This_noob
3 points
Ah shieeet.... I must have messed up the inputs on PPT :/ Ladies and Gents, these are the effects of sleep deprivation!
Gael, thanks for setting me straight- really appreciate it :)
July 6, 2016 | 7:50 a.m.
Hi Everyone
I've been trying to compile a spreadsheet of equity comparisons for some contentious spots by analysing them with propokertools. In doing so, I've come across a number of spots which I had previously thought that I had a grasp on, but am now seeing that I may have misunderstood or misapplied them. Some of the problems I think are NLHM legacy issues whereas some are just misunderstanding or lack of knowledge on my part. My question is a bit long-winded and I apologize in advance for that. Any help, as always, is appreciated.
Below is an example:
[Please note that the example will, for the most part, focus on equities as face up and not so much on player characteristics and ranges.]
$2/4, 4 handed $622 eff stacks.
SB posts $2
BB posts $4
UTG limps $4
Hero ($622) is the BTN (AsKdTh3c) and raises to $16
SB folds
BB calls $12
UTG calls $12
POT $50
Flop: QsJs2c
SB checks
UTG Bets pot ($50)
Hero Calls ($50)
SB Calls (50$)
Pot $200
Turn: Td
SB bets pot ($200)
UTG calls ($200)
Note on Hero's thoughts: At this point it is very likely that UTG has a set and that SB (for simplicity's sake) either has the AK straight or air. I discount naked flush draws as I'm holding the Ace of Spades and I'm blocking combo draws to some extent.
Hero Shoves for $556 into $600
SB folds
UTG Calls $356 and shows (JJxx).
The river is irrelevant for our purposes
When I saw this call, naturally I was quite happy because I thought that UTG was making a mistake by calling because on the turn, I'm ahead and, he would not have enough equity to justify the call. I then ran some numbers and found out that both my assumptions were incorrect- at least the way that I'm calculating it (which may be incorrect cause I suck at math... like really... even the most basic shit).
I have SB calling 356 to win 1512 which is equal to ($556 shove + $600 pot+ his $356 call). That being the case, he only needs 24% on the turn to break even. Propokertools has his equity on 36% on this hand. In fact any bare set vs any bare nut straight on the turn = 36%.
That got me thinking, and this is where I would like some help, In any given moment in PLO we need 33.3% equity to break even because calling a pot sized bet leads us to commit 33.3% to win 100%. (Eg: (200 pot) + (200 bet) + (200 call) = 600. Therefore our 200 call nets 600 and that ratio is 1:3 or 33.3%.
That being the case, does that mean that whenever we're in a similar spot as SB above, but are facing a perfect pot bet for our stack, we should be happy to stack off knowing that Villain has a straight because we are netting 2-3%? Previously, I have been snap-folding sets on similar turns and feeling really good about it. However, I'm not so sure anymore...
Although mathematically this makes sense (If all we're worried about is breaking even or pushing thin equities against a tough field), It seems so wrong to be constantly calling when we're behind on the turn. Especially since this game is already so full of that "Oh-So-Sweet-Variance"!
So in a nutshell, is anyone ever happy to get it in like this? If so, I fear I may be approaching this game wrong (which is worrisome because I've been playing it for a while now :/).
July 5, 2016 | 8:37 a.m.
Agreed ^
June 15, 2016 | 7:31 p.m.
PokerStars Hand #144977818957: Tournament #1399692428, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XII (150/300) - 2015/12/07 19:29:34 CET [2015/12/07 13:29:34 ET]
Table '1399692428 54' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: d3km4n (14085 in chips)
Seat 2: Redivius (8315 in chips)
Seat 3: ramiroak (4210 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 4: fototaza (16674 in chips)
Seat 5: KAIKAO1986 (21955 in chips)
Seat 6: PIIKAACHU (7724 in chips)
Seat 7: Thisnoob (18329 in chips)
Seat 8: aramio29 (4415 in chips)
Seat 9: amiramir74 (12122 in chips)
d3km4n: posts the ante 40
Redivius: posts the ante 40
ramiroak: posts the ante 40
fototaza: posts the ante 40
KAIKAO1986: posts the ante 40
PIIKAACHU: posts the ante 40
Thisnoob: posts the ante 40
aramio29: posts the ante 40
amiramir74: posts the ante 40
PIIKAACHU: posts small blind 150
Thisnoob: posts big blind 300
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to Thisnoob [Qc Qh]
aramio29: folds
amiramir74: folds
d3km4n: raises 360 to 660
Redivius: folds
ramiroak: folds
fototaza: raises 15974 to 16634 and is all-in
KAIKAO1986: folds
PIIKAACHU: folds
Thisnoob: ???
