Troll

Hey, that will take several days, because I got some other stuff to do.

OK, so I decided that I will work on DAZ question.

My work notes goes here, I will update those.

SB vs BB check/do something

Well it is 5way, so I wouldnt be cbetting here. all suited connectors hit that flop and even baby aced did. So if there is more aggressive opponents I would expect some raised here. I would do that against UTG, because his range is very well defined and will have a lot of troubles.

You are a little bit deeper with UTG so that could alter his strategy. In general he shouldn't have baby pairs here, however who knows, maybe he starts to setmine more often ? (unlikely. However I would expect him not to fastplay QQ. Also depending on what oponents are behind I could see him slowplaying even higher monster pairs (I do not talk about non pairs here, because it is not relevant in that situation).

So opponent tendencies are important here. It is possible that he even wouldn't call with 3 players behind with his 99/TT here. So those are discounted, then he can have 88/QQ, maybe fraction of KK+ and Jacks (nobody folds picture pairs ;) ).

when he bets on the turn he is either valuebetting or bluffing. I doubt that he would be bluffing there with his made hands and I don't see bluffs in his range, so I would fold. Especially when J comes on the turn.

from turn view point:

better: 88(3), JJ(3), discounted AA (1.5) = 7,5 combos

worse: QQ(6)

equal: KK (1,5)

So I would say, that it would be OK plan to x/c once, however I think, that then it is better to bet for yourself and maybe extract some additional value from random 99/TT.

On the river it looks like that now his value combos are reduced, however I hardly believe that he has a lot of worse hands to bet there.

I think there is no need to fold:)

Range distribution and you can manipulate your own weights.

Guy wo x/raised doesn't have anything better than you have. And you are not that likely to hit that flop extremely well, so mysterio could go lighter.

I didn't see lefort videos and not familiar with such things. Also I am not GTO fan because it is not the way to earn most money imho. And at some point GTO is kinda oposite to pot odds and similar stuff. So I will try to solve that exercise, however it is possible that I will not do that in the way like you want (because I am not familiar with everything that you mentioned).

You dont need GTO at micros. What you need to start doing is build very good fundaments of poker. That means you need to play poker well by yourself, so learn odds, build good range fundaments (if you will start playing bad ranges now, you will have troubles to get rid of that in the future). So your main priority is to learn good and solid poker and not to make mistakes right now. Others will pay for you if they will not be able to play well.

don't go into very deep HUD analysis now, because you can;'t learn too many things at once. And with HEM it will be kinda messy, Also samples will be small. Still pay some attention at HUD (not overloaded one) and get used to it, however do not base your decisions on HUD only like most people do. HUD is just some hind about player tendencies. If you are just starting then observer other people playing, take notes, imageine ways to exploit or play vs them. Do not apply fancy lines, try to avoid lines from much higher stakes videos. Just learn solid poker.

Btw it is very possible that yyou need to learn how to study too. I would google for productivty, learning articles. Also I would recommend both Jared Tendlers books. Good thing about those is that you can apply such thing in the real (non poker) life too. I do that. I apply that for photography, billiards I apply emotion related stuff to family issues etc.

" Again if i'm wrong, sorry guys"

Stop doing that. You need to go over other people heads and stop caring that much about what others think.

Hey,

I am not that familiar with zoom, because I do not play it myself (actually i tried some and I just don't like it. It doesn't fit my style. In addition I think that I would have lower winrate there).

I think it is pretty important to do statistical analysis based on players field. That means that you would be looking for numbers what average player do at some certain spots. So maybe that would be folding to 3bet in some particular situations, ability to steal and resteal. I recommend you not just looking for average numbers but looking how players are distributed in those list. And maybe then doing some categorization. Also you could want to look at some particular player groups, like how performs recreational players, what tendencies shortstackers has at X spot and similar stuff.

Here is some random report that i've choose to iliustrate what kind of stuff I would be doing:

So I can look to that data from various perspectives, filter for various sitautions and list by various criteria. Also I can export that data and using spreadsheet using quantile or quartile group players and get some categories, breakpoints. So I would start to work on entire player pool or exact parts of its and find ways to exploit their weaknesses. GTO fans will not like it, but I never thought that GTO approach is good thing. It could be good guideline when you are developing strategies and spotting where somebody (or maybe you yourself) are unbalanced, however poker is about ability to own and exploit somebody.

After you will find out various tendencies then just do math and find ways to exploit them. THere is no simple answer, because poker is not just some simple model. It doesn';t have one method to play. There should be set, most of the time non-related, strategies, that you will apply at some point. Thats all. And by working on your strategies each day you will be adding new weapons.

