TurnTheNuts

In the Q8 hand, if we are checking the turn with most of our bluffs, aren't we a little too imbalanced on this river. We rep a thin value range, and it seems like we are always going to want to bluff this river card with every bluff we get there with. You say villain is a decent reg, so its likely he realizes his range is somewhat capped and hard to defend on the river, no? 

Hey great video man! Watched it twice.

Just had a few questions about some of the concepts.

1) In the nuts/air vs bluffcatcher example. You state that that villain has 30% nuts and 70% air on the river with 1psb. Since he has 1psb, in order to meet 1-a, we must defend 50% of the time. However, we lose to his value hands, no? So we should actually defend less than 1-a since his range is protected with his nut combos. So we only defend 1-a if his range is composed entirely of bluffs? I understand these examples are simplifications, so I'm only asking about this because you explicitly state that villain has 30% nuts. I'm assuming there are modifications to 1-a that can be made to account for the nut combos in villains polarized range. Is this an example of where we would need to make a modification to account for his 30% nut range?

2) In the K72 BB vs Btn example, are we making the simplification that btn's entire range is composed of the hands from the bottom of his range with 13-17% equity? If btn cbets his entire range on K72, his EV vs our continuing range is much higher than just 1BB. I realize that 1-a is a computation for how often we should defend vs his BLUFFS, but since villains range is not composed entirely of his minimum equity bluffs when he cbets K72, are we just ignoring the rest of his range? Similarly, are we assuming that all of his check back range is his min equity hands. Since if he checks back his entire range (which is what were trying to make him indifferent between, right?), his entire range should have much more equity than the 1.3BB?

Am I just overlooking some simplifications that are being made? The logic seems completely sound in situations where villains range is all bluffs (or his min equity hands that we made the adjustments for). But, when you consider his entire range, like his value combos etc., the math doesn't seem to account for them. Or is this another modification to 1-a that you will address in a future video? Or am I just making a logical thought process flaw here?

Anyways, once again, awesome video! I really enjoyed it. Hope to see more from you in the future!

Question about preflop. Did you consider 3 bet bluffing preflop? I'm not saying flatting isn't +EV, just that 3betting here might be more +EV depending on utg raiser, instead of taking a multiway flop oop.

Rest of hand played out pretty standard, and no I don't think I would be bluffing here ever vs 2 perceived fish, especially with sdv, even if it's just a little. For basically all the reasons you mentioned above.

Seems like a very villain-dependent spot, and that your opponent is polarized to 33, 9xd, and 3x. Although it's unlikely he goes for value this way with 3x, and doens't have much of it in his BB defending range. My advice would just to be ignore where you are in your range since this is a pretty extreme scenario, and like you said, your range is face up anyways. Just play the river in a vacuum and call if you think he bluffs often enough and fold if you think he doesn't. I would imagine that most villains aren't bluffing here often enough and even if he is, sacrificing a little bit of equity in the pot by avoiding a super high variance play can never be too bad ;).

At approx minute 5 on table 1, what are your reasons for not value betting the TT otr? I don't play in any full ring 6 max games online, but assuming villain's range for opening the HJ is similar to 6max games, he should have plenty of lower PP, and MAYBE some 87s, 89s, 8Ts that he can bluff catch us with, no? Additionally, like you said, we almost never beat, and I imagine we have pretty much near the top of our range otr once we take this line.

Whether or not you should 4bet pre depends on what stats you are running. Personally, I run a really high 4 bet stat, so 4bet/call off the 5 bet with 99 is pretty standard for me, especially BvB.

Ott I think we should fold. We're getting a terrible price to call, essentially drawing dead vs JJ+, and V has enormous equity when he shows up with 2overs+FD. It's true that we are only calling ott with a really narrow range (88,55,22,T8s), but its unlikely V is going to 2x pot the turn on these type of boards often enough for us to worry about getting exploited hard.

Glad you found my thought process to be helpful, as I wasn't sure if all the points I was trying to make would be relevant. If you bet 130 ott and get called, I would really be inclined to ship the riv for value on all blanks since V's will probably just shove over all 2pair+ ott. And on most non-blanks (spades), you have the nuts lol. So basically be ready to shove riv for value if your opponents just call ott on almost every riv card :).

I mean there's no way flatting KTs from SB vs UTG+1 open is better than 3 bet bluffing. We have good blockers vs his nut range KK, AK, TT. If we really think his HJ opening range is sooo strong, then we should probably just fold this spot then. Flatting is definitely the worst of the 3 options IMHO.

Also, I don't really have too much of a leading range tbh but I think we have to remember that OR is still uncapped, and JJ+ might make up a significant portion of his PFR when he raises to this sizing from the HJ.

Cbetting QQ here probably can't be too bad since we're cbetting this board with close to 100% of our range as the preflop 3 bettor. Still prefer checking though, especially at 25nl. When V raises flop, I do think his range is polarized to 88, 33 or FD. Never AK, KK. You block KQ like you said, and unlikely he raises worse K for value. So basically he's weighted really strongly to flush draws since people don't really do this with zero equity hands. Even though it seems like a dumb spot to bluff raise bc he reps such a narrow value range...like you said, he could perceive ranges to be pretty wide still pre since your 3 bet looks pretty damn bluffy haha. So yea, I think its a fold ott. 