Villain is 14/14/9 after 29 hands.
3bettor is 24/20/6.8 after 125 hands.
Dec. 9, 2015 | 4:09 p.m.
PokerStars Hand #145031867249: Tournament #1399692432, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (200/400) - 2015/12/08 19:39:04 CET [2015/12/08 13:39:04 ET]
Table '1399692432 1' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: AttiIa88 (20994 in chips)
Seat 2: Riverbanged (23861 in chips)
Seat 3: nado zanosit (8397 in chips)
Seat 4: gucciguy69 (13889 in chips)
Seat 5: poker@luffyD (10657 in chips)
Seat 6: KILLERPUC87 (4614 in chips)
Seat 7: 7SainT7 (3334 in chips)
Seat 8: sombrero21 (14505 in chips)
Seat 9: Thisnoob (20435 in chips)
AttiIa88: posts the ante 50
Riverbanged: posts the ante 50
nado zanosit: posts the ante 50
gucciguy69: posts the ante 50
poker@luffyD: posts the ante 50
KILLERPUC87: posts the ante 50
7SainT7: posts the ante 50
sombrero21: posts the ante 50
Thisnoob: posts the ante 50
gucciguy69: posts small blind 200
poker@luffyD: posts big blind 400
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to Thisnoob [7h 7d]
KILLERPUC87: folds
7SainT7: folds
sombrero21: folds
Thisnoob: raises 400 to 800
AttiIa88: folds
Riverbanged: folds
nado zanosit: raises 7547 to 8347 and is all-in
gucciguy69: folds
poker@luffyD: folds
This_noob: folds
Uncalled bet (7547) returned to nado zanosit
nado zanosit collected 2650 from pot
Opponent is 24/22/11 after 33 hands so the sample is quite small.
Am I a NIT?
Against a range of 10% I have 42% equity. After villains shove I have 44% pot odds so It's a snap call in terms of EV (If my range assumption is correct). But Villain has 20BB so I'm not sure that my range assumption is correct but for arguments sake lets say it is.
Should I be calling in these situations, given that I think my edge is big enough that I don't feel comfortable with a flip (best-case scenario).
Dec. 9, 2015 | 3:59 p.m.
Hi Guys
Please give me your thoughts in regard to this hand:
PokerStars Hand #145027361704: Tournament #1399692490, $10.00+$2.50+$1.00 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (30/60) - 2015/12/08 18:16:37 CET [2015/12/08 12:16:37 ET]
Table '1399692490 8' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ElKarson21 (3330 in chips)
Seat 2: Ikmpnp (3123 in chips)
Seat 3: cznsnowy91 (4040 in chips)
Seat 4: pellompogos (2925 in chips)
Seat 5: gwen pe (1321 in chips)
Seat 6: greg6200 (2002 in chips)
Seat 7: Thisnoob (6446 in chips)
Seat 8: ebadia (2535 in chips)
Seat 9: orin159 (3147 in chips)
greg6200: posts small blind 30
Thisnoob: posts big blind 60
* HOLE CARDS
Dealt to This_noob [7s Ts]
ebadia: folds
orin159: folds
ElKarson21: folds
Ikmpnp: folds
cznsnowy91: raises 90 to 150
pellompogos: folds
gwen pe: folds
greg6200: folds
This_noob: raises 210 to 360
cznsnowy91: calls 210
FLOP [7h 2c Jc]
This_noob: bets 345
cznsnowy91: calls 345
TURN [7h 2c Jc] [7d]
This_noob: bets 878
cznsnowy91: calls 878
RIVER [7h 2c Jc 7d] [Ac]
This_noob: checks
cznsnowy91: checks
SHOW DOWN *
Thisnoob: shows [7s Ts] (three of a kind, Sevens)
cznsnowy91: mucks hand
Thisnoob collected 3196 from pot
OK, so my reasoning for checking the river is that I don't think I get called by worse when considering a range that reaches the river. I think the very bottom of villain's calling range would have to be AJ (in a vacuum); but I think AJ+ shows more aggression on either flop / turn so I dont think I can include this hand in his range. I don't think he has any 7's either as even A7s doesn't call many 3 bets (at least not that I've seen). So in this hand I think I'm either up against a single paired J or a made flush. If I shove, the J folds but the flush calls. So my decision here is to check and decide.