Made some simple model on crEV and ran some calculations.

X (columns) are how often BB is going to bet his non made hands (highcards)

Y (rows) are how often SB is going to x/f.

Conclusions would be: SB should be giving up a lot and SB should be pushing all in very often, that your call would be OK.

Fold pre: you have too weak hand do do anything there. In addition it will be multiway pot and there is short stacked player inside. best what you can expect is to hit draws and even then you will have just 30% of equity. Just fold pre.
Call flop: 

copy/pasting ruined format, so formated screenshot goes here: 

if Sb is x/raising, then you are not releasing any equity. SB will fold F.EQ is equity vs SB-43$*(1-f)+f((61+43*2)*EQ-43) > 0-43+43f + 147EQ*f-43f > 0147eq*f > 43f > 43/147 eq = ~0.3 / eq-----------------------------Lets assume that regular is going to play in that way JJ+ (24 combos)so depending on fish range that he would play in that way:TT+, AQ+: eq= ~45%, f > 67% or (~49 combos, so or folding 100% of AJs+, AJo+), it looks like BE. Depending on our assumptions we can fold or call more or less often (like I would expect him to cbet here a lot with his non made hands, so his fold equity range is reduced) . I would say fold, however it depends on assumptions.TT+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+, KQo; eq: 76%; f > 40% (just 16 combos for folding needed. If fish is shoving would be quite lose- clear call, not that big EV tho).TT+,AJs+,AJo+; EV ~52%, F > 58%, 33 combos to fold.You can even graph it using spreadhseet (sorry, to lazy to do so :|)

Pretty good candidate for analysis. If there will not be better ones then I will do study on it after friday.
Just want to clarify:
SB (me) raise first Ax(s/o) (suited and offsuit aces)
BB calls, (single raised pot)
"BB is defending his MDF based on your opening size" what is MDF?

If I made any mistakes by reading in your post please clarrify that. Actually I like that question a lot.

I dunno how to quote here, so I will just answer in plain text :)
"when you are playing, if you spot a super-huge leak what's your gameplan to exploit this frequency-wise and how do you keep track of it?"

Most of the time ranges are not shifting that much. So most times it is manipuliation of your value and bluffing range, when you change ratios. Depending on game play situation some additional hands could be added, however that would could alter opponent or other opponent strategies (for example cold 4bet as a bluff). In addition I would base that on other conditions. Is that fish? Does other do the same and you can't do anything else? Is he shortie, who can't deviate from his tables that much? Is he regular that could go mad and you know that would cause a lot of thin plays, very high variance and you would rather sacrifice fraction of EV to avoid this or avoid him spotting his mistake? There is plenty of criterias, that I would base my decision on.  But very best one is to do so based on ranges. That means that you want to do that based on X freaquency, and best way to measure it to have X corresponding range, build of highes equity hand, best blockers, best hands for multiple barreling. Also it is very possible that for different player exploitation you want to construct that range in very different way. Especially if you still want to have good other ranges, like CC range when you exploit opp by 3betting a lot.

"for example, say someone has a fold to 3 bet in a certain spot of 75%. (this is actually somewhat common for a few mid-stackers who open in early position). so 3 betting any 2 cards should show profit (esp vs a shortie where you can make your sizing smaller). would you just 3 bet a TON of the time here? or try to increase your frequency so it's higher than normal but imperceptible to the villain. "

Well shorties are extremely good candidates to 3bet, because:

 THey can't do anything and deviate much from their tables, also quite often shorties are worse players and just doesn't know how to adjust. In addition they could be multitabling a lot. In addition you have less danger of getting raped by 3rd player, because regulars are not that happy cold 4bet in such situations. I would 3bet them more, however that means that blockers and face cards are extremely important here.

"So say for example EP opens and folds to 3 bet 75% of the time...you are in the BB. Your overall BB vs EP 3 bet is say 6%. Would you 3 bet 30% of the time? and see how long you can get away with it? Or 3 bet 11% of the time and hope he never catches on?"

If he can't adjust, then I would be raising him much more. Remember that sitation when you are BB, UTG openend and everybody else folded is not that common, for example numbers from my DB:
sample: ~158k hands
Occurencies of that condition: ~1,5k, or a little bit less than 1% :) so if we will do that to exploit Exact position vs position then nobody will see that. But still I would stick to hands that I think are playable hands. K3s is playable one tho :|

"another example would be say a guy folds to c/r on the button 70% of the time and your normal c/r is 15%...would you start c/r 40% until he gets fed up and does something silly? or would you c/r 22% and hope he never catches on that you are increasing you frequency vs him only?"

