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Demondoink I think it's time to be an Elite coach ! I'm serious. You will do a great coach.

I watched on my past account more than 1000 videos, absolutely never before a video like this would have been posted even for free. I mean we have guy like Luke , Jericho, Slasky , Nuno and many other strong regs, and one guy opening J6o vs one of the best player in the world and open JTo 2.5 utg while eating snacks.

He was a good player but with no harsh I think now some nl200 players are better than him from what I saw from his game. It feels where you stop playing or when you're not in the game anymore, your level automatically drops.

In live he is good tho I think, even if he doesn't fully explain his thinking process.

It's "1.5"
1 = strong pro
2 = rec
Vs 1's I will hardly exploit, moreso just COUNTERexploit if I suspect something is up. Vs 1.5's, I'll be a little more aggressive with my exploits.

Ok, funny cause he has a decent wr on a decent sample size.

Which spot ?

KQo 3:50

W/ exactly Ts I don't think it's too relevant. Ax is more damning than the Tx here.
Unless I expect them to bluffraise me too much vs 1/3p, I will always size 2/3p vs a rec here without caring too much about my blockers, as generally speaking, their inelasticity>my blockers

Agree for the blocker part , I'm ok with 1/3, 3 weeks ago I wanted to size bigger but now I changed my mind I want to bet 1/3 haha. You I think if you go bigger and they start folding often it's really bad for our EV, compared to the scenario where they call more our EV will not so higher than 1/3 as most of them will have some kind of elasticity.

We can never fold turn vs this player type. He can just have a bunch of worse Ax w/ or w/o a diamond raising because it's gone XXX otf and only 1/3p ott. Folding would be a considerable mistake

I totally disagree with you on this point; it's late for me now so I'm gonna edit and develop my answer tomorrow; but I'm sure here I can make you change your mind on this one maybe ! And of course I might be wrong but have high certainty in this spot that folding has to be considered.

Hey, finally, I'm the master of procrastination, discussion is interesting , I should have answered before, sorry about that.
I agree about XR sizings. I tend to prefer using larger ones, but if you have a better idea of how the villain reacts (improving clairvoyance) or if simplification doesn't result in a significant EV loss, then it's perfectly fine; you're right.

"Definitely legit. I prefer 70/200 over 70/AI here. This is just personal preference."

From my experience, going ALLIN in these spots works really well against recreational players. Most of them start to fear losing their entire stack, associating emotionally this situation with past instances where they called and lost what they had on the table or site. Most of them (except the whales one or dumb players (poker wise I mean)) will also analyse the spot empirically and the "I'm never good" comes often.
I would say it also depends on the site, on gg for exemple recs are more tight compared to Winamax recs (way more crazy and volatile, so I took this move only if I have enough reads on vilain).

You apply pressure to a point where they stop thinking (for a portion of the overall recreational player population). I also like the 200-sized bet. I generally prefer increasing my bet size when I'm torn between two sizes in this situation.

Empirically, I've noticed that the average EV difference between option A and B in these types of situations slightly favors the bigger sizing option. So, when I'm unsure, I tend to go for the maximum bet size that I believe is best.
Also even if it's marginal there is the "I saw you bluffing big" factor when you got called, and after that sometimes I saw crazy calls + the sub pop actually calling this betsizing will also call bigger one later when we will be in value.

About A7, you were right. I ran a simulation on PIO, and both combos were mixing, whereas on Wizard, it primarily takes A2. So, it was a slight mistake on my part.

Regarding his call, for example, I think you may have overlooked some parameters. Some players would consider timing and, in your shoes, it's reasonable to assume that many players would think more with the high one-club region between B and x. However, you have clear checks here, which fit more into a snap call range. I'm not suggesting you have timing tells here, but he might interpret your timing as one. Maybe he didn't care, but if we consider all the reasons he called, timing might be one of them, so we should be more careful next time to see if he is exploiting real timing tells you have or just if he is exploiting himself with his false perception of your timing tells.
In both cases we can use this info at our advantage.

