Ulcinator

Reasoning behind checking the flop? I think this is a pretty mandatory cbet spot to protect your equity and avoid difficult spots where villain can exploit you. I think when you check the flop and flat his turn bet, your range looks incredibly weak against his and your hand is pretty much face up at that point, giving him great fold equity and leverage to put you in difficult spots on the river, like the one we see here.

If you were to have a hand like AK, maybe KQs, which you could credibly rep given your preflop 3b, I would imagine (and so would villain) that you would bet the flop and/or raise the turn to get value, fold out draws, and take away his ability to bluff the river and put you in a difficult spot, which he may or may not have capitalized on here.

I think his range is pretty polarized here. He could be taking this line with all his bluffs, missed draws (less likely?), and sets. Would he do this with a K? Maybe... although I think he would realize that he misses value but not betting smaller/thinner.

Question for the thread: does the fact villain jams instead of value betting (hands like AK, KQ, sets) actually weaken his range and make us more inclined to make a hero call? I would probably take 46 for the nuts out of his range, just because I don't think he's calling preflop OOP.

Obviously a very high variance spot, which I try to avoid... with that said, given SPR and how many draws there are, I don't hate a shove as much as everyone else on this thread. It's close. I don't see calling making much sense here... I think villain can make your life hell (still) on almost any turn/river.

Reasons for not getting it in: no club blockers/backdoor flush outs and you only have TPTK. Many future street cards crush your equity and you have almost no equity against sets.

Reasons for getting it in: you have decent equity against his draws and some equity against J10/J4 (although your J blocker makes that scenario less likely) and even overpairs (I think SOME players can show up here with QQ/KK - especially weaker players who don't play the top of their range aggressively preflop).

Not sure what to think about fold equity here. I think it could go either way and depend entirely on the player and their tendencies

Gross spot, but leaning towards a jam/pray given how much money is already in the pot and how many draws are out there. Interesting hand, thanks for sharing.

Gross... especially given that you have two blockers to that exact hand, but indeed I think that's the product of a small flop cbet (I've made the same mistake more than I can count). Curious if he folds on the flop to $100, probably? I suppose that's the one hand where leading does make more sense.

Agree with this play. Not sure how often villain is folding given his tendencies, the sizing (~2.7x) and SPR, but you have position and likely get him to fold to a turn barrel if does elect to call the flop lightly.

Easy fold on turn and bigger flop bet for sure. I think this sizing makes you look weaker, although I don't hate smaller-ish sizing. You're not risking as much to have him fold out all his non-Ax and possibly even JJ/QQ hands (I think he would fold 99 and reraise KK pre). Depends on villain's tendencies I guess, which is hard to know after only one orbit.

After he calls preflop and flop, we're almost certain his holdings include a strong A. Anything worse, with the exception of unlikely sets, would be suicidal for him.

I think villain's donk is pretty bad no matter what his holdings are - curious if others agree/disagree. If he has something like AK (which it kind of feel like he does - I can't think of much more than makes sense here) he's killing his action and preventing you from bluffing. Anything worse than AK, he's only getting called by better.