Swifffft

I wouldn't have a flop raising range here. I'd just flat everything so as to distribute it properly over 3 streets instead of splitting my range otf and becoming vulnerable to value bets from strong hands when I peel.

I think most players follow the same idea so their range isn't capped when they flat flop.

This hand blocks bluffs and as a medium strength hand therefore becomes good to bet since at this point he is check/folding his equity share (which is good for us) and check/calling with whatever he wants to xc with.

If we had like AQ/66 or something betting would be worse because we unblock their turn check raising range and don't have as much equity vs their turn xc range. Having 99 with no heart is slightly worse also because fd's would make up a good chunk of a xr bluff line here if they are capable of it but I think the difference is negligible.

I like betting turn. I wouldn't bet small though. The majority of our range should be fd's, big overpairs, sets, straight draws and Jx, so with such an equity advantage and the desire to bet big on rivers I think betting like 75% with my range would be the play.

Betting turn with this specific combo is good because we block hands like T9/Q9 and fd etc that might go for a turn xr

River is very close. Yes he may value bet 8x but really this is one of the worst combo's for us to call since we block busted draws like Q9/T9/97, we have a heart which reduces missed fd combos (and those will usually just barrel) plus we block a thin vb with 99 itself and also 98. In addition to this, he has a lot of Jx in his range and people tend not to bluff too much in these spots so I think having enough equity to call otr is a push.

Not sure about everyone else's thinking here. I seem to look at it a different way.

I would be betting flop, simply for value. Seems like there's plenty of worse hands that call here and I think this makes a nice cbet/xc combo to play rivers with.

Are you guys just checking to protect give ups?

As played, otr, I would just check my whole range. I'd say this guy either has like A4s or 33 or something that decided to play deceptively ott or some hand that has either weak sdv that will 1. bluff a lot facing a bet (especially one like this) or 2. just fold since we rep a really strong range given flop texture doesn't contain many draws.

To me that makes betting worse than checking since we'd rather he just bluff river by checking
to them and then xr the strong parts of our range and protect some check/folds/maybe even go for some check/calls?

Kind of hard to get value from a guy like that with a weak overpair imo

With regards to your logic for checking turn and river, if villain might barrel into us and we can bluff catch, then why can't villain think we are barreling into him?

Also, checking just allows so many cheap SD's since when you check/call you always have SDV and villain will play really well with the middle of their range, like 88, 99, TT etc. In other words, they'll just check back river. By barreling he might call which is of course wrong because he can put us on air. What if we have AK in his eyes? He can be making a sizeable mistake folding. What about river? Is he going to fold in what would be a $12 pot for like $6 with TT or QQ or something when you can be completely bluffing? People hate folding, especially at 10nl. I think by checking it's too weak tight and easy for villain and we miss out on so much value immediately and the implied value based on our aggression levels/image.

Check your equity vs a fishes range. You can probably barrel this all in for value. Definitely never checking entire range against fish. That's ..... completely crazy.

Think this played really poorly. Assuming we have no reads, UTG is most likely a fish min raising, so 3betting this small is especially bad. Versus a reg with no history, probably go like $1.20 for value and vs a fish I'd go at least $1.50 probably a bit more sometimes. (You're never increasing their 4bet range, basically ever. They just called with insanely good odds IP deep, and get a great opportunity to try and win a huge pots vs you postflop)

The flop sizing is far too small. He's gonna call so often with trash. 7x, PP's, ace hi floats etc so betting this tiny is a big mistake in my opinion. I'd bet at least hpsb, maybe a touch more.

Turn, again, too small. I'd be barreling the turn around hp for value since people hate folding these paired boards. I wouldn't be surprised to see less than 7x call. Hands like 1 pair less than 7x, lots of 7x (A7, 67, 97, 87 etc) plus maybe AK or something from time to time. Also, they are likely to raise Jx here a fair amount on flop or turn (especially since we're deep and everybody thinks a raise on a dry board is a bluff) so we can be happier with our equity the vast majority of the time going to the river.

And because of the above reason, I'd also be barreling river for value. I'd bet a touch over half pot since the hpsb looks too value orientated and a slight increase in sizing won't narrow their range too much. I'd expect our river equity to be pretty high when called.