"It's important to note that BB is a weaker player here. Not a VIP, but also not a winning online high-stakes pro. As alluded to in the video, my general philosophy is that if you have good pot odds and give a weaker player enough hands, they'll make enough mistakes. So, I sigh call. This came to fruition. It's also a completely whatever spot, as we'll never really know the makeup of BTN's/BB's ranges, therefore I don't try to infer what I think they're doing in such a vanilla (XXX XXX b50) node. Whether they overvalue/undervalue bets or bluffs will, at best, be speculation on our part. As it is, they bet with a hand I wasn't expecting. Bluff-raising is a very interesting idea. Against a better player, I like it more and think it would perform well. However, in my experience against these weaker player types, they end up being way too attached to their top pair value bets and don't fold enough."

I tend to agree and also disagree with this. Yes, if you raise with a normal sizing, fishes will call with top pair here, but if you start using a 40bb sizing, most of them fold their entire range as dp+ is more diluted into bigger sizing or check trap lines.

The way I think about the spot is:
I analyze the fish by categorizing them into a subset of fish with similar playing styles, etc.
Then I consider how the average recreational player in this subset plays and try to make as many correlations as I can.
In this case, for example, the subset of players with this VPIP/PFR range are players who understand the game to some extent. This means that the probability of an element being present in both sets of [players with a VPIP/PFR of 25/20] and [players folding top pair in this spot when you raise 40bb] is quite high to me. And I have a high enough certainty to go for the raise here, expecting a high EV move. (I wouldn't do it if the EV were only slightly positive because if the villain starts always calling, the EV distribution becomes disastrous. If I can't win 90/100% of the pot in this situation, I tend not to make the bluff. When you make a marginal bluff, let's say the villain has a folding threshold (which happens when they are not capped), the EV is slightly above zero, and if we add the case where the villain calls everything, you either win a small amount or lose a large one. It's a bad EV distribution so I don't take these spots.
If he can fold everything then I took the move. As the maxEV scenario compensate the minEV scenario due to the max ev scenario happening more frequently.

About your 2.5x 3B sizing, did you work with Monker or a Preflop solver on this? I think you're the only one I've seen doing it.

About A24 A35, we don't have the same simulation. But yeah, I didn't take into consideration the opening sizing. So you're right. What do you think about range checking as the BB if you open with more than 2.5x? I checked, and the EV loss is actually quite marginal (only some hands want to bet purely, like a low set). Against this range, the villain has to play close to zero probability, and it's not something people will do. What do you think about it? I started implementing it on low connected boards and A2 low cards, 5x or lower+two-tone and monotone boards.

I don't think calling with AT is that bad, but it seems like a fold to me. I ran a postflop 3-way simulation of this spot two weeks ago, and this hand was a mandatory fold against this sizing. But of course, I didn't mention that the BB is a recreational player here.

Hey Luke Johnson thank for your response, I rod them at the time didn't put the time to answer.
Will answer you in max few days.

You play very well there, congrats mate !

0:40 what is green tag exactly ? You said it's weaker player but how weaker ? I play sometimes vs Samu Alto, his strat looks too simple, is that the reason you put him in green ?

4:40 what do you think about betting 1.5bb here ?

14:20 Very good point, completely agree with you.

20:03 don't you think 1.2bb is better ? Blocking the Tx region is not good for using a big size and if he starts folding everything that is not a T we are really not in good shape.

39:20 seems a fold to me on the turn. Most of them are going to raise nuts and call the one d region. If you have reads on this guy of course why not but seems quite difficult to even call turn as in the worst scenario you loose -7.3bb. It's close tho , but prefer to fold.
River super clear fold imho, you rep a ton of strong hands, he bets , he need to find the random no EQ hand raised turn + bet river.
Almost never going to happen.

41:00 nice play, and also we can mention that Kx might re raise turn so he will be even
weaker vs XR and bet OTR.

48 T4s always call for me, even if the solver raises I don't like it it's terrible for our hand to get rejam here.

23:26 what do you think about folding the 0EV hands , nobody will notice and you just gain more $/h by having a spot vs the VIP faster ?

Nice video

2:23 I think you choose the wrong XR size, if you want to raise only the strong Qx and due to the texture I think a raise around 10x makes more sense.

What do you think of going AI on the river ?

3:16 IMHO you're making a mistake by saying A7 should bluff before A2. The most important here is to have an anti removal in the XF region. 77 blocks pocket 7 and A7, K7 whereas A2 blocks less XF here. Don't have access to the solver when I write this but it seems you've selected the wrong combo.
Doesn't seem a big mistake, tho especially if you control your frec.
I also think his call is not +EV but it should be really close anyway.

