preflop. By re-raising you are creating a bloated pot that is difficult to get out of. Because you have telegraphed your hand) and because you still have $366 dollars behind, and because of your position, the other players have a significant advantage for making profitable decisions post flop. You are unlikely to get called if you hit your set on a dry board, you are racing at best even if you hit your set on a wet board, and you are likely very far behind on a board similar to the one that came up. By simply calling the three bet (instead of four betting), you disguise your hand better and it is easier to get away from it when the flop doesn't come your way.

Now, if you were heads up against the CO, the situation changes completely. You are a 61% favorite preflop, and you are still 50/50 with no further information on the flop. At this point, you are likely committed to go with it, but the pot is smaller and there might be some room to make some plays that are more profitable than simply shoving and reshoving it all in on the flop.

Hi Phill, first time caller. Love the show.

At 46:11 you are reviewing a hand where you had raised preflop with 10436ds to isolate the cutoff and got cold called from the little blind (cutoff folds) who ended up having A997 with a suited ace. At this point, you make the comment that this is horrible hand selection on his part. Is it really? If I was the little blind in this situation, I would put you on an exceptionally wide range here because its obvious that you have been playing aggressively and using position. Given this read, is the villlian's hand more playable than you are assuming? Or, is this still a no go.