At the time of this hand I was leaning towards check-calling with a higher frequency than I would check-fold due to the fact that I have a very good bluff catcher (in that my hand is so under-repped).But now I'm realizing that his range is so well defined in this spot that I don't think I can call a shove as any J is happy to take the showdown. Is my reasoning flawed? Am I leaving money at the table by not shoving river? Are people at low stakes actually capable of shoving this without a flush?
As a side note, how often do you think people will turn their J into a bluff on this river to avoid a split / to get opponent off KK/QQ when checked to? Is it even worth considering?
Btw, villain is 26/21/25 in 39 hands so sample is largely useless :)
Dec. 9, 2015 | 3:49 p.m.
I ended up folding this hand after the flop 4bet and Villain showed KK...
Thanks to all of you for the input.
Sept. 16, 2015 | 7:48 a.m.
@TheLuckier: That's an interesting strategy and might work in certain situations depending on what your objectives are. I just feel that its so fishy limp-3betting in Ep as it turns our hand face up. Also at a table where people are really call-heavy and passive (as this one was), I think that we end up seeing to many limped family pots by doing this.
Sept. 16, 2015 | 7:46 a.m.
Hey Aaron
I'd like to start this reply with a huge disclaimer: I am by no means an ICM veteran, in fact I'm still working through this concept myself. With that said, here's my 2 cents:
Ok so the hand. I think all of your considerations are valid, but I also think there are a few things that you need to consider which you may not have:
1) Your BB is the bigstack at the table:
This sucks because you are not gonna exerting any ICM pressure on him by shoving so he is most likely going to be calling you lighter BvB because he knows that you're going to be fairly wide here. Hell, even if you're tight, he can call u off and still only lose 15% of his stack. More importantly, with your stack size he's just gonna shrug call a fairly wide range because of the odds and the fact that he's closing the action.
2) ICM Pressure:
If I understand one of the basic concepts of ICM correctly, one needs to be more conservative when shorter and more aggressive when deeper (in relation to opponents). Therefore, although it would be correct to threaten someones tournament life by shoving J2o when you have them covered (especially on the bubble or at significant pay differences), in this situation you arent exerting any pressure at all. I think you'll get looked up way too often and that's not even taking into consideration villain's stats (I'm just going by the assumption that he's competent since its a FT)
3) Position:
You're in the SB, you're gonna have a whole rotation to try to pick up a better hand than J2. Yes, there are antes involved but even if you end up shoving ATC utg, you will still have a stack of ~185K which is 7.4 BB (not too much difference from your starting 8 BB).
4) Absolute Card strength:
J2 is just a terrible hand that plays awfully against anyone's calling range, so we basically just give up every time we get called. I like to have a little more to go with. And me being human, i know I would hate myself for busting with J2 on the FT, esp when (if this is on stars) the payouts jump so drastically between 6th and 3rd place.
I would like to hear other peeps opinion of this hand. If I've made some incorrect assumptions or just plainly got things wrong let me know. After all we're here to learn :)
Peace
TL;DR
Fold, wait for a better spot.
Sept. 15, 2015 | 1:13 p.m.
@LlJag:
What combination of hands do you think comprise his range?
Out of interest, how would you react if villain was 23/18 as opposed to 44/11? Do you think his perceived range would remain the same if this were the case?
Sept. 10, 2015 | 4:04 p.m.
@Piterlanguila:
Can you elaborate on why we are never folding here? Even if (for argument's sake) we believe that we have defined villain's range to be ahead of us by quite a margin.
I agree with the initial raise, sometimes I miss these things multi-tabling.
Sept. 10, 2015 | 3:54 p.m.
^true story
Sept. 10, 2015 | 9:42 a.m.
Hello Peeps
This is my first thread, 2nd post on ROI. I came across this spot a few days ago and was wondering whether any of you in this great community would like to share your thoughts. During play I was convinced that I made the right move, but after my hand I ended up chatting quite extensively to another player who had a different opinion. That got me to thinking and that thinking led me here. So without more rambling, lets dive in...