Also I don't think saying directly his play is bad is productive. I already play him and he definitely knows his stuff. Not the best but by far not the worst. They might be some factors in the hand or prior this hand that made him think in this spot at this moment against you it was a +EV call, and it makes more sense to me to look for them if they are any.

14:52 I would have folded here. I think the value region is super wide. And we might win against JT J9 but I don't think it's enough to find a call. I don't think players 3 way with a VIP in the pot are going to bluff this sizing. Also in the eventually of him not bluffing and not VB less than QJ. We lose ~3.8bb in EVs. If he has some cuts the call will be around 0. So clear fold to me. What do you think of bluff raising here ? It seems his Kx region would be in a super tough spot. We can have 65 66 pure.

15:37 would be surprising to see 99 in the betting line 60% of the time on the flop. I agree A42 is better than A53 but overall A+ 2 low cards are not that great for IP as several run outs makes your EQ drops significantly and on many run out you don't have a clear VB with the strong Ax region. Also he now has many hands in his ranges who might turn into the nuts, which is not something you encounter at A63.
So I assume the difference between A42r and A53s is not big enough to have a way higher cb frequency.

17:00 ATo pre shouldn't be a call in gto. Mandatory call with the VIP in the BB tho. Flop don't you think it's too loose to call when he CBet into two players and the rec being in the pot ? Also he has all the pp and the suited broadway region to call before.

21:00 I like your call with KJ here, but I would have loved to see you jam here aha. Jam seems superior in EV, having the better removal effect blocking JJ (JJ might go in an other size river tho). What will you do with JT here ?

22:30 From my exp the best move here is to block around 12% , so he is raising depending on the sizing we can call. If he didn't plan to bluff the random region he can still call Jhigh Khigh. And you take value from the 66/88 7x region who played that way.
Don't you think people who can bluff river are the ones already bluffing the turn so on the river there are "more" profiles who will not bluff ?

2:09 3Betting turn vs a human seems fine here. He is probably going to re raise the strong region, + I don't think players X enough 64s here. The only nuts is 77 and you block that.
I find it super easy for vilain to be quickly over condensed toward the Ax region raising for value, and we can put his Ax in a very tough spot when we 3Bet.

Good content there, specially from someone not playing only NLHE.

1:31 I think you missed a XR with AT. When he does such a small sizing I think he has less JJ+ in his range , so there are plenty of hands you can value and you're ahead of everything.

4:07 without being RO here. There are several factors I will consider here not to necessarily call.
First he bets extremely quickly.
2nd your range is heavily oriented toward Tx. Does he expect you to fold Tx in this spot ?
3rd I expect most of his values to play the same way, and even if I think JJ QQ doesn't size like that.

I don't think it's a bad call at all, but if his value region always got here and his bluffs are diluted in the x turn or x river, it means we will struggle to compensate our "he is never bluffing" EV loss by finding him bluffing enough in the scenarios where he has bluffs.

Overall when I tend to think a lot in this spot I end up choosing the most conservative option. Which here is the fold.
I think if he sizes bigger on the flop I will see more the AT JJ QQ portion and then AT might be a cool bluff XR cause he doesn't have a lot of 6x and some guys don't raise pre this region so we against some guys might have close to 100% FE.

14:10 Don't you think you missed value here by not putting his entire stack on the middle ? From my experience your rep more draw heavy, I don't think his Qx region is going to fold any sizes if he decides to call a raise, and you prevent XF with his draw and combo draw region.
Agree , prefer calling at this spr if vilain is aggressive enough. Raising is not that bad tho.

0:55 seems a fold to me on the flop. The kicker is bad for us as our two pairs are not clean, and when we hit the board will evolve often badly for our hand.
Solver folds here imo. River he is too polar to raise + you need him to call the weaker pot region, which I think from a Japan's-see player will not happen.

9:37 I think the call Preflop with KK is a big mistake here , Professor clearly told us he has a hand who wants to broke Preflop and he never has AA in this sizing.
Yes santosh is still in the pot but to have seen him playing quite a lot, he is not going to call any complete random hands here, and even if he does we loose too much EV against professor by letting the flop to not be good enough that he puts everything with TT.

15:30 I think Rampage is thinking opening against Santosh is +EV, but as you said it's absolutely not.