Well this number is too extreme and unlikely, however you need to remember that there is always other techniques to win pots. You will have ace highs and made hands, you will have good candidates for floating and bluffing at various spots, you need to base your play just on one exploitable leak that you found. And mix that. Sometims 3bet him more, sometimes bluff him more. DO not take such exploitative lines excessively. Also BTN open vs you, when you are in blinds will occur just less than 10% (8,9% in my db) of the time and even then your SB and BB ranges will be very different. DO NOT COUNT ON JUST ONE LEAK., have a plan and range suitable for it.

"and if so, how do you mentally keep track of this so you don't "blow your cover" that you discovered this leak?"

i think i've developed feeling and I do not that too far. Also sometimes I play too many tables or worse game for some other reason so that controls my frequencies too. 

Nobody is asking questions. I guess nobody see that as freeroll where they can win? Being shy is not the way to achieve something in the life.

OK, after thinking a bit I found soliution, that I think is best.

So I think, that tagging system is best. While filesystem is not good at that and it is not great way to do either. So external tool should be used for that.

It is possible to do that with spreadsheet or something like that, however I am not big fan and it is possible that it would be not that easy to filter out interesting stuff from there.

So I am going to use tool that I use daily- Evernote.

So for those files I am going to create separate notebook and each file will go like separate note there. After adding new file you tag it,for example MSS (mid stack strategy), 3bet, IP (in position),  f:cbet t:cbet; r:cbet; and if needed more additional info.
Now if I would choose t:cbet and r:cbet flags, then I would get all hands where turn and river cbets was made. And this hand would be in that list too.

In file itself you can add file link and maybe even file itself. Now programms has option to export file as text block, so that is very cool- you can put it out there and never loose, because evernote is cloud sotware. ALso if you will do a lot of file modificatioins, you can have history or store all data related to that file,. like multiple graphs, if you don't want to change assumptions again and again and your conclusions.

"Nevertheless I think that preflop-ranges matter more than you suggested, i.e. a S2b-b-b-b - A is completely different if it´s UTG vs. MP than it´s BTN vs. BB (obviously :D). "

While it is true, still it doesn't change tree itself. Yes, ranges will be different, however definition what is thin valuebet, good hand and bluffacther will change too. That means that still it is quite possible to develop complex models and actually we should be doing so! At least I do that. FOr single hand solving I use other tools, but for complex scenarios, involving different bet, stack sizings, ranges I use crEV and I make it more flexible.

Position flag could be important one

""Very similar example would be S2b-b-b-b-C, where you was caller in single raised pot and now you are facing 3barrel"Wouldn´t this mean (according to your system), that WE are shortstacked preflop raiser and fire 3 barrels?"

Yes, you are correct, however there is two players. And one of them will always be aggressor, betting all 3 streets, and another one will be calling and facing river bet. So in general you should solve that hand from range vs range perspective, but not vs hand vs range perspective. then there will not be any troubles in whos shoes are you.

Hey, if you want somebody help you then don't make us decipher your painting.

Just export ranges and provide it as range. use equilab, combonator, pokerstove, cardrunners EV or something like this. Just provide us normal range :|

Jesus, just tried to put that range into combonator- it is absolutely masochism! (facepalm)

Provideo screen shots from specified tools + exported ranges.

I just tilted myself even trying to read that diagram :|

His preflop range:
http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k482/Ninja666mdk/2012-12-08_12-08-27.png
weight - 50%

You hold Kc and board Has nut flush Ace, so a lot of flush combos are blocked. Also he would have a lot of combo draws, that he would fast play- FD + gutshot, FD+ pair. He has very few flushes in his range IMHO.

River range distribution:
http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k482/Ninja666mdk/2012-12-08_12-25-00.png

X/C - It depends what kind of player villain is. If he is thinking then he will not valuebet worse there imho. Also he has so little possible bluffs (even those will be discounted due fold or raise on earlier street or checking it back cuz he has SD equity). Good against bluffy guys, guys who are valuebetting too thin.

C/F - looks close. Better against straight forward players.

Bet / ?
http://i1112.photobucket.com/albums/k482/Ninja666mdk/2012-12-08_12-32-41.png
In this range AK are excluded because we do not benefit from that part cuz most likely that he is just going to call.

So now depending on villain tendencies we decide:
If he fold to much, we doesn't shove.
If he calls too much - we shove

And if betsizing will change his opinion what to do - we bet lower. However it is important to note that his possible bluffing range is much narrower than his valuebetting range and it is not that likely that he turn into bluff Ax or valuebet worse if we will bet smaller, so It looks like b/f if we r betting smaller.