ULpiano

Oh ok i understand now :)

I would venture to guess we are dominated by 12 to 15 combos (depending on range construction) and we dominate very few.

I feel like the flop+turn sizing is never used with QQ,TT,KJs.. as they still need protection and they unblock most of my continuing range.

If he is only betting like AK/AJ without the pair+ NFD, you are at a pretty substantial equity disadvantage.

We have 2 pair

I have no bluffs, except maybe JTss.. The idea is:
1- to punish his AK,AJ,AXs that might play block-block-check (i do expect a lot of Xbacks when he uses those sizes). I will do the same with flushes.
2- to set the price low vs hands like AQ,TT,KJs,99 - this i dont think is that relevant tho given his turn size (these hands are not sizing like that OTT).
3- because of 1, his betting range on the river is gonna become a bit more polar and is gonna be hard to dominate value and now he has very little amount of bluffs.. i hate XC here.

Obv it could have been simpler to just raise flop or turn and avoid this mess..

so what line u take on the river?

So, i think you are correct that mainly we wanna be shoving our value and our bluffs. But isnt there a part of our value range that isnt incentivsed to shove? Like AQ and maybe some KQ, if so, then we should have some bluffs for a smaller size..

makes sense to not use Ks or Js

Yep! i like this analysis. Agree flop its gonna be a raise at some frequency. How about non spade KJo on the river?

Agree!
Sizing wise, how would u approach the turn spot? And how would you proceed on a club or blank river?

I would size up preflop. Couple BB´s more.
These low connected-monotone boards are almost purely checked SB v BU (blocking is fine tho in terms of EV).
I think we have very little fe% on the turn after villain takes this line + we have a fantastic price on the call.

Yeah i aggre that this feels a bit polar (or atleast something like TT+ for value). The thing is, i struggle to find natural bluffs in villains range. He shouldnt go crazy with diamonds and A4,A5 improved..

River is regular fold and not even an exploit one. It's not solid poker to blindly bluff catch rivers vs any sizing. There big differences in calling river with AQ KQ and QJ. Normally AQ is going to be around your worst bluff catcher in these spots, but since its blind vs blind I can see KQ being one too. But then you look at his bet size and realize you gatta nope out there with KQ as well.

QJ,KQ are much better bluffcatchers than AQ, given the range hes repping even JT is better. And having diamonds makes this a premium bluffcatch combo (with KQdd yes). In theory...

but you do have all the KJ combos and random two pairs since your range is wider, and that is enough combos to support your bluff catching. So no need to feel bad about folding QJ here if you are already opening wide in the SB.

i dont really have KJ on the river, unless is KJcc or KJhh (even those i would raise turn with).

The very nice property of turning this into a bluff would be that we get most KK-QQ to fold,

I think KK is going to be always shoved pre and mostly the same for QQ.
It feels too strong to turn it into a bluff. Your 4b seems a bit short + dead money from BU, this will price in some KTs,JTs,QTs.

the question is can he shove his mid pairs as a bluff on the river. to fold out your JJ QQ KK.

and yeah, i dont think thats happening very often in nl25, expect most regs to showdown 99,Tx

Turn: The flop call caps BB's range, as TT/99/66/T9s/87s plus the majority of flush draws should have checkraises flop.

He´s capped on the flop but he´s not on the turn anymore (really dynamic turn). He has a bunch of AXcc,KXcc and some QXcc in his calling range.
This and the fact that we dont really want to XB sets,87s and KQ should incentivise us to size down on the turn.

Funny because i recently watched a video of BrPC where Max Lacerda comments about this. A little bit different spot, but similar idea behind it..

https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1091680409?filter=archives&sort=time

the hand in question is 65s around the hour and 40min mark.

And yes. After blocking the turn i really like overbetting river with this combo. Expecting more fold than if we would sized up on the turn.

Yeah wp.

im afraid that a smaller sizing will be more of a TP often while a polarized bet includes more bluffs

i think this size starts to be already quite polarized. Its quite a size up from his flop and turn sizes. Dont really expect QJs,JTs here (although it might be correct to play then this way).

if you want to pressure 77-TT just cbet bigger on the flop and be done with it

agree with this, im just mainly using 1/3 here.

if you 3bet all your AK pre then you will have a lot of combos that bet this turn as a semi bluff, with the next best ones being 54s, so having Ax suited here is too wide as well

As played flop, i´d rather use low frec crap like this over hands like T9s,54s as 2nd barrels (realize equity and avoid getting shoved/ bluffng them on the river). AK yes, i dont mind as it still has lots of outs to improve while still having a reasonable BF.

I’m curious what others think, but i’m worried youre running into a ton of things that will snap you off inelastically here, after the turn call.

yeah, thats my concern as well.. and maybe going massive is the aswer to this. blocking 52s,KQ

A lot of players dont have a raising range on this flop due to their range- and nut disadvantage. Villain also has 25s in his range and so is not totally capped OTT.
This changes OTR as KQss should be a pure 3bet pre and any other KQ combo should fold turn.
So villain is more capped OTR than the turn i would say.

agree with this.. those 52s are always a problem :)

MP is a rec. I dont remember the profile exactly, but im isolating this everytime from late position.. what are u isolating with here?

its clearly a bluff. everything gets the by the river and this is the absolute bottom of my range . Also, he shouldnt be raising complete trash 4way on the flop.

The first one is a clear call, no need to re-open the action and risk getting shoved on.
The 2nd one is a bit shittier being OOP and all. Ill still call it given the price and the probable rec in the hand.

Shaun tought us the last time in your thread where you XR the flop:
Once we start polarizing our range, we usually dont swith back into merged betting patterns.

Right. Exactly why i posted this. Cause this time is BB vs EP. T9s got there on the turn and KTs on the river. We have very little amount of bluffs and its really hard to get value from any worse. Thats why i was wondering if this can be an exception..