PokerStars Hand #140489878604: Tournament #1315097378, $10+$10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level V (40/80) - 2015/09/07 17:35:36 CET [2015/09/07 11:35:36 ET]
Table '1315097378 72' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: MP 2 (3880 in chips)
Seat 2: CO (2715 in chips)
Seat 3: BTN (2590 in chips)
Seat 4: VILLAIN (8930 in chips)
Seat 5: BB (200 in chips)
Seat 6: UTG (2910 in chips)
Seat 7: HERO (4458 in chips)
Seat 8: EP 2 (2840 in chips)
Seat 9: MP 1 (3730 in chips)
This is a KO Tourney, Hero has 3 bounties thus far....
* HOLE CARDS *
Dealt to This_noob [Qs Qc]
UTG: folds
HERO: raises 80 to 160
EP 2: folds
MP 1: folds
MP 2: folds
CO: calls 160
BTN: calls 160
VILLAIN: calls 120
BB: raises 40 to 200 and is all-in
HERO: calls 40
CO: calls 40
BTN: calls 40
SB: calls 40
* FLOP * [9d 8d 3c]
SB: bets 400
HERO: raises 720 to 1120
CO: folds
BTN: folds
SB: raises 7610 to 8730 and is all-in
HERO: ... ????
OK. Some stats on Villain (from memory because I'm at work and don't have access to HM2):
Passive fish, playing 44/11. 3bet stat was really small.. probably around 3ish? My sample size wasn't very large, but large enough to pick up general tendencies (I think).
Any thoughts on Villain's range, our equity vs his range, our actions preflop, postflop and whether to call or fold are most welcome.
I will post the hand result and the reasons behind my actions after a few comments.
Sept. 10, 2015 | 9:39 a.m.
I have to agree with Chigh1, but I'll elaborate:
With all due respect to davidnso, I don't like the way you played this hand at all. If anyone disagrees or has any thoughts to add, please contribute to the discussion as I think these kind of spots are trouble for a few players.
First off, before considering a call pre-flop we need to consider villain's range, its a bit tough to do without history or sample size, but in a vacuum i would guess that Villain playing 23/12 is competent and not overly aggressive. With that assumption, plus the fact that he raised 3x; I think his utg range is going to be super standard- prob top 10-15%.
The problem with calling with KQ is that we are either crushed by a number of his possible starting hands (AQ,AK,KK,QQ,AA), flipping against all pairs 77-JJ and facing around 60-40? against his weaker possible utg opens like AJs/AJo. I dont have pokerstove with me as I'm at work but I can't see us having an edge over his utg range here( I estimate that we have around 40-45%? please correct me if I'm wrong). That being the case, we are gonna face some tough decisions by flatting here.
While I think KQs should definitely be in our calling range in some spots, I don't think this is one of them. However i don't like 3betting either for much the same reasons as listed above. Plus we are never getting very many folds here. Thus we are essentially turning a hand with good post-flop equity into a bluff against a solid utg range which has plenty of potential to 4bet us or call our ship.
Therefore, without being able to confidently 3bet or call, the only option left to us is to fold.
As played however,
Assuming there are no antes, the pot = 450(blinds) + 900 (utg) + 900 (hero) = 2250
Villain overships for 6947, but since he covers you, essentially he ships it for 5853. This is a really weird bet for me in a vacuum, but given your reads you are never ahead if you put him on 99+. Therefore we are looking at 9 flush outs+ MAYBE 6 overcards (but given that half his perceived range is QQ/KK/AA, I think we can discount these). So essentially we are looking at a flushdraw (I wont consider the effects of him having possibly AcKx/JcJx etc) with 9 outs.
Villain bets 5853 into a pot of 2250. Without doing any calculations you can see that this is not a profitable call. More specifically you allow your opponent to play perfectly against you all day every day by getting max value when you're a 80/20 dog.Sure if you win you will add utility to your stack (approx 14k), but the question you need to ask is whether that utility is worth busting 4/5 times. I think the answer is no. We can wait for better spots.
All in all, I think the call preflop was a mistake and then I think you compounded this mistake by calling the overbet shove on the flop.
TL;DR
Look at your opponent, look at how pretty the cards are, sigh, then fold pre-flop.
Thanks Tom. Much appreciated!
July 8, 2016 | 3:37 p.m.