Why isolate the shorty so huge? Especially with another shorty in the SB.
Why not bet bigger otf. So many combo hands like AdTx, Qdx, etc that are never folding, and we can extract value from.
And at 20nl, not sure about the frequency of people showing up with draws ott. So I'm actually not really sure what to do. You would know much better than me. Seems likely that this line from V is always nutted though on this board.

Is KTs a flat here pre from the SB? Especially vs 3.5x raise. Seem like definitely a 3bet/fold spot to me.

I think the turn is going to get bluffed raised a lot since you should never really have 7x in your range. V could be doing this ott with all GS, OESD, FD, and even A high floats, planning to ship almost all rivers and just rep 7x. Bc of this, I think we might be too high up in our range otr to fold. I assume we lead all of our sets/two pairs otf, but were probably 3 bet shoving ott with all our boats, so it looks like we have pretty damn near the top of our range otr. If we fold a hand as good as KT otr, V can just profitably shove all his bluffs :(. I mean if you had a huge sample of hands vs him, and saw that he was a passive fish, with low AF, super high W$SD, and thought he was incapable of bluffing here, then you can make a really exploitative fold. But being essentially readless with only 70 hands on him, I think folding river is a mistake, especially since he had an AF of 6 over the small sample.

Also: we should probably bet slightly bigger on flop and turn to 1) discourage him from going for this really obvious bluff spot and 2) our range otf will have 2pairs/sets and our range ott with have boats. All of these hands will want to set up an SPR for a river shove. This is probably not really all that important at 100nl, but betting bigger is going to make more sense for our entire range, since poker isn't played in a vacuum :). 

I have some limited experience playing live games at these stakes, and it's pretty much all about super exploitative play and not worrying about our own ranges and being balanced. Pre-flop is standard. I like cbetting otf way better than c/r in live games here for the reason I stated above. No reason to think about how we would construct our action with the rest of our range otf because every live player is terrible. It's hard to believe c/r will generate too much more fold equity vs live fish anyways since no one is folding top pair otf. Going for a c/r does allow us to pot control when they check back with 9x and worse but we're favorite vs those hands anyways, and can easily barrel them down on later streets even if we don't improve. Cbetting also allows us to value bet vs all of the villains draws since we are ahead of all spades, GS, and OESD. Most live fish are very passive and will check back these hands, especially in multiway pots, so we lose value :(.

Ott, we should definitely aim for a smaller sizing IMO. Shoving here will probably never ever get called by worse, and probably never fold better vs stationy live players who won't fold bottom two pair here. However, even most fishy live stations won't call a PSB ott with a FD or SD. We can bet smaller to extract value from all of our opponents' Jx, weaker aces (if they have any), and draws. Maybe even QQ that slowplayed preflop and flop, you never know with live players lol. I wouldn't worry too much about betting small ott and losing value from draws when they brick the riv tho... You have 2 big spades in your hand, blocking most combos of FD (V's ranges are going to be weighted more to As than say the 5s). And you have a Q, blocking QT, V's most likely SD. So yea, I'd be betting smaller, like 120 -140 ott.

Honestly, with how hard you block combos of draws ott, you could even consider c/c ott.  It's going to be hard to extract from a weaker made hand (Jx, TT, 9x, QQ, etc) in a multiway pot by betting ott. So you could even c/c ott and c/f otr if you miss bc most live players aren't good enough to value bet both turn AND riv without at least two pair+. This last part is kind of villain dependent though. Hope this helped, I only have ~300 hours of live poker in my life, so there's probably someone wayyy better out there who can answer this better haha.

"Trivia: River was Ah, do you think I won or lost the hand?" I'm guessing the BB had 42 lol.
Cold calling 67s here is a huge mistake against the range that we just assigned the BN. It is very likely that our two-pair/trips outs are not even live and we might already be drawing to a chop with the 4.

Also, why do you think BN has 55 more than 33. I'd assume he flats all combos of 55 pre-flop, as well as 33. And most likely plays them similarly postflop. 

Wow, this is a really crazy hand! I think calling flop is best option. Cold 4betting is going to be perceived as only the nuts, and while any villain with 55 or 33 will still probably stack it off, those hands will stack off anyways on future streets. By cold 4betting, we under-rep our hand and BB and HJ can continue with hands like 88+, A7, etc. so we can extract additional value from them still. Plus, there is still going to be a narrow range that we are going to want to call with otf, like 75, and maybe even 64 depending on the tendencies of the other players in the hand. So it's important that we protect this range.

Ott it's a must call I think. We have the absolute top of our range. Also, BN is not always going to cold 3bet the nuts on this board otf I think, but will almost always cold 3bet 55 and 33.

Turn call is a mistake IMO. It's unlikely that villain with these stats is double barreling light on this board which strongly favors our range, especially for this sizing. Folding JJ ott might be super exploitable, but I wouldn't worry too much about it tbh.

River is a must bluff I think. We're going to have plenty of sets/Tx/flushes that we are going to want to value shove with. Also, we have pretty near the bottom of our range otr as I can't think of too many worse hands we would play this way with. Maybe QJ, but only the 4 combos of QJs flat preflop. And even then, we probably bluff raise QJss ott so maybe only 3 combos.

Interested. Skype name is alan.li1995