23:30 The river call is also really bad imo, of course Professor can have value cuts but it seems unlikely and the bluff will probably take other sizes. I don't like the turn bet too.

28:30 Absolutely terrible call by Martin. Santosh is never ever bluffing these type of lines, all the weak hands are going to call and he can play all the 8x like this.

31:50 I think Andy is just a reg fish gambling at this point. That's not even good for his image holy cow what is he doing. Do you think he wants to create an image of himself or something ? It's costly.

42:00 Your bet on the river is fine imo. I think you put more pressure by jamming. Impossible to know if he is acting like a whale by 5betting this type of hands.

44:10 Reminds me a whale I played in Aix en Provence, the guy had 80% vpip but was doing crazy fold and smart game postflop overall. Some VIP are definitely playing with their intuition, doesn't mean they are strong, most of them are terrible at the game, but they loose less than we think. Especially because it depends on the mood and the mindset of the fish. Santosh is clearly here trying to win and not throw away his money. Also he adapts well to the profil sometimes. Definitely a loosing player by far, but tbh with what we saw not the player loosing the most in this game...

46:23 Your sizing is too small imo. You can clearly size up with a lot of your hands, especially this one. In general people do not really adapt well to different Preflop sizes so bigger would be better here.

47:15 You should imo considering leading this turn. The range is quite weak / sd heavy or draw oriented. It's also very unlikely this is going to put a,lot of money in the pot with marginal hand, so against this raise better to 3B or call and lead. I prefer call and lead personally. I also personally think sets are often going to slow play here.
And the pb here is if you xc and don't XR or xc lead enough his EQR rise significantly which makes T7 a decent raise here.

49:10 clear fold with TT here. We need ~30% to call. In the scenario where he only has AA KK we loose quite a lot. Without being result oriented, he puts a 5Bet in less than 20 seconds, quickly take his chips , whereas a player with a decision will focus and don't make these types of eyes movements and look at what you have behind directly after you 4bet. Also his body language shows a lot of excitement but this is quite subjecting and it depends specifically on the player. For me it's AA 90% of the time.
Also I don't like the re raise with TT pre, it doesn't play well against Raymond ~4x 3bet range, he probably doesn't have KJ A5s with this sizing. Fold is better imo. Cool 4Bet if he 3B smaller and we know he doesn't flat the merge region like suited bw and 77-TT , otherwise his 3B region become too condense toward the stronger hand and 4Betting TT is not profitable anymore.

You're clearly by far the best in this line up, hope you crush everybody next time. Good Luck

Who is Rafael ?

(Edit) I know you don't answer comments, but it will be cool to know which stakes he is playing.
I don't want to be rude, he might be good but he didn't say one pertinent thing in the video and his comments are often useless.

Also I feel you don't go enough into details in a lot of spots. I wrote an other comment anyway but the TT can be discussed for a large amount of time.

30:12 dont you think his timing is in average too fast to be something else than two paires are Kx56 ?

What do you think of betting smaller also here like 10-15%

14:00 the T9 hand , why don't you consider doing a 10-15% pot block bet ? It seems you don't value too many hands when you do this sizing.

11:58 facing a snap check on the turn don't you think B turn + river is the play here ? If you have to bluff on the turn, would you prefer going for an intermediate sizing + river or only turn big and GU on blank ?

1:21 would you consider this hand to be exploitatively a good bluff on the river ? If you're forced to bluff here which sizing would you use ?

32:54dont you think this spot is underbluff by the pool due to our calling range on the turn mainly oriented toward flush ? It's tough to see someone wanting flush to fold using this sizing.

Hey teunuss

27min why don't you bet 100$ on the river ? ( I ask because it seems that's vilain is a Fish)

Also you should allow in the solver a smaller betsizing on the turn, it might be use by Q9 at some frec)

I play you in gg you do a lot of great calls vs me. Gonna bluff better :)

Hey sir,
the AK hand vs QT is pretty interesting.
What do you think of betting really small on the flop ? Like 3.5bb 4bb , if he folds some random J9 you re happy.
Also, what do you think of xjam the flop ? I saw recs who put you on AA KK QQ JJ all the time and find fold with a lot of PP. I assume AA KK from him is going to bet smaller on the flop, so I really like the xj.
I like the Xminraise also, you generate weak call and you can apply a lot of pressure on the turn, even if its not the option I prefer
What do you think of these options ?