TruthS33ka

I tend to overfold too much in general but for me it is a fold pre given BB is a nit and he is deep vs UTG. Imho, BB doesn't have a bluffing range. UTG call is scary too given the cold 4bet by a nit. This is a very rare spot where you invested a little, so in the long run, it won't cripple your winrate

I would bet 1/3 OTF and I thought this was the only resonable bet size available on this flop with our holding. I mean , I just finished last Janda's and I would play that way. If you deploy your betting size, what's your cbetting range here?

Different players fight differently on many spots, ie, some could donk out a lot, some could x/r a lot and so on.
I think in this exact spot we can open up our HUD and even on a very low sample size I'm leaning toward raising flop if Villain donked quite often, if not, I would just call

Villain is unknown but I've seen him calling passively.

This made me think we are quite behind OTF often.
OTR, we have a bluffcatcher and if he is passive, chances are that he won't bluff often, this means you are going to win whenever he got air.
Your goal, targetting low pairs, is quite ambitious on this runout

You need to call

why? It isn't just a matter of implied odds?

It depends on the reg... if he is pretty pretty aggro I call it off

.

Villain minraise flop and bet the turn

Normally I'd 3bet, but villain is a huge nit so I'd rather not get 4bet off my equity with a hand that flops well.

If he is a nit, and there's not fish in the BB, is KTs a profitable call given the rake?
Dunno TBH, I'm a nit too, and I'm leaning toward folding pre.
We are OOP for the rest of the hand, we can safely assume Villain isn't going to put money in if runouts are bad for him, but he can bet when he has something and this happens to dominate us pretty often.

Bet bigger OTF, any Ax and many other holdings will come along.

Assuming we aren't folding ever here, the only real question is, how do I get the most money in. Well, imo, we can def raise the turn as I cannot him folding A2, random A5 (even if he almost got 0 of them) and AK (which he can have for sure).

As played, I like to donk river, probably 1/3 pot bet, as I don't see him bet anymore

Subscribed for discussion.
I'm playing on a really fishy pool where these spots are so frequent and I'm positive that I'm misplaying them a lot.
Is really hard to get value, even from a fish, OOP, when you hit the river. Probably it is better to raise turn and shove river, it would yield more folds and more profit imho.
Discaimer: in game I would take the x/c turn line, 100% of the times, because I'm a passive reg

Normally on the flop I almost always call as I don't feel great getting it in on this flop vs his get in range

Obv you aren't doing great vs his AI range, but don't forget he can fold to your raise. I think you assume that you are going to being jammed on very often, which isn't true.

Regarding the turn and the river IDK TBH.
If he is a competent reg he should bluffs a lot OTR given the fact we never have a hand when we check that turn. So this should skyrocket he's bluffing frequency.

What about shoving the turn? Obv when you get called you are crushed, but at the same time, you block AK

I think your size are good TBH, unless you know Villain is sticky postflop, which I don't know (you haven't posted any stat, like fold vs flop cbet%).
Anyway, if he is sticky, size up a little more, if not, your bets are fine.

He has a wide and weak range that cannot call multiple streets, so if you size up too much, you do yourself a disservice.

As played, I would open up my HUD and see whether I got some donk stat % that would help me out a lot.
Anyway, OTT a diamond flush draw came in so he could have busted flush draw OTR, along with other random things.
I would call it off, and make a note

Should I checkraise flop or turn here sometimes ?

I would vs a fish, vs a reg you fold out a ton of holding that you beat

And most importantly, should I call river given the passive line I
took ?

At these stakes, I don't think players think a lot about villain image. There's no way you can extrapolate the thinking process of villain, but even if you have a low sample you can infer something.
I would open up my HUD, check his flop cbet % and turn cbet % and if he it high in both stats I snapcall

Mad_DOG_33

I agree with you, but...

villain is a fun player running 32/19 over small sample

he could have more random stabs that we can think of

I would check flop and x/c turn a not-so-big turn bet and x/f river.
I think villain could have anything from a made hand to a semibluff and fold QQ is too much imo

When you're 150BB or so deep, overpairs should be played carefully, especially OOP. I would check flop because if you get raised here, it's brutal.

True... however you assume that you are going to be raise somewhat often. I'm 100% positive that if you look at your DB you will found that the raise frequency is very low

yes, 17% vs UTG and extremely aggro vs me, so it could be more than 17%.

Added the relevant stats which I forgot to post

And yes, I think I got good FE give how why is 3bet vs UTG and in general

Added the relevant stats which I forgot to post

For pocket pairs you need implied odds of about 12 or 15-to-1 OOP and 10-to-1 IP. For suited hands to hit two pair or flush, you need about 20-to-1 implied odds.

Can you explain those numbers where they are coming from?

I recently reread Peter Clarke's book, Grinder's Manual, he advocates your same sizes.
I think, at microstakes, you open tighter and the rake is very large, so I guess open larger is incentivized.
You make the pot bigger with bigger advantage postflop, and your chance to take it down preflop should be higher (so less rake paid)

I would call turn and crying call river and expect to lose often.
At the same time I recall many many times that I called down and a ultranit player shows a bluff. Maybe he's frustrated for some kind of reason...

It's NL5, players can overplay hands pretty easily imho, so I don't think we have a bluffcatch because we can still beat many Ax (not FHs). Also he could jamming total air, given again the stakes played.

Weaktight is good for me...
If you want to just make a post better, appearance wise you have post a clickable link (highlight a word than click on the chain icon) or just post a screenshot of the hand

I don't plan to stack off OTT. I think raise the turn and follow up OTR would fold out many holdings you don't beat, which is quite impossible if you raise the river only.

Regarding your last hand you posted, stop... I mean, our minds are too much biased. You can easily recall some hands while leave many others well deep in your memory.
This will lead you in thinking wrong in many spots since you recall only a fraction of hands.

For example, during a swing you fear losing with AA. Last 1k hands you lost twice vs a set, so you begin to see overpairs vs set setup everywhere, but obv it isn't the case. You know deep inside you, but know your mind is too bias to acknowledge that.

Don't focus on the past, and if you want to infer something, just rely on data not on our faulty mind.

Ah, my mind is more biased than yours, I'm struggling as you do

I don't think raise OTR should works well. He can easily have two pair and other stuff that you beat, or just simply don't fold enough to river raises.
Dunno, you have to find out what your population do.

What about raise the turn and follow up OTR?

AQs lose its high pair potential if you go multiway. It doesn't mean it is not valuable but probably, especially at low stakes, a 3bet is better than a call.

Regarding your 5bet question, I don't think it is happen often and depending on the stack sizes I would call and I'm confident that I will do pretty well against an even okish range