Suniram

Thanks, but don't take my words for more than they are. I'm a 5plo player...

Being against the NFD is the main concern when we get AI 3way, yeah. That way we are crushed, since it prolly won't be a naked FD and the 3rd player is blocked from having a fd, so hes superlikely to have made hands. That way we draw to runnerrunner boats and straights. If SPR was lower (maybe <3) Im shoving.

Yeah, def bet bigger OTT. No need to put imo. Might scare him off + we block 2 flush outs. I'd go like 80%. If he's bad and can't fold a set/good draw for sure I'd go bigger.

OTR, the logic 'I would call a shove so I can shove myself' is way off. If we check he can shove busted flushdraws which he won't call a shove with. By shoving we get value from hands he would check back. Since hes not gonna call us with worse than a boat our shove is as -EV as possible. He would have to call with worse >50% (which he doesnt) or fold better hands (which he doesnt).
I never claim to know the perfect answer for a hand as a principle, but I can't think of any possibility that shoving the river isnt burning money.

Are you suggesting to get 400bb in with bottom 2pair Vs a repot vs a shove from a fish+our call. That's brining money on the highest level. What do you expect him to show that we are doing really good against while we are crushed by sets, higher 2p or wrap (+pair) which we will get shown almost always? We're not even in great shape against 78 + pair. Fold! It's way closer to a fold against utg all in than to a call or even raise against reshove.

Pot preflop. Otf check and fold vs bet+call or shove vs bet+fold or check+bet.
By betting you can't fold and you don't want a 3w AI. If you get called you are in an ugly turn spot with shove left on anything but a K,q or heart. Also there's a small chance player last to act bet/folds vs 2 checks which is rather unlikey though.
Also this board is bad for your oop raising range so that's an argument for checking but not as important at our stakes as what I said above.

Edit: just looked at hand again and realized that spr is still pretty high on flop. Therefore I'm checking 100% and calling or folding depending on action and sizing. Vs bet+call I'm definitely folding. Generally leaning towards x/f in most scenarios.

You have top2 with an spr of 1.7. Call! Only 1 combo of kk. 99 and especially 44 are unlikely due to preflop.
If co opens wide u can 3bet but if not and/ or blinds are bad calling is good since your hand is nutty ((esp bc of nfd).

The hand is not really connected and also only one suit. 3 betting a 6% pfr nit opening from mp with only 100bb is the best u can do for him.
He opens from mp and 4 bets his aa so he problem has a bunch of rundowns and highcards left. You block pair outs which makes draws more likely + he doesn't raise flop so he mostly has draws with maybe a pair. By the river all the draws came in and he pots. There's (almost) literally no way he has nothing and and so how often so you see a 17/6 turn like 2pair into a bluff otr? This is a superclear fold otr!

You don't get called by worse and you even blocke a fd.+ villain is more likely to bet a set than a fd otf. X/folding river.

Definitely calling. No point in raising as you'd scare away weaker flush draws. If it gets repotted by mp/co and even shoved by btn I'm calling. Multiway is good because you get better odds and 3w all in your likely dominate a flush draw or, even better, 2 players have sets/2p+draw and block each others boat outs.

I agree wit has Collin as well. BTW, how do you get the population data?

1) Imo AJ otr is super unlikely. He won't call it every time preflop, will only x/r flop sometimes and most importantly OVERshove river when he doesn't beat KJ and potentially preflop slowplayed QQ-AA or post flop slowplayed 33,66JJ. He might bet like 1/3rd pot but I doubt that.

2) there is 1 combo of JJ missing in all the combo counting.

Awesome video! Super well structured, interesting spots and badass accent! :)

I like how u played it. I'd go a little bigger on the river just to not make him sigh-call 2p or sth because he thinks he "only has to be right so often...". $9,xx I'd say.

I like how you played it. X/jamming is very risky since he will def. x back some and sooo many turns make you not want to stack off. Any 4,6,7,9,T,J,K non diamond.
I also think potting is the way to go since he won't float as much and he knows that you're not folding once you cbet this flop, so why give him better odds?

agree

I'm not sure by all means but this has to be a x/r. You are at the very very top of your range and since villain opens CO (if he's not nitty) he should hit this board with draws, pair+draw quite often, which you crush if it continues.
Donking seems good mw or against a villain with low cbet or against an over-aggro one, so you can 3bet or call and x/r turn.
I like your sizing too, because it leaves some rooms for doubt. If you pot it on this flop with deep stacks it's obvious that you nailed it or at least have a strong wrap+sth.

I think I agree. Against this (pretty wildly guessed range) you have 35%:

(18%!AA):(26,28,68,88,66,8:dd,679T,879T,975:dd,75:dd,97:dd,754:dd)

After your bet you have to call of ~60bb to win ~12xbb so you prolly aren't making a mistake by calling. If villain is tight pre and/ or post things are getting closer.
I would prolly prefer to cbet somewhat smaller (half pot) and fold to a shove. The hands you are cbetting on this flop should either hit pretty hard (low rundowns, doulbepair->set) or wiff, so its a good play with your range I assume.

I mean, he's shoving every single turn. So why shove OTF? Sucks not having a bdfd tho...

I think you can add some substational ev if you call and only call again on rivers except 2,3, 4, 5, A.

I like it. CO will shove almost always here and you can wait and react to BN's play. Once BN just calls it an easy shove.
You could consider betting 50% of CO's stack so you can reshove over CO's shove and also don't give freecards if he indeed does check.

Aaah Morten! You added me on Skype today, I will write you soon. Epic support!

Do you think he x/shoves worse than a NF after being x/raised OTT? Why would he do that? Our range is suuuper NF-heavy. We almost never have a worse flush.

What do you expect him to bet/call OTT? Looks pretty flush and set/ 2p-heavy so he either has us beat or a worse flush that he prolly won't bet.

Oh, I missed that we only have half-pot left OTR. Makes folding harder but still I stay with the range I gave him and I don't think we should call that.

No link :)

Nice breakdown! Thank you very much :)