TimberSK
0 points
SB: $26.42
BB: $71.54
UTG: $26.25
HJ: $25
CO: $29
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, SB folds, BB raises to $5.10, CO folds, Hero calls $3.60
In game I thought he could have AsQx although he will not 4bet this very often, QsQx although he might not always rejam turn with that. I mainly thought of protecting myself against single spades and thus wanted to play it fast, but looking at it now I think I rarely get it in good and should just check behind turn and decide on given rivers under consideration of suit and his bet sizing and other tells. Stacking off this way just does not seem very good. His two most likely holdings when getting it in seem to be AsAx and AsKx, I figure.
May 18, 2014 | 9:19 a.m.
May 16, 2014 | 8:04 p.m.
Well, Getready2rokk, opinions on this seem to diverge, don't they? Above
post by R G sounds very reasonable to me. We can still 4bet-fold
against unknown, being UTG and 200bb deep on NL25 Zoom. That said, I
feel I want to mix it up about 50/50 maybe. You still think you want to
call 100%?
May 16, 2014 | 6:42 p.m.
SB: $30.75
BB: $26.32
UTG: $30.41
HJ: $37.31 (Hero)
CO: $25.35
UTG raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BN folds, SB folds, BB folds
Until the Turn I can see a lot of AcX, AA-99 that might fold on the River but when he leads I feel this is almost exclusively full houses or better. What do you think?
The reason I am asking is that I did try to bluff in game and want to learn what I can from it going wrong.
May 16, 2014 | 6:20 p.m.
Thanks all of you! He did show AA and without any history I would like to see myself fold in this exact situation in the future.
May 16, 2014 | 6:10 p.m.
I am new to the player pool, thus my question. Still, your answer has already helped.
May 14, 2014 | 6:05 p.m.
SB: $26.95
BB: $50.66
UTG: $48.35 (Hero)
HJ: $26.56
CO: $27.10
Hero raises to $0.75, HJ calls $0.75, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, BB raises to $3, Hero raises to $6.70, HJ folds, BB raises to $50.66, and is all in, Hero calls $41.65, and is all in
May 14, 2014 | 4:54 p.m.
May 14, 2014 | 4:48 p.m.
May 14, 2014 | 4:45 p.m.
Thanks, I like it.
May 14, 2014 | 2:15 p.m.
Thanks, I guess I tend to go "Nah, this guy has not even 50bb, plays 47/23, I am not folding a hand as good as this." Guess that kind of thinking has been costing me some money… ;)
May 14, 2014 | 2:13 p.m.
I agree, pretty spewy… thanks!
May 14, 2014 | 2:11 p.m.
As I asked below: How do you decide upon cbet sizing in general? I tend to bet larger when I see villain is quite loose, thus my large bet here. Also here, I thought I bet big to have him pay a lot with most pocket pairs as we have overcards so often.
May 14, 2014 | 2:07 p.m.
I kept one combo of KK in his preflop calling range for the sake of the possibility he will do that sometimes? QQ and AKs I should have taken away at least half of the combos I guess.
How do you decide upon cbet sizing in general? I tend to bet larger when I see villain is quite loose, thus my large bet here. Also here, I thought I bet big to have him pay a lot with most pocket pairs as we have overcards so often.
May 14, 2014 | 2:06 p.m.
CO: $25
BN: $10
SB: $31.59 (Hero)
BB: $29.13
UTG: $25
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.75, BN folds, Hero raises to $2.80, BB folds, CO calls $2.05
May 12, 2014 | 3:45 p.m.
SB: $11.23
BB: $25 (Hero)
CO: $40.37
The very previous hand I was caught trying to bluff the river (http://www.runitonce.com/nlhe/sb-w-t9s-vs-bb-squeeze-overplayed-n/#91147) and might now be perceived as tilting.
SB 4bb opening size is his standard.
CO folds, BN folds, SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.10, SB calls $2.10
May 12, 2014 | 3:33 p.m.
BB: $11.98
CO: $34.08 (Hero)
BN: $30.23
My own image is quite laggy at this point (which I seem to ignore in this hand).
Hero raises to $0.75, BN calls $0.75, SB folds, BB calls $0.50
May 12, 2014 | 3:24 p.m.
Sounds reasonable to me to lead the turn here (betting something around $7,00 to make it look as though we could get away?). What he might overplay then are the flush draws and potentially AsKx and 88-77 if he is very aggressive, although I find the latter unlikely. Interested to see what others say though as I barely have leading ranges in these situations at this moment. Plus, I guess I have to agree on what you say about him almost never folding after this big of a turn cbet so that the above ranges should be too optimistic.
May 12, 2014 | 10:11 a.m.
Thank you m_zeal,
True, I missed that! Here I go:
So, assuming he holds 39 hand combinations when betting and folds 6 of them (15,38%) to a shove.
Shove EV:
(15,38% * $25,00) + (84,62% * 28% * $50,75)
-
(84,62% * 72% * $17,75)
=
$15,87 - $10,81 = $5,06
I win $5,06 on that shove with these ranges then, right?
You say we had no calling range if we were to fold the turn here if we 3bet TT pre. Since we do not want to call the turn but shove it, do we have any calling range at all here then? Do we want one?
May 12, 2014 | 8:19 a.m.
SB: $59.84 (Hero)
BB: $25
HJ: $28.33
CO: $35.43
BTN 29/9
BB 18/14
Seen BB semi-bluffing and turning 3rd pair into bluff on river once so far.
HJ folds, CO folds, BN raises to $0.75, Hero calls $0.65, BB raises to $3, BN folds, Hero calls $2.25
Then I decide to call the squeeze and play fit or fold here. Any comments?
1. Would you ever fold (with the only above-mentioned read)?
2. With the sizing, do you give him any non-spades unpaired overcards?
My reasoning to shove was to protect my pair against overcards but thinking of it now I see few to none of them.
3. Does the following make sense?
His range after his turn bet: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,KsQs,7h6h,7s6s,6h5h,6s5s,AsKc,AsKd
Value heavy, but I give him a few bluffs and semi-bluffs.
Against that range I have 37,8% equity.
His range after his turn call: TT+,AsKs,AsQs,6s5s
My equity is 28% here.
My price for calling his turn cbet: $9,50 to win $24,75 = 38,4% (vs my 37,8%)
My price for setting him all-in: $17,75 to win $50,75 = 35% (vs my 28%)
Thus, my shove is bad as I have way too little equity against his calling range.
Also, unless he has more bluffs than I think it is not even a call.
4. Considering I call the turn, what would be your move on certain river cards?
My guess is that he could possibly fold Ac high to a minraise, call w/ an 8 and higher pocket pairs and reraise his Jacks whereas he could maybe sometimes an 8 or worse to a shove and a shove only.
The fact remains it is a bad bluff, but these seem to be quite a leak of mine and I am looking into the details now. Hence my question about the sizing of a potential bluff.
May 17, 2014 | 12:11 p.m.